# Celta de Vigo vs Levante > La Liga · Kickoff Tue 12 May 2026, 17:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/809) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Celta de Vigo 2–3 Levante ## Model verdict - **Celta de Vigo win:** 88% - **Draw:** 7% - **Levante win:** 6% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home heavy favourite backed by a stark model edge ## The stage This midweek La Liga fixture kicks off on Tue 12 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC. [^fact-1] The match pits a clear home side against an away team in a game the model ranks as overwhelmingly likely to finish decisively rather than level — Home 88%, Draw 7%, Away 6%. [^fact-2] Three market lines were analysed against the model for edges. [^fact-13] ## Form & momentum Celta arrive with a mixed picture over their last 10 matches: form string WWLLL and a record of 4 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses, yielding 1.30 points per game and an attacking/defensive output of 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-4] Levante’s recent run is stronger on balance: WLDWW with a 5-3-2 split across 10, producing 1.80 points per game and averages of 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded. [^fact-5] Despite Levante’s superior short-term metrics, the underlying matchup tilts heavily to the hosts: the Elo differential, with home advantage applied, gives Celta a +165-point edge. [^fact-3] That Elo gap feeds directly into the model’s skew: a single outcome dominates the probability distribution, with the home side carrying an 81 percentage-point confidence gap to the runner-up probability in the model’s assessment. [^fact-2] ## Personnel Celta’s in-form attacking reference is Borja Iglesias, who has 3 goals and no assists in his last five appearances and an average match rating of 6.94 over that run. [^fact-9] Levante’s most notable recent contributor is Carlos Espí, with 2 goals, no assists in his last five and an average rating of 6.88. [^fact-10] Both sides will be affected by absences that strip minutes from matchday options: Celta will be without Óscar Mingueza through suspension after 648 minutes in the recent run. [^fact-11] Levante are missing Iván Romero through injury, who logged 491 minutes in the recent spell. [^fact-12] These personnel notes matter for how both coaches must adjust templates: Celta lose a player with heavy minutes in the run, while Levante are without one of their contributors who amassed meaningful time. [^fact-11] [^fact-12] ## Where the model sees value The model flags three clear pricing dislocations compared with market lines that were analysed. [^fact-13] Top of the list is Over 2.5 goals: the model assigns this outcome a 100% probability versus a market price implying 67.00% at Paddy Power, creating an edge of 98.4 percentage points. [^fact-6] Second, the Match Winner market is tilted toward the home side as a value pick: the model’s 88% Home probability contrasts with a 1xbet price implying 1.83, producing a model-market edge of 32.9 percentage points. [^fact-7] Third, Both Teams to Score is signalled as a mid-confidence value: the model gives ‘Yes’ 62% probability versus a Betfair Exchange price implying 1.80, an edge of 6.9 percentage points. [^fact-8] All three plays are derived from the same model that produces the dominant Home probability; the markets tested number three in total. [^fact-2] [^fact-13] ## Verdict The model’s read is unequivocal: the home side is the overwhelming favourite, supported by a +165 Elo edge and a Home probability of 88% with a strong confidence margin. [^fact-3] [^fact-2] That makes the clearest market story the home match-winner premium and the model’s conviction that goals will follow — Over 2.5 and Home stand out as the primary value discrepancies versus market prices, with Both Teams to Score a secondary signal. [^fact-6] [^fact-7] [^fact-8] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Tue 12 May 2026, 17:00 UTC — La Liga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 88% / Draw 7% / Away 6% (source: model; confidence high, 81 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — CEL vs LVT — Elo differential +165 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **CEL recent form** — WWLLL last 10: 4-1-5 (W-D-L), 1.30 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **LVT recent form** — WLDWW last 10: 5-3-2 (W-D-L), 1.80 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 100% vs market price 67.00 at Paddy Power, edge 98.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Home in Match Winner — model 88% vs market price 1.83 at 1xbet, edge 32.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Yes in Both Teams to Score — model 62% vs market price 1.80 at Betfair Exchange, edge 6.9 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-9]: **CEL in-form player** — Borja Iglesias — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.94. [^fact-10]: **LVT in-form player** — Carlos Espí — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.88. [^fact-11]: **CEL key absence** — Óscar Mingueza out (suspension), 648 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **LVT key absence** — Iván Romero out (injury), 491 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .