# Kilmarnock vs Dundee > Premiership · Kickoff Tue 12 May 2026, 18:45 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/814) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Kilmarnock 3–1 Dundee ## Model verdict - **Kilmarnock win:** 12% - **Draw:** 7% - **Dundee win:** 81% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model overwhelmingly backs away goals and an open game ## The stage Tuesday’s kick-off at 18:45 UTC is a Premiership fixture with meaningful end-of-season texture: Kilmarnock host Dundee under the floodlights on Tue 12 May 2026, 18:45 UTC[^fact-1]. The slot gives both clubs one last televised opportunity to shift momentum before the campaign closes. The model assigns a heavy probability to an away outcome rather than a home hold or draw, underlining the mismatch flagged below[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent form on paper is superficially similar but tilted toward the visitors. Kilmarnock’s last 10 read WWLDL, a 4-2-4 record that translates to 1.40 points per game and 1.50 goals scored and conceded per match[^fact-4]. Dundee’s last 10 are WWLDL as well but with a 4-3-3 split, giving 1.50 points per game and 1.70 goals scored against 1.60 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The predictive model affords Dundee the clear edge: an 81% chance to win the match versus 12% for the home side and 7% for a draw, with a high-confidence gap to the runner-up[^fact-2]. That aligns with an Elo differential after home advantage of +114 in favour of the visitors, a substantial rating swing that frames Dundee as the stronger side on paper[^fact-3]. ## Personnel Kilmarnock’s most prominent short-term attacking outlet has been Findlay Curtis — three goals, zero assists across his last five appearances, with an average rating of 7.04[^fact-9]. That scoring rhythm is an important base for Kilmarnock, given their goals-for rate of 1.50 per match in the last 10[^fact-4]. Dundee’s leading form player over the same recent window is Simon Murray, who has two goals and no assists in five games, averaging 6.76 in match ratings[^fact-10]. Squad disruptions matter: Kilmarnock will be without Matty Kennedy through injury, a named absence that removes a known option from their selection picture[^fact-11]. The facts do not supply starting XIs or managers; analysis therefore focuses on the available output and the confirmed absence. ## Where the model sees value Markets across three lines were compared to the model[^fact-12], exposing wide edges where market pricing appears inconsistent with the model’s probabilities. First, the model strongly favors Over 2.5 goals: model probability 99% against a market price implying 67.00 at Paddy Power, producing a 97.7 percentage-point edge and high confidence in this projection[^fact-6]. Second, the model rates the Away Match Winner as very likely at 81% while the Betfair Exchange market prices the away at 4.00, an edge of 55.9 percentage points and again flagged with high confidence[^fact-7]. Third, the model projects the match to finish without both teams scoring — that is, a ‘No’ on Both Teams to Score — at 96% while Betfair offers 2.20, an edge of 51.0 percentage points and high confidence[^fact-8]. Those three value signals are notable because they pull in different directions from a trading perspective. Over 2.5 indicates an expectation of multiple goals in the fixture[^fact-6]. The model’s strong ‘No’ on Both Teams to Score, however, implies the goals are likely to be concentrated at one end — a high-scoring victory rather than a high-scoring, split affair[^fact-8]. The heavy Away Match Winner probability reinforces that narrative: the model expects Dundee to provide the bulk of the scoring impact rather than an even exchange[^fact-7]. All three comparisons came from the set of markets analysed by the model[^fact-12]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is unequivocal: a sizable away advantage on form and Elo, with an 81% chance of an away win and a 114-point Elo edge after home adjustment[^fact-2][^fact-3]. The probabilistic overlay expects an open game with goals skewed toward the visitors (Over 2.5 at 99%) while still projecting that both teams will not score (No on BTTS at 96%), a combination that points to a decisive Dundee performance rather than a tight draw or a narrow home success[^fact-6][^fact-8][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Tue 12 May 2026, 18:45 UTC — Premiership [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 12% / Draw 7% / Away 81% (source: model; confidence high, 69 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — KIL vs DUD — Elo differential +114 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **KIL recent form** — WWLDL last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **DUD recent form** — WWLDL last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.70 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 99% vs market price 67.00 at Paddy Power, edge 97.7 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Away in Match Winner — model 81% vs market price 4.00 at Betfair Exchange, edge 55.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 96% vs market price 2.20 at Betfair Exchange, edge 51.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **KIL in-form player** — Findlay Curtis — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.04. [^fact-10]: **DUD in-form player** — Simon Murray — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.76. [^fact-11]: **KIL key absence** — Matty Kennedy  out (injury). [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .