# Preußen Münster vs Darmstadt 98 > 2. Bundesliga · Kickoff Sun 10 May 2026, 11:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/740) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Preußen Münster 1–1 Darmstadt 98 ## Model verdict - **Preußen Münster win:** 72% - **Draw:** 12% - **Darmstadt 98 win:** 17% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home advantage and sharp market edges set the agenda ## The stage Sunrise in the 2. Bundesliga brings a fixture tipped to be asymmetric in expectations: kickoff is listed for Sun 10 May 2026, 11:30 UTC[^fact-1]. The model places a heavy probability on the hosts, producing a Home 72% chance versus a Draw 12% and an Away 17% split, a verdict supplied with high confidence and a 55 percentage-point gap to the runner-up[^fact-2]. That probabilistic tilt frames the narrative before a ball is kicked. ## Form & momentum Form lines tell two slightly different stories. Preußen Münster's recent 10-match string reads DLLDD — translating to 1 win, 3 draws and 6 defeats — delivering 0.60 points per game, 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Darmstadt 98's last ten are LDLLL — 2 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses — a marginally better return of 0.90 points per game with 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per match[^fact-5]. On raw Elo with home advantage applied, Preußen Münster actually sit marginally behind Darmstadt by 9 points in the applied metric (Elo differential -9)[^fact-3]. The model’s stronger home lean therefore appears to synthesise more than just form and Elo — it overweights a home-side projection despite the small negative Elo edge[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Preußen Münster’s attacking rhythm features Imad Rondic, who has 2 goals and 1 assist across his last four appearances and an average match rating of 7.40 in that period[^fact-9]. That kind of short-form productivity matters for a side averaging 1.20 goals per match recently[^fact-4][^fact-9]. On the opposite flank, Darmstadt’s most conspicuous contributor is Fraser Hornby: 2 goals and 2 assists in his last four outings, with an average rating of 7.16[^fact-10]. Both figures underline the focal roles these players have carried into the fixture[^fact-9][^fact-10]. Absences complicate plans on both sides. Preußen Münster will be without Jano ter Horst through suspension; ter Horst accumulated 900 minutes in the recent run before missing this match[^fact-11]. Darmstadt lose Patric Pfeiffer to suspension as well; Pfeiffer logged 626 minutes in the recent cadence[^fact-12]. The two suspensions remove durable minutes from each side and are the clearest personnel shifts ahead of kickoff[^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s probability outputs produce three explicit market-value observations when compared with available prices across three analysed markets[^fact-13]. First, the Over 2.5 goals line carries a material model-market discrepancy: the model assigns a 56% chance to Over 2.5 while the market price at Paddy Power implies 67.00; the stated edge is 54.6 percentage points and flagged with high confidence[^fact-6][^fact-13]. Second, the Match Winner market shows a pronounced home lean from the model: Home is 72% against a market price of 2.49 at 22Bet, an edge of 31.4 percentage points with high confidence[^fact-7][^fact-13]. Third, an apparently contradictory entry appears in the comparisons: Away in Match Winner is listed with a model 60% chance versus a market price of 2.88 at Betfair Exchange, producing a 24.8 percentage-point edge (also high confidence)[^fact-8][^fact-13]. All three value notes come from direct model-versus-market comparisons and are presented with high confidence by the modelling process[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-13]. Those three edges read as conflicting from a plain-probability perspective — the model’s published overall verdict is firmly home, yet one of the itemised value comparisons lists a 60% model probability for an away winner[^fact-2][^fact-8]. The product of these entries is a reminder that markets and specific books price outcomes differently and that multiple market inefficiencies can coexist across different platforms[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-13]. ## Verdict The model’s headline lean is unequivocal: Home 72% versus Draw 12% and Away 17%, a confidence-backed projection that frames Preußen Münster as the expected side despite a slight negative applied Elo differential of -9[^fact-2][^fact-3]. Personnel shifts cut both ways with ter Horst’s and Pfeiffer’s suspensions removing significant minutes from each side[^fact-11][^fact-12], while Rondic and Hornby remain the clearest form references for attack[^fact-9][^fact-10]. The market comparisons flag multiple high-confidence edges across three analysed markets, notably in Over 2.5 goals and the home match-winner price, even as an oddball away-win model figure appears in the exchange comparison[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-13]. The clean takeaway: the model strongly favours the hosts, but the market landscape shows several divergent prices worth noting before final selection[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-13]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 10 May 2026, 11:30 UTC — 2. Bundesliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 72% / Draw 12% / Away 17% (source: model; confidence high, 55 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Preußen Münster vs SVD — Elo differential -9 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Preußen Münster recent form** — DLLDD last 10: 1-3-6 (W-D-L), 0.60 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 2.50 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **SVD recent form** — LDLLL last 10: 2-3-5 (W-D-L), 0.90 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 56% vs market price 67.00 at Paddy Power, edge 54.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Home in Match Winner — model 72% vs market price 2.49 at 22Bet, edge 31.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Away in Match Winner — model 60% vs market price 2.88 at Betfair Exchange, edge 24.8 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **Preußen Münster in-form player** — Imad Rondic — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.40. [^fact-10]: **SVD in-form player** — Fraser Hornby — 2 goals, 2 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.16. [^fact-11]: **Preußen Münster key absence** — Jano ter Horst out (suspension), 900 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **SVD key absence** — Patric Pfeiffer out (suspension), 626 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .