# Modena vs Juve Stabia > Serie B · Kickoff Tue 12 May 2026, 16:45 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/808) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Modena 0–1 Juve Stabia ## Model verdict - **Modena win:** 45% - **Draw:** 32% - **Juve Stabia win:** 23% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home edge on paper but market favours a sterile draw outcome ## The stage This Serie B fixture kicks off Tue 12 May 2026, 16:45 UTC as part of the closing run of the campaign[^fact-1]. The game pits Modena[^fact-3] against Juve Stabia[^fact-3] in a match where the model assigns the clearest outcome probabilities: Home 45% / Draw 32% / Away 23%[^fact-2]. The model rates that verdict with a mid confidence level and notes a 13 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent results underline how close these teams are on the surface. Modena’s last 10 match sequence reads LWLLD, a 3-3-4 split W-D-L, worth 1.20 points per game and averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Juve Stabia arrive with DLDDW, a 2-5-3 W-D-L line, accumulating 1.10 points per game and averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per match[^fact-5]. On the rating sheet that feeds the model, Modena hold an Elo edge of +108 points after applying home advantage[^fact-3]. That Elo cushion helps explain why the model leans toward the home side despite results that show both teams producing and leaking goals at nearly identical rates[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Key individuals and absences could tilt marginal matchups. Modena’s in-form contributor Yanis Massolin has produced 1 goal and 1 assist across his last four appearances and carries an average rating of 7.03 in that window[^fact-8]. Juve Stabia’s most notable recent form comes from Alessandro Gabrielloni, who has 1 goal and 1 assist in his last five appearances with an average rating of 6.77[^fact-9]. Availability is a clearer story. Modena will be without Leandro Chichizola due to injury; he has accumulated 370 minutes in the recent run and his absence is confirmed in the facts supplied[^fact-10]. Juve Stabia will be missing Salim Diakité through injury; he logged 589 minutes in the recent run prior to missing this match[^fact-11]. Those absences remove two players who contributed meaningful minutes to recent rotations, and they are the heaviest personnel losses listed for each side[^fact-10][^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value The model was scanned against three market lines in total[^fact-12], and two stand out for a quant desk. First, Over 2.5 goals is priced in the market at 67.00 at Paddy Power while the model assigns a 46% chance — the implied edge here is 44.1 percentage points and the model flags this as high confidence[^fact-6]. Second, Both Teams to Score (Yes) is a closer call: the model gives it a 53% probability versus a market price of 2.02 on the Betfair Exchange, yielding a model-market gap of 3.3 points but with low confidence assigned to that edge[^fact-7]. The model’s underlying numbers on goals per match — both teams scoring around 1.20 goals per game in their recent runs — feed into these diagonals[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The markets examined include exactly three lines compared against the model, of which the two highlighted here produced the largest discrepancies[^fact-12]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is toward the home side but not overwhelmingly so: Home 45% / Draw 32% / Away 23%[^fact-2], supported by an Elo advantage of +108 with home applied[^fact-3]. Expect a tight contest with a real chance of goals given both teams’ recent scoring and conceding profiles and the model’s identified edges on Over 2.5 goals and Both Teams to Score[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Tue 12 May 2026, 16:45 UTC — Serie B [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 45% / Draw 32% / Away 23% (source: model; confidence mid, 13 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — MOD vs JUV — Elo differential +108 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **MOD recent form** — LWLLD last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **JUV recent form** — DLDDW last 10: 2-5-3 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 46% vs market price 67.00 at Paddy Power, edge 44.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Yes in Both Teams to Score — model 53% vs market price 2.02 at Betfair Exchange, edge 3.3 pp (low confidence). [^fact-8]: **MOD in-form player** — Yanis Massolin — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.03. [^fact-9]: **JUV in-form player** — Alessandro Gabrielloni — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.77. [^fact-10]: **MOD key absence** — Leandro Chichizola out (injury), 370 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **JUV key absence** — Salim Diakité out (injury), 589 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .