# Hartberg vs Sturm Graz > Admiral Bundesliga · Kickoff Sun 10 May 2026, 15:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/776) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Hartberg 2–4 Sturm Graz ## Pre-match deep dive ### Tight margins and key absences tilt this late-season scrap ## The stage Kickoff is Sun 10 May 2026 at 15:00 UTC in the Admiral Bundesliga[^fact-1]. The fixture presents a compact, end-of-season snapshot: a home side battling for consistency against a visitor whose sequence is almost entirely draws[^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Form & momentum Hartberg arrive on a patchy run: LLWDD over the last ten fixtures, a 1-5-4 split (W-D-L) that has yielded 0.80 points per game and a goal profile of 0.70 scored and 1.20 conceded per match[^fact-2]. That sequence reads as fragile defence and anemic attack, where even a single mistake is likely to decide results. Sturm Graz, by contrast, have not lost in their last ten but have turned many of those matches into stalemates — DDDDD in the last ten with a 3-7-0 (W-D-L) split, producing 1.60 points per game and identical attacking and defensive output that suggests tight margins: 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per match[^fact-3]. The clear picture is a team that does not lose much but also does not win enough to blow opponents away, while Hartberg are more binary and vulnerable at the back[^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Hartberg’s most noticeable in-form outlet is Jürgen Heil, who has contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in his last five appearances and carries an average rating of 6.96 in that span[^fact-4]. That level of recent contribution marks Heil as the main creative spark for Hartberg in a side averaging fewer than one goal per game[^fact-2][^fact-4]. The absences bite: Dominic Vincze is confirmed out with injury, a player who logged 323 minutes in the recent run and whose missing minutes leave a measurable hole in Hartberg’s rotation[^fact-6]. Sturm Graz rely on Otar Kiteishvili for the attacking edge, a player who has posted 2 goals and 1 assist in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.31 in that period[^fact-5]. That output underpins a side that scrapes results more than it dominates[^fact-3][^fact-5]. Sturm Graz will also be forced to cope without Arjan Malic, who is out injured after contributing 295 minutes in the recent run[^fact-7]. The absence removes options from a side already trending toward draws rather than decisive wins[^fact-3][^fact-7]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s edges arise from two plain facts: Hartberg’s tendency to concede more than they score (0.70 for vs 1.20 against per match) and Sturm Graz’s tendency to produce tight, low-scoring margins while avoiding defeats (1.60 scored / 0.90 conceded, and a run heavy with draws)[^fact-2][^fact-3]. That combination makes the game likeliest to be decided by small margins rather than goal-fests or routs[^fact-2][^fact-3]. With Hartberg missing Dominic Vincze and relying on the recent form of Jürgen Heil for attacking contributions, the model discounts a large swing in home firepower[^fact-6][^fact-4]. Conversely, Sturm Graz’s ability to hold games tight is supported by Otar Kiteishvili’s recent output, but the side also loses Arjan Malic’s 295 minutes of involvement, which trims margin for a decisive attacking breakthrough[^fact-5][^fact-7]. The most consistent value signal is therefore toward low-margin outcomes: a match with limited goals and a high probability of a draw or a single-goal difference, driven by Sturm Graz’s draw-heavy sequence and Hartberg’s modest scoring record[^fact-2][^fact-3]. Market odds are not provided here, but the numerical story from form and personnel points to edges in low-total goals lines and market prices that underweight draws or one-goal wins given the underlying data[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Verdict Expect a tight, low-tempo clash where Hartberg’s defensive fragility and absence of Vincze combine with Sturm Graz’s draw-prone rhythm and loss of Malic to produce a narrow, marginal outcome — a draw or a one-goal difference is the likeliest resolution according to the numbers[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 10 May 2026, 15:00 UTC — Admiral Bundesliga [^fact-2]: **HTB recent form** — LLWDD last 10: 1-5-4 (W-D-L), 0.80 PPG, 0.70 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-3]: **STU recent form** — DDDDD last 10: 3-7-0 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-4]: **HTB in-form player** — Jürgen Heil — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.96. [^fact-5]: **STU in-form player** — Otar Kiteishvili — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.31. [^fact-6]: **HTB key absence** — Dominic Vincze out (injury), 323 minutes in recent run. [^fact-7]: **STU key absence** — Arjan Malic out (injury), 295 minutes in recent run. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .