# FC Andorra vs Las Palmas > La Liga 2 · Kickoff Sun 10 May 2026, 12:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/743) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** FC Andorra 5–1 Las Palmas ## Model verdict - **FC Andorra win:** 8% - **Draw:** 85% - **Las Palmas win:** 7% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model pins draw as value accumulates on away and over ## The stage This fixture pits FC Andorra vs UD Las Palmas, a late-season La Liga 2 clash kicking off Sun 10 May 2026, 12:00 UTC. [^fact-1] The match carries ordinary league stakes within La Liga 2, with both sides arriving with differing statistical narratives and a model that heavily favours a stalemate. [^fact-2] ## Form & momentum Formlines read close but not identical. FC Andorra’s ten-match snapshot is LWWWW (6-2-2 W-D-L), producing 2.00 points per game with 2.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded on average; that sequence points to a side scoring freely while protecting its goal to a degree. [^fact-4] Las Palmas sit on WWWLW (7-0-3 W-D-L) with 2.10 points per game, 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match, suggesting slightly greater defensive fragility but a marginally higher points return. [^fact-5] Elo places a modest edge on the home side once venue adjustment is applied: an Elo differential of +65 in Andorra’s favour. [^fact-3] The model, however, collapses the win probabilities toward a draw, assigning Home 8% / Draw 85% / Away 7%, a distribution that underlines expectations of a low-decibel, shared outcome rather than a clear winner. [^fact-2] ## Personnel FC Andorra’s attacking rhythm has been helped by Dani Villahermosa, who has contributed 1 goal and 3 assists across his last five appearances and carries an average rating of 7.23 in that span. [^fact-9] The absence of Edgar González through injury is the clearest personnel hole on the Andorran side. [^fact-11] Las Palmas rely on Manu Fuster as a recent creative fulcrum; he has 1 goal and 2 assists in his last five outings with an average rating of 7.25. [^fact-10] Their most notable current absentee is Viti Rozada, sidelined by injury after contributing 812 minutes in the recent run prior to his absence. [^fact-12] No further squad context is available in the supplied facts; the available data points make the contest as much about small margins and current form as about any wholesale tactical overhaul. ## Where the model sees value The model flags three edges against market pricing across 3 market(s) analysed. [^fact-13] - Over 2.5 goals: the model places the probability at 48% versus a market-implied price of 67.00 at Paddy Power, producing an edge of 46.0 percentage points and rated with high confidence. [^fact-6] - Away match winner: the model gives the away side a 43% probability versus market price 2.88 at 22Bet, an edge of 8.0 percentage points (high confidence). [^fact-7] - Draw match winner: the model estimates a 36% chance versus market price 3.50 at Betfair Exchange, with an edge of 7.9 percentage points (mid confidence). [^fact-8] These three contrasts show where the model diverges from market-implied probabilities despite its own central verdict; notably, the model’s public output still favours the draw overwhelmingly while privately identifying priced inefficiencies on over 2.5 and the away win. [^fact-2] [^fact-6] [^fact-7] [^fact-8] ## Verdict The model’s primary lean is a draw at 85%, a dominant central expectation even with an Elo tilt toward the hosts of +65. [^fact-2] The clearest market discrepancies arise on Over 2.5 goals and the Away match-winner, which the model lists as the top value opportunities across the 3 market(s) analysed. [^fact-6] [^fact-7] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 10 May 2026, 12:00 UTC — La Liga 2 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 8% / Draw 85% / Away 7% (source: model; confidence high, 77 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — AND vs LPA — Elo differential +65 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **AND recent form** — LWWWW last 10: 6-2-2 (W-D-L), 2.00 PPG, 2.10 goals scored / 0.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **LPA recent form** — WWWLW last 10: 7-0-3 (W-D-L), 2.10 PPG, 1.70 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 48% vs market price 67.00 at Paddy Power, edge 46.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Away in Match Winner — model 43% vs market price 2.88 at 22Bet, edge 8.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Draw in Match Winner — model 36% vs market price 3.50 at Betfair Exchange, edge 7.9 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-9]: **AND in-form player** — Dani Villahermosa — 1 goals, 3 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.23. [^fact-10]: **LPA in-form player** — Manu Fuster — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.25. [^fact-11]: **AND key absence** — Edgar González out (injury). [^fact-12]: **LPA key absence** — Viti Rozada out (injury), 812 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .