# Tondela vs Moreirense > Liga Portugal · Kickoff Mon 11 May 2026, 19:15 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/731) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Tondela 2–0 Moreirense ## Model verdict - **Tondela win:** 8% - **Draw:** 67% - **Moreirense win:** 25% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Stalemate favoured as markets misprice goal likelihoods and odds ## The stage This fixture kicks off Mon 11 May 2026 at 19:15 UTC in the closing weeks of Liga Portugal action[^fact-1]. The model assigns the match a heavy probability of a draw and treats the home side as a clear underdog on the numbers[^fact-2]. That combination frames the night as one in which a single moment could decide a tight contest rather than an open goal-fest[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent sequences show both teams treading water. The home side’s last 10 matches read WDLLD — 2 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses — with 1.00 point per game, 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per match[^fact-4]. The visitors carry WLWDL in their last 10 — 2 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses — with 0.90 points per game, 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Elo gives the visitors a modest edge once home advantage is applied: an Elo differential of -17 points for the home side[^fact-3]. The picture is not of runaway form or dominant attacking numbers on either side; both teams post sub-1.0 scoring rates and concede at higher rates, which helps explain why the model centres the match on parity rather than goal glut[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3]. ## Personnel The clearest attacking reference for the home side is Rony Lopes, who has 1 goal and 0 assists in his last 5 appearances and an average rating of 7.18 over that span[^fact-9]. For the visitors, Rodrigo Alonso Martín provided 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 appearances with an average rating of 6.92 — but he is suspended and therefore absent, having accumulated 716 minutes in the recent run prior to his suspension[^fact-10][^fact-12]. The home side also face a key unavailability: Jordan is out with an injury after 144 minutes in the recent run[^fact-11]. Personnel notes alter the framing: the visitors lose their most recent multi-competitions contributor in Rodrigo Alonso Martín, while the home side are missing a named squad member in Jordan — absences that point toward reduced offensive continuity on both benches[^fact-12][^fact-11]. Individual outputs available from the supplied form lines are modest, and the absences remove some attacking continuity rather than dramatically reshaping defensive profiles[^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value Three markets were compared to the model in this analysis[^fact-13]. The clearest edges are on match outcomes and total goals, with the model diverging markedly from market pricing. - Over 2.5 goals shows a model probability of 46% versus a market price implying 67.00 at Paddy Power, generating an edge of 44.1 percentage points in favour of the market pricing being rich on overs[^fact-6]. - Conversely, Under 2.5 goals carries a model probability of 54% against a market price implying 7.86 at Betfair Exchange, producing an edge of 41.4 percentage points in favour of the model’s under view[^fact-7]. - On the match-winner line, the model places the draw at 66% while markets offer a price of 3.75 at 1xbet, equating to an edge of 39.6 percentage points relative to the market[^fact-8]. Those three edges point the same direction conceptually: the model tilts decisively toward a low-scoring stalemate rather than an open, high-scoring contest, and markets appear to separate on that judgement depending on product and price[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. The confidence indicated around these picks is high in the model’s framework, reflected in the magnitude of the percentage-point edges reported[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ## Verdict The model’s headline probabilities put the draw squarely in the centre with a 67% likelihood, home victory at 8% and away victory at 25%, a spread that emphasises parity and the improbability of a one-sided result[^fact-2]. Factor in modest scoring rates, the visitor’s lost creative minutes through suspension and the home injury absence, and the strongest narrative is a tight, low-scoring draw rather than an expansive affair[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-12][^fact-11]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Mon 11 May 2026, 19:15 UTC — Liga Portugal [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 8% / Draw 67% / Away 25% (source: model; confidence high, 42 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — CDT vs MFC — Elo differential -17 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **CDT recent form** — WDLLD last 10: 2-4-4 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 0.90 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **MFC recent form** — WLWDL last 10: 2-3-5 (W-D-L), 0.90 PPG, 0.80 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 46% vs market price 67.00 at Paddy Power, edge 44.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 7.86 at Betfair Exchange, edge 41.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Draw in Match Winner — model 66% vs market price 3.75 at 1xbet, edge 39.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **CDT in-form player** — Rony Lopes — 1 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.18. [^fact-10]: **MFC in-form player** — Rodrigo Alonso Martín — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.92. [^fact-11]: **CDT key absence** — Jordan out (injury), 144 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **MFC key absence** — Rodrigo Alonso Martín out (suspension), 716 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .