# Mirandés vs SD Eibar > La Liga 2 · Kickoff Sun 10 May 2026, 16:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/786) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Mirandés 0–1 SD Eibar ## Model verdict - **Mirandés win:** 11% - **Draw:** 47% - **SD Eibar win:** 41% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model favours Eibar; draw market looks surprisingly strong ## The stage This fixture is a late-season La Liga 2 tie with kickoff on Sun 10 May 2026, 16:30 UTC. [^fact-1] ## Form & momentum Recent form points sharply towards the visitors. Mirandés have managed LWLDW across their last 10, translating to 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats and averaging 1.20 points per game with 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-4] Eibar arrive on a far superior run: LWWDW in their last 10, recorded as 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, producing 2.30 points per game with 1.60 goals scored and just 0.60 conceded per match. [^fact-5] That gap shows through in rating terms as well: the Elo differential, already adjusted for home advantage, sits at -84 in Mirandés’s favour against Eibar — a sizable edge for the visitors in this metric. [^fact-3] The quantitative model echoes that tilt: it places just an 11% chance on a Mirandés win, 47% on a draw and 41% on an Eibar victory; the model flags low confidence, noting only a 6 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome. [^fact-2] ## Personnel Mirandés’s clearest attacking spark recently has been Unax del Cura, who has 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 appearances and carries an average rating of 6.90. [^fact-9] That contribution becomes more salient given Mirandés will be without Alberto Marí through injury, a notable absence to their forward options. [^fact-11] Eibar’s form pivot is Jon Bautista, who has scored 4 goals in his last 4 appearances and carries an average rating of 8.13 — a streak that helps explain Eibar’s goalscoring rhythm and defensive solidity. [^fact-10] ## Where the model sees value Three market edges stand out when comparing model probabilities to available prices across the markets analysed. [^fact-12] - Away in Match Winner: the model assigns a 52% probability to an Eibar win while the market price at Betano implies a lower chance (odds 2.60); the resulting edge is 13.4 percentage points and reported with high confidence. [^fact-6] - Under 2.5 goals: the model gives this outcome a full 100% probability versus the market price available at Betfair Exchange (1.12), an edge of 10.7 percentage points noted with high confidence. [^fact-7] - Draw in Match Winner: the model puts the draw at 37% while the market at 1xbet (odds 3.48) prices it lower, yielding a 7.9 percentage-point edge with mid confidence. [^fact-8] These edges align with the model’s broader view: Eibar are favoured, but a single-elimination win probability is not dominant enough to preclude a draw — the model actually ranks the draw ahead of the away win in raw probability. [^fact-2] ## Verdict The model leans toward the away side but treats the fixture as finely balanced between draw and Eibar victory: Mirandés are under pressure by form and Elo, Eibar are hotter and more stable defensively, and the model’s top quantitative edges are an away win and an emphatic projection toward a low-scoring game. [^fact-3][^fact-5][^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-7] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 10 May 2026, 16:30 UTC — La Liga 2 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 11% / Draw 47% / Away 41% (source: model; confidence low, 6 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — MIR vs EIB — Elo differential -84 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **MIR recent form** — LWLDW last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **EIB recent form** — LWWDW last 10: 7-2-1 (W-D-L), 2.30 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 0.60 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Away in Match Winner — model 52% vs market price 2.60 at Betano, edge 13.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 100% vs market price 1.12 at Betfair Exchange, edge 10.7 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Draw in Match Winner — model 37% vs market price 3.48 at 1xbet, edge 7.9 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-9]: **MIR in-form player** — Unax del Cura — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.90. [^fact-10]: **EIB in-form player** — Jon Bautista — 4 goals, 0 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 8.13. [^fact-11]: **MIR key absence** — Alberto Marí out (injury). [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .