# Osasuna vs Atlético de Madrid > La Liga · Kickoff Tue 12 May 2026, 19:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/817) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Osasuna 1–2 Atlético de Madrid ## Model verdict - **Osasuna win:** 8% - **Draw:** 85% - **Atlético de Madrid win:** 7% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model Predicts Draw Heavy Outcome; Low-Scoring Tilt Expected ## The stage This fixture arrives on Tue 12 May 2026 at 19:30 UTC as part of La Liga, a late-season match with implications embedded in the table race the model tracks[^fact-1]. The available facts do not specify the physical venue; the kickoff time and competition are the confirmed coordinates for this examination[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Recent form points to two teams struggling for consistent momentum. Osasuna have posted LLWLD across their last 10 matches — a 2-3-5 split (W-D-L) — producing 0.90 points per game, scoring 1.20 goals and conceding 1.60 per match in that sequence[^fact-4]. Atlético Madrid present a mixed profile with LWWLL in their last 10, recorded as 4-0-6 (W-D-L), delivering 1.20 points per game, 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded on average[^fact-5]. The Elo comparison applies a home advantage and leaves Osasuna with a -50-point deficit versus Atlético, a modest but measurable quality edge for the visitors in raw ratings terms[^fact-3]. Despite that Elo edge, the model lands emphatically on a draw as the likeliest outcome — assigning 85% probability to a stalemate, with only 8% for a home win and 7% for the away side[^fact-2]. The model’s confidence has a wide margin over the runner-up scenario, indicating a pronounced statistical lean[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Osasuna’s most notable in-form figure is Ante Budimir, who has 2 goals and 0 assists in his last five appearances and averages a 6.45 rating in that span[^fact-9]. Atlético’s attacking highlight in recent matches is Alexander Sørloth, with 2 goals and 0 assists in his last three appearances and an average rating of 6.81[^fact-10]. A clear structural absence for Atlético is Nico González, who is out injured after contributing 321 minutes in the recent run; his unavailability is the highest-impact absence specified in the available facts[^fact-11]. The provided data does not enumerate other absentees or starting XI changes, so focus stays on the single confirmed missing piece for Atlético and the short-form scoring outputs of the named forwards[^fact-11][^fact-9][^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s probabilities diverge sharply from market prices across the three markets analysed, creating clear statistical edges[^fact-12]. The principal discrepancy sits in Match Winner: the model gives a draw an 85% probability while the market price of 3.63 at 1xbet implies a far lower market-led chance; that gap produces the largest single-market edge called out by the model[^fact-6][^fact-2]. On total goals, the model is almost evenly split but slightly favours Under 2.5 with 54% probability versus Over 2.5 at 46% — both edges are flagged because market prices are materially different from the model’s view. The model rates Over 2.5 at 46% against a market price of 67.00 at Paddy Power, a sizeable divergence in expectation terms[^fact-7]. Conversely, Under 2.5 is modelled at 54% while the market quotes 3.55 at DanskeSpil, creating a separate, smaller edge[^fact-8]. All three value calls are drawn from direct comparisons between model probabilities and the bookmakers’ odds in the markets analysed[^fact-12]. Confidence in these edges is described as high by the model for each selection it highlights[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ## Verdict The statistical picture is simple: a draw dominates the model’s posterior (85%), supported by modest attacking outputs on both sides and an Elo edge that sits with Atlético but does not overturn the expected deadlock[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. Personnel notes narrow to Budimir and Sørloth as the most productive recent scorers and to Nico González’s absence as the principal confirmed unavailability[^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-11]. Markets show pronounced dislocation versus the model across three markets analysed, most radically on the draw price, and the model’s lean is firmly toward a draw and a generally low-scoring contest[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-12]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Tue 12 May 2026, 19:30 UTC — La Liga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 8% / Draw 85% / Away 7% (source: model; confidence high, 77 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — OSA vs ATM — Elo differential -50 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **OSA recent form** — LLWLD last 10: 2-3-5 (W-D-L), 0.90 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **ATM recent form** — LWWLL last 10: 4-0-6 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Draw in Match Winner — model 85% vs market price 3.63 at 1xbet, edge 57.7 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 46% vs market price 67.00 at Paddy Power, edge 44.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 3.55 at DanskeSpil, edge 26.2 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **OSA in-form player** — Ante Budimir — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.45. [^fact-10]: **ATM in-form player** — Alexander Sørloth — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 3 appearances, avg rating 6.81. [^fact-11]: **ATM key absence** — Nico González out (injury), 321 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .