# Servette vs Lausanne Sport > Super League · Kickoff Tue 12 May 2026, 18:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/811) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Servette 2–0 Lausanne Sport ## Model verdict - **Servette win:** 46% - **Draw:** 47% - **Lausanne Sport win:** 7% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Big Elo advantage meets model-backed draw probability surprise ## The stage A midweek Super League fixture kicks off on Tue 12 May 2026 at 18:30 UTC, a slot that can tilt margins in a compact schedule and concentrate attention on form and fitness[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Servette enter with a materially stronger underlying record across the recent sample: their last ten read DWWDW, recorded as 5-4-1 (W-D-L) and worth 1.90 points per game, with 2.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Lausanne Sport’s last ten is softer on output and more fragile defensively, LLWLW registered as 4-0-6 (W-D-L) producing 1.20 points per game, 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The Elo model assigns Servette a pronounced edge once home advantage is applied: an Elo differential of +219 points in their favour[^fact-3]. That combination — superior recent per-match returns and a strong Elo gap — frames Servette as the underlying stronger side on raw form and ratings[^fact-4][^fact-3][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Servette’s creative pulse has been notably carried by Junior Kadile, who has produced 1 goal and 6 assists across his last five appearances while averaging a 7.63 match rating[^fact-9]. Lausanne’s most persuasive recent contributor is Jamie Roche, with 2 goals in his last five and an average rating of 7.09[^fact-10]. Both teams will cope without important attacking minutes: Servette are missing Florian Ayé through injury, a player who logged 546 minutes in the recent run before his absence[^fact-11]; Lausanne are without Omar Janneh, who provided 699 minutes in the recent sequence prior to injury[^fact-12]. Those absences remove two consistent minute-accumulators from their respective squads, a factor to account for when weighing finishing and rotation[^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value The model and market are materially misaligned across three markets examined[^fact-13]. First, the model prices Over 2.5 goals at 46% probability while the market at Paddy Power is offering an implied price of 67.00 for Over 2.5, creating an edge referenced as 44.1 percentage points in the model’s favour[^fact-6]. Second, the model actually prefers Under 2.5 goals at 54% against a market price on Betfair Exchange of 5.70, producing a model-market edge of 36.8 percentage points for Under 2.5[^fact-7]. Third, the model places a 47% probability on a draw in the match-winner market while Betfair Exchange shows a 4.10 price on the draw, leaving a model edge of 22.7 percentage points for the stalemate[^fact-8]. Those three contrasts are the explicit value opportunities the model flags: a split view on total goals depending on which market is taken, and a relatively large model conviction for a deadlock compared with the exchange price[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-13]. The market disagreement is especially notable because the markets analysed number three in total, and each displays high-confidence edges from the model[^fact-13][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ## Verdict The model’s topline probabilities tilt heavily toward a draw at 47%, with the home outcome at 46% and away down at 7% — a tight two-way contest in projection and a clear tilt against an away upset[^fact-2]. Coupled with Servette’s +219 Elo advantage and stronger recent per-match outputs, the matchup reads as a fixture where Servette are structurally superior but the model’s highest single-market probability remains the draw, a tension that explains the divergence between ratings and probability-based market edges[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-2]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Tue 12 May 2026, 18:30 UTC — Super League [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 46% / Draw 47% / Away 7% (source: model; confidence low, 1 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Servette vs LAU — Elo differential +219 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Servette recent form** — DWWDW last 10: 5-4-1 (W-D-L), 1.90 PPG, 2.30 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **LAU recent form** — LLWLW last 10: 4-0-6 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 2.00 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 46% vs market price 67.00 at Paddy Power, edge 44.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 5.70 at Betfair Exchange, edge 36.8 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Draw in Match Winner — model 47% vs market price 4.10 at Betfair Exchange, edge 22.7 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **Servette in-form player** — Junior Kadile — 1 goals, 6 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.63. [^fact-10]: **LAU in-form player** — Jamie Roche — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.09. [^fact-11]: **Servette key absence** — Florian Ayé out (injury), 546 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **LAU key absence** — Omar Janneh out (injury), 699 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .