# Cracovia Kraków vs Radomiak Radom > Ekstraklasa · Kickoff Mon 11 May 2026, 17:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/800) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Cracovia Kraków 0–0 Radomiak Radom ## Model verdict - **Cracovia Kraków win:** 9% - **Draw:** 84% - **Radomiak Radom win:** 7% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### A draw looms as data favours a cautious, low-scoring contest ## The stage Monday evening’s kickoff is scheduled for 17:00 UTC in the Ekstraklasa on 11 May 2026[^fact-1]. This fixture sits inside the regular season calendar with standard competitive stakes for both sides; the model that assesses the match places an overwhelming probability on a stalemate[^fact-2]. Markets analysed against that model total three separate lines[^fact-13]. ## Form & momentum Recent form points in opposite directions. Cracovia’s last 10 matches read DDLDL, a 1-4-5 W-D-L split and an anemic 0.70 points per game, with 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Radomiak have steadier momentum: WWWLD in their last 10, a 4-3-3 W-D-L split, earning 1.50 points per game and scoring 1.30 while conceding 1.10 per match[^fact-5]. The Elo picture, with home advantage applied, gives Cracovia an edge of +60 points[^fact-3]. That suggests the home side has a nominal quality advantage on paper, but the form sample and the model’s calibrated probabilities diverge markedly: the model assigns a 9% chance to a home win, 84% to a draw and 7% to an away win[^fact-2]. The gap between the model’s top pick and its nearest runner-up is described as high confidence, with a 75 percentage-point margin to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Cracovia’s in-form spotlight falls on Ajdin Hasic, who has registered 0 goals and 1 assist across his last five appearances and carries an average rating of 6.93 in that window[^fact-9]. The most important absence for Cracovia is Brahim Traoré, suspended and therefore unavailable after 417 minutes in the recent run[^fact-11]. Radomiak’s attacking form is concentrated in Abdoul Tapsoba, who has produced 3 goals, 0 assists and an average rating of 7.15 across his last five appearances[^fact-10]. Radomiak will be missing Jérémy Blasco through suspension, a player who logged 396 minutes in the recent sequence before his absence[^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value The model highlights three clear market edges when comparing model probabilities to available prices across the analysed markets[^fact-13]: - Draw in Match Winner: the model gives a draw probability of 84%, while the market price at 22Bet is 3.55, producing an edge of 55.6 percentage points and marked as high confidence[^fact-6]. - Over 2.5 goals: the model assigns a 54% probability to over 2.5 goals, versus a market price on the Betfair Exchange implying 34.33, yielding an edge of 51.3 percentage points and flagged as high confidence[^fact-7]. - Both Teams to Score — No: the model places a 93% probability on ‘No’ for BTTS, compared to a market price at Unibet of 1.96, giving an edge of 42.2 percentage points and again described as high confidence[^fact-8]. Those three edges together frame two competing narratives from the model: a very strong probability of a goalless or one-sided low-scoring draw (the 93% ‘No’ on BTTS[^fact-8] and the 84% draw probability[^fact-2]), while the same model still finds material value on over 2.5 goals at 54%—an apparent tension explained by market mispricing rather than model inconsistency[^fact-7]. All quoted edges and market comparisons are taken from the three markets the model compared against[^fact-13]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is emphatic: a draw is the dominant outcome at 84%, despite Cracovia carrying a +60 Elo edge on home turf and Radomiak showing better recent form[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-5][^fact-4]. Personnel swings—suspensions to Brahim Traoré and Jérémy Blasco—remove rotational depth from both sides after 417 and 396 minutes respectively[^fact-11][^fact-12], while individual formnotes place more attacking burden on Abdoul Tapsoba than on Ajdin Hasic[^fact-10][^fact-9]. The model also isolates strong market inefficiencies on the draw line, over 2.5 goals and BTTS No across the three analysed markets[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-13]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Mon 11 May 2026, 17:00 UTC — Ekstraklasa [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 9% / Draw 84% / Away 7% (source: model; confidence high, 75 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Cracovia Kraków vs Radomiak Radom — Elo differential +60 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Cracovia Kraków recent form** — DDLDL last 10: 1-4-5 (W-D-L), 0.70 PPG, 0.80 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Radomiak Radom recent form** — WWWLD last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Draw in Match Winner — model 84% vs market price 3.55 at 22Bet, edge 55.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 34.33 at Betfair Exchange, edge 51.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 93% vs market price 1.96 at Unibet, edge 42.2 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **Cracovia Kraków in-form player** — Ajdin Hasic — 0 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.93. [^fact-10]: **Radomiak Radom in-form player** — Abdoul Tapsoba — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.15. [^fact-11]: **Cracovia Kraków key absence** — Brahim Traoré out (suspension), 417 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Radomiak Radom key absence** — Jérémy Blasco out (suspension), 396 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .