# Mallorca vs Villarreal > La Liga · Kickoff Sun 10 May 2026, 12:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/742) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Mallorca 1–1 Villarreal ## Model verdict - **Mallorca win:** 8% - **Draw:** 85% - **Villarreal win:** 7% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model leans heavy on draw despite clear attacking value bets ## The stage Sun 10 May 2026, 12:00 UTC — La Liga kickoff and a fixture that carries end-of-season implications for both sides by timing alone[^fact-1]. The game is listed with Mallorca as the home side and Villarreal as the visitors in the model's setup[^fact-3]. The model gives an overwhelming probability to one outcome, a split that frames the preview: Home 8% / Draw 85% / Away 7%[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Mallorca enter with a recent sequence rendered as WLDWW across their last 10 matches and register 1.40 points per game, scoring 1.30 and conceding 1.20 on average per match in that period[^fact-4]. Villarreal’s last 10 read WWDWL, a 6-2-2 line that translates to 2.00 points per game with 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded on average[^fact-5]. The Elo matrix applied by the model gives Villarreal a 90-point edge even after home advantage is factored in, a material tilt that helps explain the model’s skew toward a stalemate outcome[^fact-3]. ## Personnel Mallorca’s form player is Samú Costa: 2 goals and 2 assists in his last five appearances with an average rating of 7.18[^fact-9]. Villarreal’s current standout is Nicolas Pépé, who brings 3 goals and 2 assists from his last five outings and an average rating of 7.46[^fact-10]. The availability picture has knocks on both sides: Manu Morlanes is absent for Mallorca with 503 minutes in the recent run lost to the squad[^fact-11], and Villarreal are missing Sergi Cardona, who accounted for 537 minutes in their recent run[^fact-12]. Those absences are noted by the model when projecting outcomes and individual impact[^fact-2]. ## Where the model sees value The model identifies three clear edges versus market prices across the markets analysed[^fact-13]. First, Over 2.5 goals shows a model probability of 57% against a market price quoted at 5.50 on Paddy Power, producing the largest edge cited by the model at 38.7 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. Second, the model flags the away match-winner as undervalued: a 54% model probability versus a 3.10 market price on Betfair Exchange, an edge of 21.6 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-7]. Third, the draw also carries measurable value: the model assigns a 42% chance to the draw against a 3.70 market price at 1xbet, an edge of 15.1 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-8]. All three edges come from the set of three markets the team compared against the model[^fact-13]. ## Verdict The model’s central lean is emphatically toward a draw — the single largest probability at 85% — despite Villarreal’s positive form and the Elo advantage, and even while the model simultaneously highlights attacking value on Over 2.5 goals and an unusually strong edge on the away selection and the draw across the markets analysed[^fact-2][^fact-5][^fact-3][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-13]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 10 May 2026, 12:00 UTC — La Liga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 8% / Draw 85% / Away 7% (source: model; confidence high, 77 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — MLL vs VIL — Elo differential -90 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **MLL recent form** — WLDWW last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **VIL recent form** — WWDWL last 10: 6-2-2 (W-D-L), 2.00 PPG, 1.90 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 57% vs market price 5.50 at Paddy Power, edge 38.7 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Away in Match Winner — model 54% vs market price 3.10 at Betfair Exchange, edge 21.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Draw in Match Winner — model 42% vs market price 3.70 at 1xbet, edge 15.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **MLL in-form player** — Samú Costa — 2 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.18. [^fact-10]: **VIL in-form player** — Nicolas Pépé — 3 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.46. [^fact-11]: **MLL key absence** — Manu Morlanes out (injury), 503 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **VIL key absence** — Sergi Cardona out (injury), 537 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .