# Tottenham Hotspur vs Leeds United > Premier League · Kickoff Mon 11 May 2026, 19:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/805) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Tottenham Hotspur 1–1 Leeds United ## Model verdict - **Tottenham Hotspur win:** 8% - **Draw:** 85% - **Leeds United win:** 7% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Tight draw probability dominates as form points to Leeds momentum ## The stage A late-season Premier League fixture kicks off on Mon 11 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC[^fact-1]. The model assigns a dominant probability to the draw, making the stalemate the headline outcome before a ball is kicked[^fact-2]. No venue-specific edge is asserted in the supplied facts; the kickoff time and competition frame the immediate context[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Recent-trend numbers favour Leeds on both results and defensive solidity. Tottenham have managed WWDLL across their last 10 matches (2 wins, 2 draws, 6 losses), averaging 0.80 points per game and scoring 1.00 goals while conceding 1.90 per match in that span[^fact-4]. By contrast, Leeds carry WLDWW over their last 10 (4 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses), with 1.50 points per game, 1.30 goals scored and a markedly tighter 0.70 goals conceded per match[^fact-5]. The Elo comparison, with home advantage applied, gives Tottenham a negative edge of 21 points versus Leeds, signalling a marginal pre-match weaker standing for the home side on the rating scale used here[^fact-3]. That combination — Tottenham's poorer recent defensive record and the Elo differential — helps explain why the probabilistic model heavily favours a drawn outcome[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Tottenham's most notable in-form contributor in the supplied facts is Richarlison: 1 goal and 1 assist across his last 4 appearances, with an average match rating of 6.71 in those outings[^fact-9]. However, Tottenham face the enforced absence of Dominic Solanke through injury; Solanke logged 682 minutes in the recent run before that absence[^fact-11]. The loss of those minutes represents a material disruption to Tottenham's attacking minutes if the facts are read at face value[^fact-11]. Leeds' attacking form centres on Noah Okafor, who has 4 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 appearances and an average rating of 7.36 across those games[^fact-10]. Leeds will also be without Ilia Gruev through injury; Gruev contributed 209 minutes in the recent run before his absence[^fact-12]. Both absences are noted in the supplied facts and figure into balance of personnel available[^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value The model's top market edges are explicitly quantified against three markets analysed in the facts[^fact-13]. First, the model places an 85% probability on the match finishing as a draw, while the market price at bet365 sits at 4.10 — an implied market probability materially lower than the model's view, producing an edge of 61.0 percentage points (high confidence) in favour of the draw[^fact-6]. Second, the model assigns a 52% probability to the match finishing over 2.5 goals; the market price referenced at Paddy Power is 67.00, giving an edge of 51.0 percentage points (high confidence) to the model's over view[^fact-7]. Third, the model also quantifies an under-2.5 view at 48%, versus a market price of 2.60 at Unibet; that produces a smaller edge of 9.1 percentage points (high confidence) for the under option[^fact-8]. Those numbers present an unusual dichotomy: the model sees the draw as overwhelmingly likely while holding a narrow tilt between over and under 2.5 goals, with the over line slightly favoured by the model probabilities but the margin between over and under only 4 percentage points (52% vs 48% implied by the model probabilities in the supplied facts)[^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-6]. The market comparisons used to compute these edges are three markets in total, as stated in the facts[^fact-13]. ## Verdict The probabilistic model is emphatic on outcome: a draw is the central expectation at 85% probability[^fact-2][^fact-6]. Recent form and defensive numbers point toward Leeds arriving in better momentum, while Tottenham's recent goals conceded rate and a loss of key minutes from Dominic Solanke complicate the home side’s attacking profile[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-11]. The model also highlights value contrasts across goal markets, with the largest modeled edge favouring the draw and a much closer split on the over/under 2.5 goals metrics[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Mon 11 May 2026, 19:00 UTC — Premier League [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 8% / Draw 85% / Away 7% (source: model; confidence high, 77 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — TOT vs LEE — Elo differential -21 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **TOT recent form** — WWDLL last 10: 2-2-6 (W-D-L), 0.80 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **LEE recent form** — WLDWW last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 0.70 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Draw in Match Winner — model 85% vs market price 4.10 at bet365, edge 61.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 52% vs market price 67.00 at Paddy Power, edge 51.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 48% vs market price 2.60 at Unibet, edge 9.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **TOT in-form player** — Richarlison — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 6.71. [^fact-10]: **LEE in-form player** — Noah Okafor — 4 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.36. [^fact-11]: **TOT key absence** — Dominic Solanke out (injury), 682 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **LEE key absence** — Ilia Gruev out (injury), 209 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .