# Antwerp vs Sporting Charleroi > Pro League · Kickoff Sun 10 May 2026, 14:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/758) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Antwerp 0–1 Sporting Charleroi ## Pre-match deep dive ### Key striker absence shifts balance in tight Pro League showdown ## The stage Sunday's early kickoff arrives on 10 May 2026 at 14:00 UTC in the Pro League[^fact-1]. The match carries the usual late-season weight where small margins matter: both sides are in runs that could determine where momentum and points land in the final weeks[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Antwerp arrive with a recent sequence reading LWWWL and a 4-2-4 win-draw-loss split across their last 10 outings, producing 1.40 points per game, scoring 1.20 and conceding 1.40 goals per match in that span[^fact-2]. Sporting Charleroi are marginally more conservative across ten, shown as WWDLW and a 3-2-5 split, collecting 1.10 points per game while averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded[^fact-3]. Those raw per-game figures frame a narrow gap: Antwerp create and concede slightly more than Charleroi, while converting into more points on average[^fact-2][^fact-3]. The sequence patterns underline that both teams have recent wins and slips in near-equal measure; form is not screaming for a clear favourite on current evidence[^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Antwerp's most in-form attacking outlet over the recent run was Vincent Janssen — 3 goals and 2 assists in his last 4 appearances, with an average rating of 7.64[^fact-4]. That attacking output is now absent: Janssen is injured and ruled out after contributing 683 minutes in the recent run[^fact-6]. His absence removes the clear focal point who produced direct goal involvements and the high average match rating that accompanied those minutes[^fact-4][^fact-6]. Sporting Charleroi's bright individual contributor has been Antoine Bernier, who has 3 goals and 1 assist across his last 5 appearances and an average rating of 7.19[^fact-5]. Charleroi also face an injury issue of their own: Yassine Titraoui is out after 566 minutes in the recent run[^fact-7]. Both sides therefore enter with one notable creator/finisher unavailable and one in-form player available, a structural symmetry that leans attention toward how each squad reshuffles without its sidelined contributor[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ## Where the model sees value The model flags three practical edges worth tracking against market pricing: first, the removal of Antwerp's principal recent source of goals and assists materially lowers their immediate attacking ceiling relative to their recent per-game outputs[^fact-2][^fact-4][^fact-6]. Second, Charleroi retain Antoine Bernier's form-driven output, which concentrates their finishing threat into a single reliable channel[^fact-3][^fact-5]. Third, the defensives of both teams have conceded at similar low-single-digit rates across the sample, which suggests matches between them can stay tight and low-scoring absent the sidelined striker[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-6][^fact-7]. Because the supplied data do not include live market prices, the model maps these structural edges onto probabilities rather than fixed odds. In plain terms: if the market still prices Antwerp as the clear attacking favourite, that price understates the impact of Janssen's absence on Antwerp's recent 1.20 goals-per-match output[^fact-2][^fact-6]. Conversely, if Charleroi are offered at a price that ignores Bernier's scoring run, that too would look mispriced relative to their 1.10 goals-per-match in recent fixtures[^fact-3][^fact-5]. The most robust relative value arises when the market treats this as a straightforward two-way swing without accounting for the lost minutes and concentrated finishing threats recorded in the supplied run data[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ## Verdict On the supplied evidence, this is a tight late-season fixture where Antwerp's recent goal production is meaningfully weakened by Vincent Janssen's absence despite their slightly superior points-per-game in the sample, while Charleroi retain an in-form finisher in Antoine Bernier; that combination points to a low-margin game where Charleroi's concentrated threat and Antwerp's diminished attacking profile are the decisive storylines[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 10 May 2026, 14:00 UTC — Pro League [^fact-2]: **ANT recent form** — LWWWL last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-3]: **SPC recent form** — WWDLW last 10: 3-2-5 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-4]: **ANT in-form player** — Vincent Janssen — 3 goals, 2 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.64. [^fact-5]: **SPC in-form player** — Antoine Bernier — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.19. [^fact-6]: **ANT key absence** — Vincent Janssen out (injury), 683 minutes in recent run. [^fact-7]: **SPC key absence** — Yassine Titraoui out (injury), 566 minutes in recent run. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .