# Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg > Bundesliga · Kickoff Sun 10 May 2026, 13:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/756) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Hamburger SV 3–2 SC Freiburg ## Model verdict - **Hamburger SV win:** 8% - **Draw:** 85% - **SC Freiburg win:** 7% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Draw-heavy showdown as model leans squarely toward stalemate ## The stage This fixture arrives on Sun 10 May 2026 with kickoff at 13:30 UTC in the Bundesliga[^fact-1]. The raw context from the model is striking: it assigns just 8% to the home win, 85% to a draw and 7% to the away victory, with a reported confidence gap of 77 percentage points to the runner-up prediction[^fact-2]. The numbers set expectation for a structurally low-decision game rather than a classic home-favourite assignment[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Hamburger SV come into the match with a WLLLD sequence across their last 10 matches, translating to 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses (0.80 points per game), averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per match in that span[^fact-4]. Freiburg’s recent ten matches read DLWWL, equivalent to 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses (1.40 points per game), with 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per match over the same window[^fact-5]. The model-adjusted Elo places HSV slightly ahead by 53 points after applying home advantage[^fact-3], which suggests an underlying parity that the surface form numbers only partly reflect[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Hamburger SV’s in-form attacking reference is Robert Glatzel, who has 2 goals and 1 assist in his last five appearances and carries an average rating of 6.92 across those games[^fact-9]. HSV must also navigate the absence of William Mikelbrencis, ruled out through injury and responsible for 751 minutes in the recent run[^fact-11]. For Freiburg, Johan Manzambi is the player in form, with 2 goals and 1 assist in his last four appearances and an average rating of 7.39 in that stretch[^fact-10]. Freiburg’s availability will be affected by the absence of Yuito Suzuki, who is injured and logged 571 minutes in the recent run[^fact-12]. Those personnel notes frame both squads as missing contributors while still carrying attacking threats at the top end of recent performances[^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value Three market comparisons were analysed against the model[^fact-13]. The clearest edge sits on Over 2.5 goals: the model projects 62% while the market price at Paddy Power implies 67.00 (edge 60.0 percentage points, flagged with high confidence)[^fact-6][^fact-13]. Paradoxically, the model also finds value on Under 2.5 in a different market line: 54% versus a market price of 4.25 at DanskeSpil, creating an edge of 30.9 percentage points with high confidence[^fact-7][^fact-13]. On the match result, the model specifically highlights the draw as a value entry: a 41% model probability against a Betfair Exchange price of 3.85, yielding a 15.0 percentage-point edge (high confidence)[^fact-8][^fact-13]. These ostensibly contradictory edges expose the core uncertainty the model carries: a strong tilt toward stalemate on the 1X2 distribution while simultaneously flagging both sides of the goals market when sportsbooks’ pricing diverges from model-implied probabilities[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. The Over 2.5 signal stems from the model’s internal weighting of chance quality and conversion rates, whereas the Under 2.5 signal appears when market odds decouple sufficiently to present opportunity on a lower-goals outcome—both edges are presented with high confidence by the model in its market comparisons[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-13]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is emphatically toward a draw, assigning an 85% probability and a strong confidence gap to that outcome versus either side winning[^fact-2]; the Elo picture nudges the home side slightly ahead by 53 points when home advantage is applied, but not enough to overturn the draw-centric forecast[^fact-3]. Personnel absences complicate attacking continuity for both teams while the in-form names offer targets that could swing a tight game if individual moments arrive[^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-11][^fact-12]. The market comparisons show differing ways to exploit pricing discrepancies, with the draw and both goal-line extremes identified as model edges depending on bookmaker pricing[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-13]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 10 May 2026, 13:30 UTC — Bundesliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 8% / Draw 85% / Away 7% (source: model; confidence high, 77 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — HSV vs SCF — Elo differential +53 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **HSV recent form** — WLLLD last 10: 2-2-6 (W-D-L), 0.80 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **SCF recent form** — DLWWL last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 62% vs market price 67.00 at Paddy Power, edge 60.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 4.25 at DanskeSpil, edge 30.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Draw in Match Winner — model 41% vs market price 3.85 at Betfair Exchange, edge 15.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **HSV in-form player** — Robert Glatzel — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.92. [^fact-10]: **SCF in-form player** — Johan Manzambi — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.39. [^fact-11]: **HSV key absence** — William Mikelbrencis out (injury), 751 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **SCF key absence** — Yuito Suzuki out (injury), 571 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .