# Alverca vs Estoril > Liga Portugal · Kickoff Sun 10 May 2026, 19:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/728) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Alverca 1–1 Estoril ## Pre-match deep dive ### Alverca’s late push meets Estoril’s fragile defensive numbers ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Sun 10 May 2026, 19:30 UTC in Liga Portugal[^fact-1]. This fixture is a late-season encounter with league points on the line; the timing and competition format are supplied above[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Alverca arrive with a mixed but improving sequence: their last 10 matches read LWLWW and their season return is 1.30 points per game, with averages of 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per match[^fact-2]. Those figures describe a side that is producing slightly more attacking output than earlier in the campaign while still conceding at a similar clip[^fact-2]. Estoril, by contrast, carry clear downtrend risk: their last 10 are DLLLL and their season return is 0.80 points per game, with 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per match[^fact-3]. The gulf in points-per-game (1.30 versus 0.80) and the higher goals-against rate for Estoril (1.50) highlight defensive vulnerability as a decisive form axis[^fact-2][^fact-3]. On pure momentum, Alverca are the hotter side across the supplied metrics[^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Alverca’s in-form contributor in recent outings is Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira, who has 1 goal and 2 assists in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.30 in that span[^fact-4]. That combination of direct goal involvement and consistent ratings marks him as a primary avenue for Alverca’s attacking danger over the final third[^fact-4]. Estoril’s clearest form signal comes from Yanis Begraoui, with 3 goals and no assists in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.03[^fact-5]. Begraoui’s scoring run stands out on a team that otherwise averages fewer than one goal per match in the supplied stats[^fact-3][^fact-5]. Estoril will also be missing Kévin Boma through injury, a named absence in the facts that narrows their personnel options[^fact-6]. The combination of Begraoui providing most of the recent finishing and Boma’s confirmed absence suggests a tilt in personnel balance that favours Alverca’s ability to press for chances[^fact-5][^fact-6]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s edges are driven by three anchored observations from the supplied facts. First, Alverca’s superior points-per-game (1.30) versus Estoril’s (0.80) flags a baseline team-strength advantage on the available metrics[^fact-2][^fact-3]. Second, Estoril concede at 1.50 goals per match against Alverca’s concession of 1.30, which increases the expected chance volume for Alverca’s attackers and for match outcomes that include multiple goals[^fact-2][^fact-3]. Third, the individual form vectors — Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira contributing directly to three goals in five matches for Alverca and Yanis Begraoui supplying three goals for Estoril over the same span — concentrate scoring dependence into a few players, which changes variance profiles for both sides[^fact-4][^fact-5]. Without supplied market odds in the facts, the model cannot compute a calibrated implied-probability edge against quoted prices; those market numbers are not part of the provided dataset. The relative-value suggestions, therefore, are qualitative and rooted to the supplied metrics: expect value in outcomes that reward Alverca’s modest scoring edge and Estoril’s higher goals-against rate — for example, markets that price Alverca to win outright or markets that pay up for elevated game totals more consistent with a 1.30/1.50 goals-for/against profile[^fact-2][^fact-3]. Additionally, player-prop attention should centre on Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira and Yanis Begraoui given their recent goal involvements and ratings, as those two account for the clearest forward-form signals in the facts[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The absence of Kévin Boma also pushes expected line-ups and workload toward the named in-form attackers[^fact-6][^fact-5]. ## Verdict On the supplied evidence, Alverca have the cleaner form vector: better points-per-game, slightly superior attacking output, and a clear in-form creator in Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira; Estoril arrive with worse recent results, a higher goals-against figure, and a key absence in Kévin Boma while relying heavily on Yanis Begraoui for goals[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6]. The model leans to the side that benefits from those edges but cannot translate that lean into a quantified market suggestion without external odds data, which are not part of the supplied facts[^fact-1]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 10 May 2026, 19:30 UTC — Liga Portugal [^fact-2]: **ALV recent form** — LWLWW last 10: 3-4-3 (W-D-L), 1.30 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-3]: **EPF recent form** — DLLLL last 10: 2-2-6 (W-D-L), 0.80 PPG, 0.90 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-4]: **ALV in-form player** — Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.30. [^fact-5]: **EPF in-form player** — Yanis Begraoui — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.03. [^fact-6]: **EPF key absence** — Kévin Boma out (injury). --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .