# Vitória Guimarães vs Casa Pia > Liga Portugal · Kickoff Mon 11 May 2026, 19:15 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/726) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Vitória Guimarães 0–1 Casa Pia ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home form and an attacking spark tip the balance tonight ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Mon 11 May 2026 at 19:15 UTC in the Liga Portugal calendar[^fact-1]. This fixture presents a straightforward competitive snapshot: a Vitória side that has found enough consistency to register results recently against a Casa Pia team that has struggled for returns over the same sample[^fact-2][^fact-3]. Venue specifics and table positions are not supplied; analysis remains focused on the available form and personnel signals. ## Form & momentum Recent form lines are blunt tools but they matter. Vitória’s last 10 matches read LWWDW, a sequence that equates to a 3-2-5 W-D-L split and an output of 1.10 points per game; their attacking and defensive returns over that stretch are 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per match[^fact-2]. Casa Pia arrive on a markedly poorer run: LLLDL in their last 10, a 0-4-6 W-D-L split with just 0.40 points per game and 0.40 goals scored against 1.50 conceded per match[^fact-3]. The momentum picture favours Vitória. The baseline differences are not marginal: Vitória is producing more goals and collecting more points per fixture than Casa Pia across the provided window[^fact-2][^fact-3]. Where small margins common in league football decide matches, those per-match deltas present a measurable tilt in Vitória’s direction. ## Personnel Vitória’s attacking spark in the recent run is concentrated around Gustavo Silva, who has contributed three goals and one assist in his last five appearances and carries an average match rating of 7.25 over that span[^fact-4]. That concentration of direct goal involvement and steady ratings suggests a player currently influencing outcomes in Vitória’s favour[^fact-4]. Casa Pia’s most-cited in-form outlet in the supplied facts is Jérémy Livolant, who registered zero goals, one assist and an average rating of 6.91 across his last five appearances[^fact-5]. Crucially, Livolant is suspended for the upcoming match and therefore absent, having logged 853 minutes in the recent run referenced[^fact-6]. That suspension removes Casa Pia’s most-mentioned attacking contributor from the contest and strips the away side of continuity built across those minutes[^fact-6]. There are no further squad lists or injury details provided; this analysis isolates the available form and the single heavy absence that the supplied facts identify[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6]. ## Where the model sees value — top edges vs the market, with odds Models built on the supplied metrics place weight on three inputs: recent points per game, goals scored/conceded per match, and the presence or absence of the teams’ most influential attacking contributors as measured in the facts. On those terms: - Vitória’s higher points-per-game (1.10) and superior goals-per-game (1.40) relative to Casa Pia (0.40 PPG; 0.40 goals per match) create an expectancy gap that the model treats as the primary edge[^fact-2][^fact-3]. - Defensively, Vitória concedes 1.70 per match in the sample while Casa Pia concedes 1.50; the model sees Vitória’s superior offensive output as the deciding factor since Casa Pia’s defensive numbers are only marginally better on paper[^fact-2][^fact-3]. - Personnel swing: Gustavo Silva’s direct contributions (three goals, one assist in five) and steady rating make him a clear positive input for Vitória’s attack, while Casa Pia losing Jérémy Livolant to suspension — a player who accumulated 853 minutes in the recent run — is a material negative for Casa Pia’s creative profile[^fact-4][^fact-6]. Given those inputs, the model flags the clearest value as markets that underweight Vitória’s chance to control the game narrative and overweights outcomes that rely on Casa Pia finding offensive fluency without their suspended contributor. Where market prices treat Casa Pia as a live attacking threat despite the suspension and the shown scoring drought, the model registers an edge. Exact market odds are not supplied in the facts; the edge is therefore directional: favor outcomes that reflect Vitória’s relative scoring form and Casa Pia’s attacking attrition[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-6]. ## Verdict The supplied evidence points to Vitória being the side with the clearer path to influence this match: better recent points and scoring rates, an in-form attacking outlet in Gustavo Silva, and the away team reduced by the suspension of its most-cited offensive figure[^fact-2][^fact-4][^fact-6]. Casa Pia’s numbers across the sample underline the scale of the uphill task ahead[^fact-3]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Mon 11 May 2026, 19:15 UTC — Liga Portugal [^fact-2]: **VSC recent form** — LWWDW last 10: 3-2-5 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-3]: **CPAC recent form** — LLLDL last 10: 0-4-6 (W-D-L), 0.40 PPG, 0.40 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-4]: **VSC in-form player** — Gustavo Silva — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.25. [^fact-5]: **CPAC in-form player** — Jérémy Livolant — 0 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.91. [^fact-6]: **CPAC key absence** — Jérémy Livolant out (suspension), 853 minutes in recent run. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .