# Napoli vs Bologna > Serie A · Kickoff Mon 11 May 2026, 18:45 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/804) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Napoli 2–3 Bologna ## Model verdict - **Napoli win:** 57% - **Draw:** 36% - **Bologna win:** 7% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Napoli heavy favourites as model flags clear edges ## The stage This fixture is a Serie A encounter with kickoff set for Mon 11 May 2026, 18:45 UTC[^fact-1]. It is a home match for Napoli according to the matchup framing used by the model[^fact-3]. ## Form & momentum Napoli arrive with a 10-game sequence recorded as DWLDW and a points-per-game of 2.00 in that span[^fact-4]. Their recent scoring and defensive output reads 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per match over the same run[^fact-4]. Bologna’s 10-game sequence is listed as DLLWW with a 1.60 PPG return[^fact-5]. Bologna’s recent per-match goal numbers sit at 0.80 scored and 0.90 conceded[^fact-5]. The model assigns a clear probabilistic verdict: Home 57% / Draw 36% / Away 7% — a 21 percentage-point gap to the runner-up in confidence[^fact-2]. That aligns with a large Elo edge: Napoli carry a +284-point differential after home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. ## Personnel Napoli’s most-discussed in-form contributor in the model notes is Scott McTominay, who has 2 goals, 0 assists in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.21 over that sample[^fact-9]. Napoli will also be without Mathías Olivera through injury; Olivera accounted for 607 minutes in the recent run before his absence[^fact-11]. Bologna’s in-form highlight is Juan Miranda, who has 0 goals, 2 assists and an average rating of 7.33 in his last five games according to the supplied metrics[^fact-10]. Bologna are missing Martin Vitík due to injury; Vitík accumulated 478 minutes in the recent run prior to his absence[^fact-12]. Those absences change personnel depth across defensive minutes played in the recent run but the supplied facts do not specify replacements or exact positions, so assessment stops at availability and recent minutes[^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value Three markets were compared by the model against the market prices[^fact-13]. The strongest edge flagged is Over 2.5 goals: the model gives Over 2.5 a 48% probability versus a market price implying 67.00% at Paddy Power, yielding an edge of 46.1 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. The model also registers value on the home Match Winner: model probability 79% versus the Betfair Exchange price of 1.59, an edge of 16.5 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-7]. Finally, the model shows value on Draw in Match Winner with a 36% model probability versus a 4.40 price at 1xbet, an edge of 13.6 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-8]. Those three comparisons represent the markets analysed by the model for this fixture[^fact-13]. The split between a high home-win probability and a nearly 50/50 view on Over 2.5 underlines a conflict: the model sees Napoli as likely to win by virtue of both form and an Elo cushion, yet it still assigns substantial chance to a multi-goal game outcome[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-6]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively toward the home side: Home 57% is the single highest outcome probability, backed by a +284 Elo advantage and superior recent PPG and goal differential metrics for Napoli[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4]. The largest market-model dislocation appears in the Over 2.5 market, which the model prices significantly lower than the market currently does, while the clearest market-aligned edge sits on the home match-winner probability[^fact-6][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Mon 11 May 2026, 18:45 UTC — Serie A [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 57% / Draw 36% / Away 7% (source: model; confidence high, 21 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — NAP vs BOL — Elo differential +284 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **NAP recent form** — DWLDW last 10: 6-2-2 (W-D-L), 2.00 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 0.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **BOL recent form** — DLLWW last 10: 5-1-4 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 0.80 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 48% vs market price 67.00 at Paddy Power, edge 46.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Home in Match Winner — model 79% vs market price 1.59 at Betfair Exchange, edge 16.5 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Draw in Match Winner — model 36% vs market price 4.40 at 1xbet, edge 13.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **NAP in-form player** — Scott McTominay — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.21. [^fact-10]: **BOL in-form player** — Juan Miranda — 0 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.33. [^fact-11]: **NAP key absence** — Mathías Olivera out (injury), 607 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **BOL key absence** — Martin Vitík out (injury), 478 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .