# Córdoba vs Granada > La Liga 2 · Kickoff Sun 10 May 2026, 16:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/785) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Córdoba 1–0 Granada ## Model verdict - **Córdoba win:** 8% - **Draw:** 86% - **Granada win:** 6% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Draw probability soaks up the narrative ahead of kickoff ## The stage Sunday’s late-afternoon kick-off on 10 May 2026 is a crunch La Liga 2 fixture at Córdoba’s ground, scheduled for 16:30 UTC[^fact-1]. The match sits inside the regular season calendar with both sides carrying form lines and availability issues that matter for end-of-season positioning; the model assigns a dominant probability to the draw, which sets the neutral expectation for the ninety minutes[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum On surface metrics the two teams look roughly matched across recent blocks. Córdoba’s last ten matches read WWWWW with an aggregate record of 5-1-4 (W-D-L) and a points-per-game figure of 1.60, producing 1.60 goals scored and conceding 1.90 per match in that span[^fact-4]. Granada’s last ten read WLLWL and the same 5-1-4 record and 1.60 points per game, but with marginally tighter defensive numbers: 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Elo, however, tells a different story: with home advantage applied Córdoba enjoys an 88-point edge in Elo differential over Granada[^fact-3]. That Elo gap is material and suggests the home side carries a quantifiable quality advantage, despite the identical recent win-draw-loss splits recorded for each across ten matches[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The model’s verdict collapses the contest into a draw-heavy outcome: Home 8% / Draw 86% / Away 6%, with a high-confidence margin to the runner-up scenario (78 percentage points to the next option)[^fact-2]. That extreme centrality on the draw is the dominant statistical signal to reconcile against the Elo tilt for Córdoba[^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Personnel Córdoba’s offensive rhythm has a clear focal point in Cristian Carracedo, who has contributed 1 goal and 3 assists in his last five appearances and carries an average rating of 7.71 over that stretch[^fact-9]. His involvement underpins Córdoba’s 1.60 goals-per-match output across the recent ten-game sample[^fact-4][^fact-9]. Granada’s form player listed by the model is Pablo Sáenz, with 1 goal, 1 assist in his last five and an average rating of 7.22[^fact-10]; his contributions are part of Granada’s identical 1.60 goals-per-match figure across the last ten[^fact-5][^fact-10]. Availability figures matter. Córdoba will be missing Adilson through injury; he has logged 138 minutes in the recent run and is not available for selection[^fact-11]. Granada’s absentee of note is Luca Zidane, also out injured, who has played 540 minutes in the recent run and will be absent[^fact-12]. Those absences remove minutes from each side’s recent continuity and are particularly relevant given the narrow statistical margins in goalscoring and defensive returns across the two clubs[^fact-11][^fact-12][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Where the model sees value Three market comparisons were analysed against the model[^fact-13], and all three point to value that contrasts with the market’s pricing. - Over 2.5 goals: The model estimates a 59% chance for over 2.5, contrasted with a market price implying 67.00% at Paddy Power; the computed edge is 57.4 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. - Draw in Match Winner: The model gives the draw a 40% probability versus market odds of 4.00 on the Betfair Exchange, producing an edge of 15.5 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-7]. Note that the model’s overall distribution still places the draw at 86% in its primary verdict; the 40% here is the model’s market-referenced probability for that specific market comparison[^fact-2][^fact-7]. - Under 2.5 goals: The model assigns 41% probability against a market-implied 3.25 at Betfair Exchange, an edge of 10.3 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-8]. These three edges highlight a tension: the model’s internal balance of over/under probabilities (59% vs 41%) splits the match’s goal expectation but the market prices diverge strongly, producing the largest edge on the Over 2.5 line[^fact-6][^fact-8]. The draw market comparison also shows a measurable model-market mismatch on price vs probability, even as the model’s primary outcome distribution concentrates heavily on the draw overall[^fact-7][^fact-2]. ## Verdict The quantitative centre of gravity is a draw-heavy outcome — the model places the draw overwhelmingly at 86% in its primary verdict while still registering an Elo advantage for the home side of +88 points[^fact-2][^fact-3]. Goal expectations are split inside the model (59% over, 41% under), and market comparisons across three markets reveal the clearest statistical edge on the Over 2.5 goals line, followed by a draw price discrepancy and then the Under 2.5 line[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-13]. The duel between Córdoba’s Elo-backed home edge and the model’s draw concentration is the match’s defining analytical storyline[^fact-3][^fact-2]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 10 May 2026, 16:30 UTC — La Liga 2 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 8% / Draw 86% / Away 6% (source: model; confidence high, 78 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Córdoba vs GRA — Elo differential +88 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Córdoba recent form** — WWWWW last 10: 5-1-4 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **GRA recent form** — WLLWL last 10: 5-1-4 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 59% vs market price 67.00 at Paddy Power, edge 57.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Draw in Match Winner — model 40% vs market price 4.00 at Betfair Exchange, edge 15.5 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 41% vs market price 3.25 at Betfair Exchange, edge 10.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **Córdoba in-form player** — Cristian Carracedo — 1 goals, 3 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.71. [^fact-10]: **GRA in-form player** — Pablo Sáenz — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.22. [^fact-11]: **Córdoba key absence** — Adilson out (injury), 138 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **GRA key absence** — Luca Zidane out (injury), 540 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .