# Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle > Eredivisie · Kickoff Sun 10 May 2026, 14:45 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/769) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Fortuna Sittard 3–2 PEC Zwolle ## Model verdict - **Fortuna Sittard win:** 10% - **Draw:** 54% - **PEC Zwolle win:** 37% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model Favors a Draw as Goals Look Likely ## The stage This fixture is an Eredivisie match kicking off on Sun 10 May 2026, 14:45 UTC. [^fact-1] Fortuna Sittard host PEC Zwolle in a game the model ranks as heavily drawn — the model gives a draw the single largest probability. [^fact-2] ## Form & momentum Recent sequences frame this as two sides with defensive fragility. Fortuna Sittard’s last 10 read LLDLL, a 3-1-6 split of wins, draws and losses, and they have averaged 1.00 points per game with 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded in that span. [^fact-4] PEC Zwolle’s last 10 are WLDLW, a 2-5-3 split, with 1.10 points per game and identical defensive leakage of 2.10 goals conceded per match, while averaging 1.10 goals for. [^fact-5] The Elo model, with home advantage applied, still gives Fortuna a modest edge of +64 points over PEC Zwolle. [^fact-3] That combination — a small Elo edge for the hosts but near-equivalent recent outcomes and matching goals conceded numbers — helps explain why the probabilistic model places the draw ahead of either side (Home 10% / Draw 54% / Away 37%). [^fact-2] ## Personnel Fortuna’s most in-form offensive influence in recent matches is Dimitrios Limnios, who has 1 goal and 2 assists in his last five appearances and an average match rating of 6.75. [^fact-9] PEC’s in-form outlet is Thijs Oosting, with 2 goals and 1 assist in his last five and an average rating of 6.93. [^fact-10] Both sides are missing regular contributors: Fortuna will be without Ivo Pinto through suspension after 483 minutes in the recent run, [^fact-11] while PEC Zwolle are missing Shola Shoretire through injury after 408 minutes in the recent run. [^fact-12] Those absences matter because they remove players who have been on the pitch for multiple recent matches; the suspension and injury clips are explicit in the available data and therefore part of the expected lineup calculus. [^fact-11] [^fact-12] ## Where the model sees value Three market comparisons were analysed against the model. [^fact-13] - Over 2.5 goals: the model assigns a 67% chance to over 2.5 goals, matching the market price at Paddy Power of 67.00 and generating a very large edge of 65.1 percentage points according to the model’s calibration. [^fact-6] - Match-winner — Draw: the model gives the draw a 40% chance versus a market price of 3.88 at 22Bet, representing a 14.0 percentage-point edge relative to that market. [^fact-7] - Both Teams to Score — No: the model’s probability for ‘No’ is 47% against a market price of 2.66 at the Betfair Exchange, an edge of 9.6 percentage points. [^fact-8] These three value signals align with the fundamental picture: both teams have conceded heavily in recent games and have modest attacking returns, so a game with multiple goals is plausible while a stalemate remains the single most likely match outcome under the model. [^fact-4] [^fact-5] The largest statistical dislocation is the model’s strong conviction on over 2.5 goals, which is flagged with very high confidence in the analysis. [^fact-6] ## Verdict The model leans toward a deadlocked contest with goals: it ranks the draw as the likeliest result while simultaneously identifying over 2.5 goals as the clearest edge against the market and marking ‘No’ on both teams to score as a secondary value line. [^fact-2] [^fact-6] [^fact-8] The combination of a narrow Elo advantage for the hosts, identical defensive concessions from both sides, recent form lines, and the listed absences frames this as a match where equilibrium and volatility coexist — a draw is the central tendency, but goal-rich sequences are the market inefficiency the numbers highlight. [^fact-3] [^fact-4] [^fact-5] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 10 May 2026, 14:45 UTC — Eredivisie [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 10% / Draw 54% / Away 37% (source: model; confidence high, 17 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — FOR vs PEC — Elo differential +64 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **FOR recent form** — LLDLL last 10: 3-1-6 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 2.10 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **PEC recent form** — WLDLW last 10: 2-5-3 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 2.10 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 67% vs market price 67.00 at Paddy Power, edge 65.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Draw in Match Winner — model 40% vs market price 3.88 at 22Bet, edge 14.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 47% vs market price 2.66 at Betfair Exchange, edge 9.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **FOR in-form player** — Dimitrios Limnios — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.75. [^fact-10]: **PEC in-form player** — Thijs Oosting — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.93. [^fact-11]: **FOR key absence** — Ivo Pinto out (suspension), 483 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **PEC key absence** — Shola Shoretire out (injury), 408 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .