# Angers SCO vs Strasbourg > Ligue 1 · Kickoff Sun 10 May 2026, 19:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/798) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Angers SCO 1–1 Strasbourg ## Model verdict - **Angers SCO win:** 9% - **Draw:** 58% - **Strasbourg win:** 32% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Draw market looms large as model shuns home side ## The stage This Ligue 1 fixture kicks off Sun 10 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC[^fact-1]. The date and competition set the frame: late-season points matter and margins can be thin, which helps explain why the model puts heavy probability on a shared outcome here[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent trajectories point in opposite directions. Angers arrive on a stretch that reads LLDLD over the last 10 matches, yielding 1-2-7 (W-D-L) and just 0.50 points per game; they are scoring 0.50 goals and conceding 1.90 per match in that run[^fact-4]. Strasbourg have the clearer momentum: LWLWW in their last 10, a 4-4-2 split and 1.60 points per game, averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded during the same span[^fact-5]. The model’s Elo-adjusted view stacks against the hosts: Angers sit 123 Elo points behind Strasbourg once home advantage is accounted for[^fact-3]. That gap is consistent with a market-agnostic model that still prefers a draw as the modal outcome, reflecting both the visitors’ edge and a league context that often produces tight margins[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Angers’ most notable recent performer in the data is Lilian Raolisoa, who has zero goals and two assists in his last five appearances with an average rating of 6.68, but he will be absent through suspension after 759 minutes in the recent run[^fact-9][^fact-11]. That subtraction removes a key source of creative output tracked in the model for Angers. Strasbourg’s in-form individual flagged by the numbers is Samuel Amo-Ameyaw: one goal and one assist across his last four outings with an average rating of 6.95[^fact-10]. Strasbourg also cope without Guela Doué, out injured after 540 minutes in the recent window[^fact-12]. The net effect in the data is a Strasbourg side slightly more resilient and productive than Angers over comparable samples[^fact-5][^fact-3]. ## Where the model sees value The quantitative model identifies three clear pricing discrepancies versus the market across three markets analysed[^fact-13]: - Draw in Match Winner: the model assigns a 58% probability versus a market price implying 27.0% (3.70 at Betfair Exchange), representing a 31.3 percentage-point edge and flagged with high confidence[^fact-6]. - Away in Match Winner: the model gives the away result a 65% probability versus the market price 2.58 at 1xbet, an edge of 25.9 percentage points and high confidence[^fact-7]. - Over 2.5 Goals: the model’s probability is 48% versus a market price of 3.35 at Unibet, an 18.6 percentage-point edge and high confidence[^fact-8]. Note the apparent tension between the first two edges: the standalone probabilities driving the model’s pricing produce both a strong draw expectation and, separately, a large away probability in a different market context[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-7]. The markets compared (three in total) underline that the model is picking up inconsistencies across match-winner and total-goals books rather than relying on a single signal[^fact-13]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively away from a home win and centers on a draw as the single most likely outcome at 58%, with the away outcome also carrying meaningful probability in isolated market comparisons; Angers’ poor recent numbers and a 123-point Elo shortfall underpin that posture, while absences on both sides slightly recalibrate attack and creation figures[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-11][^fact-12]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 10 May 2026, 19:00 UTC — Ligue 1 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 9% / Draw 58% / Away 32% (source: model; confidence high, 26 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — ANG vs STR — Elo differential -123 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **ANG recent form** — LLDLD last 10: 1-2-7 (W-D-L), 0.50 PPG, 0.50 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **STR recent form** — LWLWW last 10: 4-4-2 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Draw in Match Winner — model 58% vs market price 3.70 at Betfair Exchange, edge 31.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Away in Match Winner — model 65% vs market price 2.58 at 1xbet, edge 25.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 48% vs market price 3.35 at Unibet, edge 18.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **ANG in-form player** — Lilian Raolisoa — 0 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.68. [^fact-10]: **STR in-form player** — Samuel Amo-Ameyaw — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 6.95. [^fact-11]: **ANG key absence** — Lilian Raolisoa out (suspension), 759 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **STR key absence** — Guela Doué out (injury), 540 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .