# NAC Breda vs SC Heerenveen > Eredivisie · Kickoff Mon 11 May 2026, 12:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/771) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** NAC Breda 2–0 SC Heerenveen ## Model verdict - **NAC Breda win:** 12% - **Draw:** 60% - **SC Heerenveen win:** 28% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Draw market dominates as Heerenveen carry clear edge ## The stage This Eredivisie fixture kicks off Mon 11 May 2026 at 12:30 UTC and pits NAC Breda against SC Heerenveen in a late-season meeting[^fact-1]. The model places a heavy probability on stalemate: Home 12% / Draw 60% / Away 28%[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent results set a stark contrast. NAC arrive with LLDDL in their last 10, translating to a 2-3-5 W-D-L split, 0.90 points per game, 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Heerenveen’s last-10 line reads WWLWD, a 7-1-2 W-D-L split, 2.20 points per game, 2.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The Elo differential, with home advantage applied, sits at NAC -106 points vs Heerenveen, signalling a meaningful quality gap underpinning the form divergence[^fact-3]. ## Personnel NAC’s most in-form attacking outlet over the last five appearances was Mohamed Nassoh — two goals, zero assists, average rating 7.04[^fact-9] — but he is suspended for this match after contributing 511 minutes in the recent run[^fact-11]. Heerenveen’s hot player is Jacob Trenskow, who has two goals and two assists in his last five appearances with an average rating of 7.08[^fact-10]. Heerenveen will be without Oliver Braude through injury; Braude accumulated 797 minutes in the recent run before his absence[^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s probabilities create clear mispricings versus market quotes across three markets analysed[^fact-13]. First, the model favours Over 2.5 goals at 56% while the market at Paddy Power prices Over 2.5 at 67.00, producing an edge stated by the model of 54.9 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. Second, the model assigns Draw in Match Winner 61% while Betfair Exchange quotes 3.95 for the draw, an edge of 35.7 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-7]. Third, Under 2.5 goals is modelled at 44% versus Betfair Exchange’s market price implying 8.69, with an edge of 32.1 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-8]. All three value observations come from the three markets compared against the model in the dataset[^fact-13]. ## Verdict The model leans strongly toward a draw, with the single largest probability at 60% and the widest confidence gap to the runner-up prediction supporting that lean[^fact-2]. Form and Elo tilt in Heerenveen’s favour, but personnel shifts — notably Nassoh absent for NAC and Braude missing for Heerenveen — compress straightforward conclusions and feed the model’s high draw expectation[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3][^fact-11][^fact-12]. Value contrasts between model and market are pronounced across Over 2.5, Draw, and Under 2.5 markets, reflecting disagreement rather than model uncertainty[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-13]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Mon 11 May 2026, 12:30 UTC — Eredivisie [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 12% / Draw 60% / Away 28% (source: model; confidence high, 32 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — NAC vs HEE — Elo differential -106 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **NAC recent form** — LLDDL last 10: 2-3-5 (W-D-L), 0.90 PPG, 0.70 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **HEE recent form** — WWLWD last 10: 7-1-2 (W-D-L), 2.20 PPG, 2.20 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 56% vs market price 67.00 at Paddy Power, edge 54.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Draw in Match Winner — model 61% vs market price 3.95 at Betfair Exchange, edge 35.7 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 44% vs market price 8.69 at Betfair Exchange, edge 32.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **NAC in-form player** — Mohamed Nassoh — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.04. [^fact-10]: **HEE in-form player** — Jacob Trenskow — 2 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.08. [^fact-11]: **NAC key absence** — Mohamed Nassoh out (suspension), 511 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **HEE key absence** — Oliver Braude out (injury), 797 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .