# Dundee United vs Livingston > Premiership · Kickoff Tue 12 May 2026, 18:45 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/815) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Dundee United 0–0 Livingston ## Model verdict - **Dundee United win:** 74% - **Draw:** 13% - **Livingston win:** 13% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Dundee United primed to dominate as model favours home win ## The stage This Premiership fixture kicks off on Tue 12 May 2026 at 18:45 UTC and hands Dundee United a clear home assignment in the closing run of the campaign[^fact-1]. The model places a heavy probability on the hosts, signalling an expected one-sided outcome before a ball is kicked[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent sequences point to a marginally improved trajectory for Dundee United: their last 10 results read LLWWL and are summarised as 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses with 1.40 points per game, 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Livingston have registered LDWLD over their last 10, recorded as 1 win, 6 draws and 3 losses with 0.90 points per game, 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Beyond raw formlines, the model’s underlying strength metric applies a 226-point Elo advantage to the home side once venue is accounted for, a sizeable on-paper edge that amplifies the home-team narrative[^fact-3]. The model’s match probability distribution — Home 74% / Draw 13% / Away 13% — further quantifies that gap and underpins expectations for a Dundee United result[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Two players have emerged as the clear attacking fulcrums in recent weeks. Will Ferry has delivered 3 goals and 2 assists across his last five appearances and carries an average rating of 7.80[^fact-9]. For Livingston, Lewis Smith has contributed 3 goals and 1 assist in his last five with an average rating of 7.45[^fact-10]. The balance of influence is not neutralised by squad stability alone: Dundee United will be without L. Stephenson through injury; he has accumulated 533 minutes in the recent run and his absence is the matchday’s heaviest listed unavailability[^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value The quantitative desk compared three markets against the model and surfaced clear pricing inefficiencies[^fact-12]. First, the O/U 2.5 goals market shows split signals between bookmakers and the model: the market prices Over at 67.00 with Paddy Power while the model assigns Over a 46% probability, producing the largest edge in the dataset (edge 44.1 percentage points) and high confidence in its assessment[^fact-6]. Conversely, the same O/U 2.5 market priced Under at 4.70 with Unibet contrasts with the model’s Under probability of 54%, yielding an edge of 33.1 percentage points and likewise high confidence[^fact-7]. Those two positions are not contradictory inside the model’s framework — they reflect disagreement between extreme market prices and the model’s more moderate probability distribution. Lastly, the Match Winner market shows a home bias in the model: Home 74% against a Paddy Power price implying 1.75, an edge quantified at 17.2 percentage points and flagged with high confidence[^fact-8]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively toward a Dundee United victory, driven by a 226-point Elo advantage at home and a 74% match-winning probability for the hosts[^fact-3][^fact-2]. Recent form and in-form individuals — notably Will Ferry and Lewis Smith — frame the likely attacking outlets, while the absence of L. Stephenson is the most significant named unavailability[^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-11]. Market contrast is stark in goal-line pricing and the match-winner market, with the model flagging large edges against bookmaker quotes across three analysed markets[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-12]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Tue 12 May 2026, 18:45 UTC — Premiership [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 74% / Draw 13% / Away 13% (source: model; confidence high, 61 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — DUD vs LIV — Elo differential +226 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **DUD recent form** — LLWWL last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **LIV recent form** — LDWLD last 10: 1-6-3 (W-D-L), 0.90 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 46% vs market price 67.00 at Paddy Power, edge 44.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 4.70 at Unibet, edge 33.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Home in Match Winner — model 74% vs market price 1.75 at Paddy Power, edge 17.2 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **DUD in-form player** — Will Ferry — 3 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.80. [^fact-10]: **LIV in-form player** — Lewis Smith — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.45. [^fact-11]: **DUD key absence** — L. Stephenson out (injury), 533 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .