# Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa > Ekstraklasa · Kickoff Sun 10 May 2026, 15:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/779) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Nieciecza 0–1 Legia Warszawa ## Pre-match deep dive ### Legia's defense on form, Nieciecza's goalscorer in form ## The stage Sun 10 May 2026, 15:30 UTC is the scheduled kickoff for this Ekstraklasa fixture[^fact-1]. The simple competitive framing is whether a Nieciecza side fighting through a tough run can blunt a Legia Warszawa team arriving with clearer recent returns[^fact-2][^fact-3]. The time and competition are the constant facts; everything else centres on form and personnel. ## Form & momentum Nieciecza's last 10 reads LWLLW and their 2-1-7 W-D-L split underline a side scraping results rather than dictating them[^fact-2]. That sequence translates to 0.70 points per game and an attacking/defensive balance of 1.10 goals scored against 2.20 conceded per match[^fact-2]. By contrast, Legia Warszawa's last 10 of WLWDW and a 5-4-1 W-D-L split show clearer momentum and steadier returns[^fact-3]. Legia's recent run equates to 1.90 points per game with 1.20 goals scored and just 1.00 conceded per match[^fact-3]. The broad takeaway: Nieciecza carry negative goal-flow and low points density, while Legia pair better points efficiency with a compact goals-against profile, giving them the hotter formline on paper[^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Nieciecza's most conspicuous attacking spark in recent games is Kamil Zapolnik — three goals, zero assists in his last five outings and an average match rating of 7.30[^fact-4]. Those returns concentrate the team's known scoring threat into a single player across recent fixtures[^fact-4]. Legia's most notable in-form contributor is Rafal Adamski, with two goals and one assist in his last five appearances and an average rating of 6.97[^fact-5]. Legia also enter the game without Pawel Wszolek through injury; Wszolek logged 485 minutes in the recent run and his absence is explicitly flagged in the squad list[^fact-6]. Those personnel notes matter because Nieciecza's goal output is skewed to Zapolnik, while Legia's defensive solidity and offensive balance have been achieved despite Wszolek's unavailability in recent minutes[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6]. ## Where the model sees value The model finds three clear edges relative to a neutral market baseline built only from the supplied form and personnel facts. First, the relative defensive gap: Nieciecza concede 2.20 goals per match versus Legia's 1.00 conceded, which implies the match is likely to contain more chances for the visiting attack than a raw home-defensive projection would assume[^fact-2][^fact-3]. Second, concentrated scoring dependency: Nieciecza's reliance on Kamil Zapolnik for goals points to a binary risk profile — if Zapolnik is active, Nieciecza are likelier to score; if he is contained, Nieciecza's 1.10 goals-per-match baseline is fragile[^fact-4][^fact-2]. Third, Legia's balance of higher points-per-game and lower goals conceded suggests the visitors are priced for control rather than collapse, even with Pawel Wszolek unavailable for 485 minutes of the recent run[^fact-3][^fact-6]. Because explicit market odds are not supplied in the facts, the model's edges are expressed qualitatively: favour scenarios that account for Legia's defensive steadiness and Nieciecza's scoring concentration rather than volatile, high-line outcomes[^fact-3][^fact-4]. That means value may appear where the market underestimates Legia's ability to keep the match low-scoring or overstates Nieciecza's capacity to carry attacking threat beyond Zapolnik's interventions[^fact-3][^fact-4]. ## Verdict Legia Warszawa arrive with the cleaner form profile and superior goals-against metric, while Nieciecza will lean heavily on Kamil Zapolnik to supply the limited scoring they have produced recently; the model tilts toward Legia's steadiness and views Nieciecza as vulnerable if Zapolnik is neutralised[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-2]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 10 May 2026, 15:30 UTC — Ekstraklasa [^fact-2]: **Nieciecza recent form** — LWLLW last 10: 2-1-7 (W-D-L), 0.70 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 2.20 conceded per match. [^fact-3]: **Legia Warszawa recent form** — WLWDW last 10: 5-4-1 (W-D-L), 1.90 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-4]: **Nieciecza in-form player** — Kamil Zapolnik — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.30. [^fact-5]: **Legia Warszawa in-form player** — Rafal Adamski — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.97. [^fact-6]: **Legia Warszawa key absence** — Pawel Wszolek out (injury), 485 minutes in recent run. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .