# FC Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen > Eredivisie · Kickoff Sun 10 May 2026, 14:45 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/766) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** FC Groningen 2–1 NEC Nijmegen ## Model verdict - **FC Groningen win:** 8% - **Draw:** 85% - **NEC Nijmegen win:** 7% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model overwhelmingly backs a draw; goals market offers clearer edge ## The stage Sun 10 May 2026, 14:45 UTC — this Eredivisie fixture kicks off on a day that should be low on headline volatility but high on market intrigue[^fact-1]. The model places an overwhelming probability on a deadlock, creating a contest that reads more like a strategic standoff than an all‑out shootout[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent form numbers point to two sides trading stability rather than streaks. Groningen’s last 10 show a mixed run of results recorded as LLDWW, translating to a 3‑2‑5 W‑D‑L split and an output of 1.10 points per game, with 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded on average[^fact-4]. NEC’s sequence reads DDDWD for a 3‑6‑1 W‑D‑L ledger, delivering 1.50 points per game with 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per match[^fact-5]. On pure Elo terms, Groningen sits marginally behind with a -59 point differential after home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. Taken together, form nudges NEC as the slightly steadier outfit in recent weeks while Elo still signals a narrow edge against the hosts[^fact-5][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Groningen’s attacking buzz has been concentrated through Thom van Bergen, who has produced 2 goals and 1 assist across his last five appearances and carries an average rating of 7.08 in that span[^fact-9]. NEC’s most productive presence is Tjaronn Chery, who has scored 3 goals in his last five outings and holds an average rating of 7.67 over those matches[^fact-10]. Groningen will be without Stije Resink due to injury after 233 minutes in the recent run[^fact-11]. NEC are missing Bryan Linssen through injury, who has accounted for 685 minutes in the recent run[^fact-12]. Those absences are the clearest personnel pivots for each side entering the game[^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value The model highlights three clear market discrepancies versus prices observed across three markets analysed[^fact-13]. First and strongest: the Over 2.5 goals market — the model assigns a 65% chance to Over 2.5 while the market price at Paddy Power sits at 51.00, yielding an edge of 62.6 percentage points in favour of goals[^fact-6]. Second: the Match Winner market — the model gives a draw an 85% probability while the Betfair Exchange prices the draw at 3.95, corresponding to an edge of 60.1 percentage points for the stalemate[^fact-7]. Third: an apparently counterintuitive edge on the Away match winner — the model implies a 64% probability for Away at 1xbet’s price of 2.28, an edge of 19.6 percentage points[^fact-8]. The model’s internal confidence on the primary verdict is high, reflected by a 77 percentage‑point gap to the runner‑up outcome in its distribution[^fact-2]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is emphatic: treat this as a match the model expects to end level while allowing for goals; the draw stands as the dominant single‑outcome view, with Over 2.5 goals flagged as the clearest market inefficiency to the model’s eyes[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 10 May 2026, 14:45 UTC — Eredivisie [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 8% / Draw 85% / Away 7% (source: model; confidence high, 77 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — GRO vs NEC — Elo differential -59 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **GRO recent form** — LLDWW last 10: 3-2-5 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **NEC recent form** — DDDWD last 10: 3-6-1 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.70 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 65% vs market price 51.00 at Paddy Power, edge 62.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Draw in Match Winner — model 85% vs market price 3.95 at Betfair Exchange, edge 60.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Away in Match Winner — model 64% vs market price 2.28 at 1xbet, edge 19.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **GRO in-form player** — Thom van Bergen — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.08. [^fact-10]: **NEC in-form player** — Tjaronn Chery — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.67. [^fact-11]: **GRO key absence** — Stije Resink out (injury), 233 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **NEC key absence** — Bryan Linssen out (injury), 685 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .