# Rayo Vallecano vs Girona > La Liga · Kickoff Mon 11 May 2026, 19:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/806) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Girona ## Model verdict - **Rayo Vallecano win:** 44% - **Draw:** 49% - **Girona win:** 7% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Draw probability looms as Rayo’s Elo edge meets form inconsistency ## The stage A late-evening La Liga fixture kicks off Mon 11 May 2026, 19:00 UTC, with Rayo Vallecano hosting Girona in a match that carries end-of-season texture as standings and momentum are at stake[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Recent sequences tell a mixed story. Rayo arrive with a WDWLW sequence across their last 10 matches, recorded as 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses, producing 1.60 points per game and an output of 1.30 goals scored while conceding 1.00 per match[^fact-4]. Girona’s rhythm is shakier: LLLDW across their last 10, quantified as 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses, yielding 0.90 points per game with 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Despite the divergent recent formlines, the model’s match-level probability is heavily tilted toward a draw at 49%, with home 44% and away just 7% — a distribution flagged as low confidence given a 5 percentage-point gap to the runner-up[^fact-2]. That probabilistic profile sits against a substantial Elo advantage applied to the home side: Rayo carry an Elo edge of +180 points after home advantage is factored in[^fact-3]. The picture is therefore one of club-level quality (Elo) suggesting Rayo superiority while short-term results (form and the model’s own uncertainty) push the market toward stalemate[^fact-3][^fact-2][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Rayo’s attacking rhythm has a clear focal point: Sergio Camello has netted 3 goals and no assists in his last five appearances, posting an average rating of 6.98 across that run[^fact-9]. The loss of Isi Palazón to suspension is the clearest availability hit for Rayo, with Palazón having accumulated 519 minutes in the recent run before his absence[^fact-11]. That suspension removes an ingredient from the side that has been contributing significant minutes to the recent pattern of goals and points[^fact-11][^fact-9]. Girona’s most notable in-form figure is Viktor Tsygankov, who has 1 goal and 0 assists across his last five outings with an average rating of 7.02 over that spell[^fact-10]. Girona are also missing Vladyslav Vanat through injury; Vanat had logged 388 minutes in the recent run before being ruled out[^fact-12]. Those absences narrow Girona’s options in attack and blunt available minutes that might have shifted the dynamic in the final third[^fact-12][^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value The model-versus-market comparisons identify three clear edges across three analysed markets[^fact-13]: - Over 2.5 goals: the model assigns a 44% probability while the market price at Paddy Power implies 67.00, creating an edge of 42.7 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. - Under 2.5 goals: the model gives 54% probability against Unibet’s market price of 3.15, an edge of 22.6 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-7]. - Match-winner — Draw: the model’s internal price for a draw sits at 50% while the market at bet365 is 3.50, yielding a 21.3 percentage-point edge (high confidence)[^fact-8]. These three edges read together underline a market bifurcation: the model simultaneously sees meaningful probability mass for both over and under 2.5 goals across different outlets, while separately flagging the draw as the single most probable match outcome in its match-winner assessment[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. The analysis compared three markets in total against the model’s output[^fact-13]. ## Verdict The clearest signal is modal: the model leans to a draw at 50% internally and lists draw as the largest single market-value opportunity while assigning the official match probabilities as Home 44% / Draw 49% / Away 7% with low confidence in that ordering[^fact-8][^fact-2]. The contest therefore reads as a low-scoring, tight affair where Rayo’s Elo superiority contrasts with form-driven uncertainty, and the model’s most consistent edges are in markets tied to draws and the 2.5-goal line[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Mon 11 May 2026, 19:00 UTC — La Liga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 44% / Draw 49% / Away 7% (source: model; confidence low, 5 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — RAY vs GIR — Elo differential +180 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **RAY recent form** — WDWLW last 10: 4-4-2 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **GIR recent form** — LLLDW last 10: 2-3-5 (W-D-L), 0.90 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 44% vs market price 67.00 at Paddy Power, edge 42.7 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 3.15 at Unibet, edge 22.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Draw in Match Winner — model 50% vs market price 3.50 at bet365, edge 21.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **RAY in-form player** — Sergio Camello — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.98. [^fact-10]: **GIR in-form player** — Viktor Tsygankov — 1 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.02. [^fact-11]: **RAY key absence** — Isi Palazón out (suspension), 519 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **GIR key absence** — Vladyslav Vanat out (injury), 388 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .