# Fiorentina vs Genoa > Serie A · Kickoff Sun 10 May 2026, 13:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/752) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Fiorentina 0–0 Genoa ## Model verdict - **Fiorentina win:** 82% - **Draw:** 12% - **Genoa win:** 6% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Favourites backed by model amid market defensive mispricing ## The stage Kickoff is at 13:00 UTC on Sun 10 May 2026 in Serie A[^fact-1]. This is a late-season fixture where the model places overwhelming probability on the home side: Home 82% / Draw 12% / Away 6%[^fact-2]. The model’s confidence gap to the runner-up is large, described as 70 percentage points[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent form lines read similarly on paper but tell a different story under the surface. Fiorentina’s last 10 shows LDDWW, summarised as 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses, producing 1.60 points per game with 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Genoa’s last 10 sequence is DLWWL, recorded as 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses, also at 1.60 points per game but with 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per match[^fact-5]. On raw points-per-game and attacking/defensive per-match rates the two sides are level; the model’s separation rests elsewhere. That elsewhere is captured by an Elo differential: Fiorentina carry a +120 Elo points edge over Genoa after home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. The Elo gap, combined with the model probabilities, explains why the home result is the dominant forecast despite matched PPG figures[^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Personnel In-form contributors and absences shape how the match is likely to unfold. Jack Harrison has delivered 1 goal and 2 assists in his last 5 appearances, with an average rating of 6.75[^fact-9]. On the away side, Tommaso Baldanzi arrives with 0 goals and 2 assists in his last 3 appearances and an average rating of 7.25[^fact-10]. Those are the two named form references the model highlights for each side. Availability notes matter: Fiorentina will be missing Robin Gosens through injury; Gosens logged 518 minutes in the recent run before his absence[^fact-11]. Genoa will be without Junior Messias due to injury; Messias accounted for 398 minutes in the recent run[^fact-12]. The parameters of those absences are part of the model’s inputs and feed into the projected balance between attacking width and creativity on each flank[^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value Three markets were compared against the model, and three specific edges emerge from that analysis[^fact-13]. First and largest: the model puts No in Both Teams to Score at 100% against a market price of 2.02 on Betfair Exchange, a very large edge quantified at +50.5 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. The market is pricing a serious chance of both teams scoring; the model reads the match as overwhelmingly likely to finish with only one side—or neither—finding the net[^fact-6]. Second, the model spots value on Under/Over 2.5 goals but flipped to the market’s framing: Over 2.5 sits at a model probability of 49% versus a market price implying odds 180.00 on Betfair Exchange, an edge of +48.8 percentage points and marked as high confidence[^fact-7]. The raw model probability is essentially coin-flip territory, but the reported market number conveys a pronounced mispricing in exchange liquidity that the model flags[^fact-7]. Third, the Draw in Match Winner shows a model probability of 39% against a market price implying 3.45 on Betfair Exchange, an edge of +9.7 percentage points with high confidence[^fact-8]. That is the smallest edge of the three but still notable given the model’s overall tilt; it helps explain why the market’s pricing of non-home outcomes diverges from the model’s heavy home lean[^fact-8]. Collectively, these opportunities derive from a three-market comparison done by the model across the available exchanges and lines[^fact-13]. The standout signal is the no-BTS projection and the large perceived mispricing around match-level goal expectancy[^fact-6][^fact-7]. ## Verdict The model leans sharply to the home side — Home 82% — underpinned by a +120 Elo edge and a wide confidence gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2][^fact-3]. Despite similar recent PPG figures for both teams, the combination of Elo, minutes lost to injury and the distribution of recent attacking returns drives that lean; the market dislocations identified are strongest on No Both Teams to Score and the goals total lines[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 10 May 2026, 13:00 UTC — Serie A [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 82% / Draw 12% / Away 6% (source: model; confidence high, 70 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — FIO vs GEN — Elo differential +120 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **FIO recent form** — LDDWW last 10: 4-4-2 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 0.90 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **GEN recent form** — DLWWL last 10: 5-1-4 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 100% vs market price 2.02 at Betfair Exchange, edge 50.5 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 49% vs market price 180.00 at Betfair Exchange, edge 48.8 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Draw in Match Winner — model 39% vs market price 3.45 at Betfair Exchange, edge 9.7 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **FIO in-form player** — Jack Harrison — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.75. [^fact-10]: **GEN in-form player** — Tommaso Baldanzi — 0 goals, 2 assists in last 3 appearances, avg rating 7.25. [^fact-11]: **FIO key absence** — Robin Gosens out (injury), 518 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **GEN key absence** — Junior Messias out (injury), 398 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .