# FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Union Berlin > Bundesliga · Kickoff Sun 10 May 2026, 17:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/789) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** FSV Mainz 05 1–3 FC Union Berlin ## Model verdict - **FSV Mainz 05 win:** 74% - **Draw:** 20% - **FC Union Berlin win:** 6% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Mainz heavy favourites as Elo gap and model concur ## The stage This is a Bundesliga match kicking off Sun 10 May 2026 at 17:30 UTC; Mainz are at home for the fixture, an edge that the model explicitly applied when calculating the matchup gap[^fact-1][^fact-3]. The game sits late in the season calendar and carries order-of-magnitude implications for both teams’ trajectories; the probabilistic verdict strongly leans one way[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Form lines show a clear contrast. Mainz’s ten-match sequence reads WLDLW, yielding 1.60 points per game with 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded on average[^fact-4]. Union’s ten-match run is DLLLD, worth 0.80 points per game with 0.90 goals for and 2.00 conceded on average[^fact-5]. That difference is amplified in the model’s underlying strength metric: Mainz carry a +277 Elo advantage once home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. The model’s match probabilities reflect all of the above — Home 74%, Draw 20%, Away 6% — a wide margin from the next outcome and labelled with high confidence[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Mainz’s attacking momentum features Phillip Tietz, who has scored three goals in his last five appearances and carries an average rating of 7.16 across that spell[^fact-9]. Union’s immediate attacking profile is weakened by the absence of Andrej Ilic; he has been listed out through injury after contributing one goal and one assist in his last five appearances and logging 671 minutes in his recent run[^fact-10][^fact-12]. Union also miss Sheraldo Becker through suspension; Becker accounted for 738 minutes in his recent run prior to the ban[^fact-11]. Those absences compress Union’s frontline options and blunt a player who had been a meaningful minutes contributor for Mainz’s opponents in this dataset[^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value Three markets were analysed against the model’s probabilities[^fact-13]. The clearest market disconnects are: - Over 2.5 goals: the model assigns 56% probability versus a market price that implies 67.00 at Paddy Power, producing a stated edge for the model on the over[^fact-6][^fact-13]. - Under 2.5 goals: conversely, the model gives under 44% while the Betfair Exchange market implies 462.12, yielding a separate edge signal tied to the under at that exchange price — both over and under show high-confidence mismatches depending on venue market pricing[^fact-7][^fact-13]. - Home match-winner: the model’s home probability of 77% contrasts with a 1.80 market price at 1xbet, a material edge noted by the modelling team[^fact-8][^fact-2][^fact-13]. Those three market comparisons are the ones flagged in the analysis feed and carry the highest reported confidence levels from the model’s output[^fact-13][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. The apparent paradox of simultaneous over- and under-edges reflects divergent market prices across operators rather than disagreement in the model’s stance on the likely scoring range[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-13]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is emphatic: Mainz are the overwhelming favourites at home, reflected in a 74% chance for victory and reinforced by a +277 Elo gap and superior recent form figures, while Union arrive with clear personnel problems and poorer results over their last ten matches[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-11][^fact-12]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 10 May 2026, 17:30 UTC — Bundesliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 74% / Draw 20% / Away 6% (source: model; confidence high, 54 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — M05 vs FCU — Elo differential +277 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **M05 recent form** — WLDLW last 10: 4-4-2 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **FCU recent form** — DLLLD last 10: 2-2-6 (W-D-L), 0.80 PPG, 0.90 goals scored / 2.00 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 56% vs market price 67.00 at Paddy Power, edge 54.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 44% vs market price 462.12 at Betfair Exchange, edge 43.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Home in Match Winner — model 77% vs market price 1.80 at 1xbet, edge 21.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **M05 in-form player** — Phillip Tietz — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.16. [^fact-10]: **FCU in-form player** — Andrej Ilic — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.17. [^fact-11]: **M05 key absence** — Sheraldo Becker out (suspension), 738 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **FCU key absence** — Andrej Ilic out (injury), 671 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .