# Sion vs Thun > Super League · Kickoff Sun 10 May 2026, 14:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/763) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Sion 2–0 Thun ## Model verdict - **Sion win:** 8% - **Draw:** 86% - **Thun win:** 6% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Draw-heavy projection dominates market gaps and team form ## The stage This is a Super League fixture kicking off Sun 10 May 2026 at 14:30 UTC, set inside the routine cadence of the run-in window[^fact-1]. The model treats this as a low-scoring, low-variance prospect compared with typical league matches, reflected in its outcome probabilities[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Sion’s recent sequence reads WWWWD across their last 10 matches, translating to 6-3-1 (W‑D‑L), 2.10 points per game, and an attacking/defensive profile of 2.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Thun arrive in markedly different nick: LLWLL over 10, presented as 5-1-4 (W‑D‑L), 1.60 points per game, with 1.90 scored and 1.30 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The Elo sheet gives Sion a clear edge, with a +97-point differential once home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. Taken together, form and Elo point toward Sion controlling large portions of matches while Thun’s output looks less consistent[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Sion’s in-form outlet is Ilyas Chouaref, who has contributed 2 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 appearances and carries an average rating of 7.29 over that span[^fact-9]. Thun’s brightest individual performer in recent weeks is Michael Heule, with 1 goal, 2 assists and an average rating of 7.33 in his last 5 appearances[^fact-10]. Suspension shapes both line-ups: Sion will be missing Kreshnik Hajrizi, who logged 890 minutes in the recent run before suspension[^fact-11]. Thun are without Fabio Fehr, who played 772 minutes in the recent run prior to his ban[^fact-12]. Those absences remove two regular minutes-earners from each starting XI and may force subtle role shifts but the model’s ratings already account for the minutes lost[^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s raw outcome probabilities are skewed toward the draw at 86% according to the latest run, with home and away probabilities at 8% and 6% respectively[^fact-2]. That heavy draw tilt creates multiple market edges when compared with current prices across three markets analysed[^fact-13]. - Value pick #1: Match Winner — Draw. Model 86% vs market price 4.40 at Betfair Exchange, edge 63.3 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. - Value pick #2: Goals O/U 2.5 — Over. Model 55% vs market price 67.00 at Paddy Power, edge 54.0 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-7]. - Value pick #3: Match Winner — Away. Model 55% vs market price 4.40 at Betfair Exchange, edge 32.6 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-8]. Those three contrasts illustrate the tension: the model overwhelmingly favours a deadlocked result but also detects a material chance that the fixture clears the 2.5-goal line, hence the Over edge[^fact-2][^fact-7]. The noted edges come from direct comparisons between model probabilities and the market prices in the three markets analysed[^fact-13][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ## Verdict The model leans firmly toward a draw — an 86% probability — driven by Sion’s superior Elo position (+97) and their recent low-concession profile, even after accounting for Hajrizi’s suspension[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-11]. If an alternative outcome arrives, the model flags an above-average chance the match will clear 2.5 goals, a secondary signal worth noting in the context of the market gaps identified[^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 10 May 2026, 14:30 UTC — Super League [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 8% / Draw 86% / Away 6% (source: model; confidence high, 78 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — SIO vs THU — Elo differential +97 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **SIO recent form** — WWWWD last 10: 6-3-1 (W-D-L), 2.10 PPG, 2.00 goals scored / 0.60 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **THU recent form** — LLWLL last 10: 5-1-4 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 1.90 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Draw in Match Winner — model 86% vs market price 4.40 at Betfair Exchange, edge 63.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 55% vs market price 67.00 at Paddy Power, edge 54.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Away in Match Winner — model 55% vs market price 4.40 at Betfair Exchange, edge 32.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **SIO in-form player** — Ilyas Chouaref — 2 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.29. [^fact-10]: **THU in-form player** — Michael Heule — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.33. [^fact-11]: **SIO key absence** — Kreshnik Hajrizi out (suspension), 890 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **THU key absence** — Fabio Fehr out (suspension), 772 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .