# Auxerre vs Nice > Ligue 1 · Kickoff Sun 10 May 2026, 19:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/796) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Auxerre 2–1 Nice ## Model verdict - **Auxerre win:** 9% - **Draw:** 61% - **Nice win:** 31% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Stalemate expected: Draw market shows the clearest edge ## The stage This is a Ligue 1 fixture kicking off Sun 10 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC[^fact-1]. The home designation belongs to Auxerre[^fact-3], with Nice the visitors[^fact-3]. The scheduling and competition context are Ligue 1 level details only[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Recent form profiles point to a low-scoring, tight outlook. Auxerre arrive with a WLDDD sequence across their last 10 matches (2 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses) and are averaging 1.10 points per game over that span[^fact-4]. Their offensive and defensive output in that run are identical on paper: 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match[^fact-4]. Nice’s form reads DDDDL across their last 10 (1 win, 5 draws, 4 losses) and they have only 0.80 points per game in that window[^fact-5]. Nice’s recent per-match scoring and concession numbers are 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 goals conceded[^fact-5]. Elo gives Auxerre the edge with a +65 differential after the home advantage has been applied[^fact-3]. Despite that Elo edge, the probabilistic model is strongly tilted toward a deadlock: the model assigns a 61% likelihood to a draw, with the away result the second-most likely outcome at 31% and the home win only 9%[^fact-2]. The model’s confidence in that ordering is described as high and there is a 30 percentage-point gap to the runner-up verdict[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Auxerre’s in-form attacker to watch is Lassine Sinayoko, who has contributed 3 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 appearances and carries an average match rating of 7.39 in that span[^fact-9]. On the Nice side the most-notable recent performer is Antoine Mendy, with 1 goal, 0 assists and an average rating of 6.77 over his last 5 outings[^fact-10]. Availability clouds are simple and material. Auxerre will be without Fredrik Oppegård through injury; he logged 590 minutes in the recent run before his absence[^fact-11]. Nice are missing Youssouf Ndayishimiye through injury as well; he accumulated 72 minutes in the recent run prior to being ruled out[^fact-12]. Those are the two named absences flagged in the match facts[^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value Three market comparisons stand out when the model is laid against available prices; three markets were analysed in total[^fact-13]. The largest single edge is on the Away Match Winner: the model prices Nice at 76% while the market lists the away at 3.08 with an implied probability far lower, giving an edge of 43.6 percentage points (source: 1xbet)[^fact-6]. The model also sees the Over 2.5 goals line as undervalued by the market: model probability 50% versus a Paddy Power price of 13.00, producing an edge of 42.0 percentage points[^fact-7]. Finally, the Draw in Match Winner carries a model probability of 61% against a Betfair Exchange market price of 3.50, an edge of 32.3 percentage points[^fact-8]. All three edges are flagged with high confidence by the model’s output[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. These edges should be read in context: the model's primary single-outcome forecast is the draw at 61%[^fact-2], and that same outcome is the third value pick by numerical edge versus market pricing[^fact-8]. Meanwhile, the model still assigns meaningful probability to an away success (31%), which explains why the away match-winner shows up as the largest market mispricing in the comparison set[^fact-2][^fact-6]. The Over 2.5 line appearing as a value opportunity is notable given both sides’ recent goal rates — Auxerre at 1.30 scored and 1.30 conceded, Nice at 0.90 scored and 1.80 conceded — which together imply volatility around the 2.5 mark[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively toward a draw as the single most likely result (61%) with a distant preference for an away win over a home triumph (31% away, 9% home), and it highlights three market discrepancies — away match-winner, over 2.5 goals, and draw — where quoted prices diverge materially from model probabilities[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-13]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 10 May 2026, 19:00 UTC — Ligue 1 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 9% / Draw 61% / Away 31% (source: model; confidence high, 30 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — AUX vs NCE — Elo differential +65 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **AUX recent form** — WLDDD last 10: 2-5-3 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **NCE recent form** — DDDDL last 10: 1-5-4 (W-D-L), 0.80 PPG, 0.90 goals scored / 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Away in Match Winner — model 76% vs market price 3.08 at 1xbet, edge 43.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 50% vs market price 13.00 at Paddy Power, edge 42.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Draw in Match Winner — model 61% vs market price 3.50 at Betfair Exchange, edge 32.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **AUX in-form player** — Lassine Sinayoko — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.39. [^fact-10]: **NCE in-form player** — Antoine Mendy — 1 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.77. [^fact-11]: **AUX key absence** — Fredrik Oppegård out (injury), 590 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **NCE key absence** — Youssouf Ndayishimiye  out (injury), 72 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .