# Burnley vs Aston Villa > Premier League · Kickoff Sun 10 May 2026, 13:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/753) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Burnley 2–2 Aston Villa ## Model verdict - **Burnley win:** 8% - **Draw:** 85% - **Aston Villa win:** 7% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Draw-centric model makes this a low-scoring expectation ## The stage This fixture is scheduled for kickoff at 13:00 UTC on Sun 10 May 2026 in the Premier League[^fact-1]. The competitive context is straightforward: a game that the model strongly views as unlikely to produce a home victory and overwhelmingly tilted toward a stalemate on the board[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Burnley arrive on a run that reads LLLLL over their last 10, registering 0 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses (0-2-8) and averaging 0.20 points per game; their goals per match split is 0.80 scored and 2.20 conceded[^fact-4]. Aston Villa’s last 10 are LLWDW, a 2-2-6 sequence (2 wins, 2 draws, 6 losses) with 0.80 points per game and a goals for/against of 1.20/2.00 per match[^fact-5]. The model also applies an Elo comparison that leaves Burnley with a -78-point edge relative to Villa once home advantage is accounted for[^fact-3]. Taken together, the data show both sides struggling defensively but Villa carrying a clear structural edge on comparative form metrics[^fact-3][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Burnley’s most notable in-form player is Zian Flemming, who has 2 goals and 0 assists in his last five appearances, with an average match rating of 6.85[^fact-9]. Aston Villa’s form focal point is Ollie Watkins, on 3 goals and 1 assist in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.26[^fact-10]. Availability issues matter: Burnley will be without Mike Tresor due to injury, a player who featured for 18 minutes in his recent run before the absence[^fact-11]. Villa are missing Amadou Onana through injury as well, a player who logged 691 minutes in his recent run prior to being ruled out[^fact-12]. These absences remove contributors on both sides but the minutes lost for Villa’s absentee are markedly larger in the supplied data[^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value Three markets were compared against the model for this fixture[^fact-13]. The largest single discrepancy is on the match-winner market: the model gives the draw an 85% probability versus a market price of 4.37 at 1xbet, producing an edge of 62.3 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. The model also flags the Over in Goals O/U 2.5 as materially mispriced: model probability 49% against a market price of 199.66 on Betfair Exchange, an edge of 48.7 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-7]. Finally, the model registers an edge on Away in Match Winner — model 73% vs a market price of 1.66 at Betfair Exchange, an edge of 12.5 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-8]. It is unusual to see both draw and away-win endorsements from the same model framework; the sizing of the edges explains this tension. The draw carries the biggest single gap between model and market and is the dominant signal by raw edge size[^fact-6]. The over 2.5 goals market sits near coin-flip territory in model probability while still showing a very large edge vs the market price, highlighting divergent market pricing rather than model certainty[^fact-7]. The away-win edge is smaller by comparison but still flagged with high confidence[^fact-8]. All three were among the market instruments analysed against the model for this match[^fact-13]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is overwhelmingly toward a draw, assigning it an 85% probability and dwarfing both home and away chances — home 8%, away 7% — with high confidence reflected in a 77 percentage-point gap to the runner-up in the model verdict[^fact-2]. The picture is of two struggling attacks and porous defenses, a substantive Elo deficit for Burnley despite home advantage, and a model that sees the board as dominated by parity rather than a decisive result[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 10 May 2026, 13:00 UTC — Premier League [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 8% / Draw 85% / Away 7% (source: model; confidence high, 77 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — BUR vs AVL — Elo differential -78 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **BUR recent form** — LLLLL last 10: 0-2-8 (W-D-L), 0.20 PPG, 0.80 goals scored / 2.20 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **AVL recent form** — LLWDW last 10: 2-2-6 (W-D-L), 0.80 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 2.00 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Draw in Match Winner — model 85% vs market price 4.37 at 1xbet, edge 62.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 49% vs market price 199.66 at Betfair Exchange, edge 48.7 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Away in Match Winner — model 73% vs market price 1.66 at Betfair Exchange, edge 12.5 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **BUR in-form player** — Zian Flemming — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.85. [^fact-10]: **AVL in-form player** — Ollie Watkins — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.26. [^fact-11]: **BUR key absence** — Mike Tresor out (injury), 18 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **AVL key absence** — Amadou Onana out (injury), 691 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .