# Arka Gdynia vs Górnik Zabrze > Ekstraklasa · Kickoff Wed 13 May 2026, 16:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/818) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Arka Gdynia win:** 9% - **Draw:** 61% - **Górnik Zabrze win:** 30% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | h2h | Draw | 3.50 | Betfair Exchange | 61% | +32.1 pp | | totals | Over | 3.80 | Unibet | 46% | +19.3 pp | | totals | Under | 2.02 | Bet365 (no latency) | 54% | +5.0 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Draw-heavy model backs stalemate despite narrow away edge ## The stage Wednesday’s kickoff lands at 16:00 UTC in an Ekstraklasa fixture on 13 May 2026[^fact-1]. The calendar context is limited to that timestamp and competition; all projections below use the model outputs provided[^fact-1][^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent sequences paint two different trajectories. Arka Gdynia arrive with a DLLDW run over their last 10 matches, recorded as 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses, producing 1.00 point per game and scoring on average 1.30 goals while conceding 1.90 per match[^fact-4]. Górnik Zabrze’s last 10 read LWWDW — 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses — and that sequence is worth 1.50 points per game with 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded on average[^fact-5]. The Elo sheet slightly favours the visitors after home advantage is applied, with an Elo differential of minus 20 in Arka’s favour meaning Górnik hold the edge on that scale[^fact-3]. The probabilistic model, however, assigns the clearest single outcome to a draw at 61%, with an away result at 30% and a home win only 9%[^fact-2]. That 31 percentage‑point gap to the runner‑up underlines the model’s confidence in a stalemate[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Arka’s most referenced in‑form contributor is Vladislavs Gutkovskis, who has 2 goals and 1 assist in his last five appearances and an average match rating of 7.02[^fact-9]. Górnik’s short‑term hotspot is Rafal Janicki, with 2 goals in his last five and an average rating of 6.98[^fact-10]. The most consequential absence documented is Dawid Gojny, suspended and missing after contributing 900 minutes in the recent run[^fact-11]. That suspension is the single named unavailability provided and is therefore the largest confirmed personnel change to factor into defensive planning[^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value Three market comparisons were analysed against the model to identify edges[^fact-12]. The clearest market disparity is the match‑winner market where the model prices a draw at 61% while the Betfair Exchange offers a decimal price of 3.50, producing an implied edge of 32.1 percentage points and labelled with high confidence by the model[^fact-6][^fact-2]. On totals, the model is split but still spots value: for Over 2.5 goals the model probability is 46% versus a Unibet price of 3.80, an edge of 19.3 percentage points and high confidence attached[^fact-7]. The flip side is Under 2.5, where the model gives 54% against Bet365’s price of 2.02, an edge of 5.0 percentage points rated with mid confidence[^fact-8]. Those two totals positions reflect the model’s imperfect certainty over match flow while still extracting measurable differences versus market prices[^fact-7][^fact-8]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is emphatically toward a draw, assigning 61% to that outcome and leaving little room for a home surprise at 9%[^fact-2]. Elo gives a slight technical advantage to the visitors by 20 points, but recent form metrics and the model’s probabilities combine to make a stalemate the central expectation for the fixture[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. Market comparisons across three markets flag the biggest value in the draw at Betfair and secondary edges across both Over and Under 2.5 goals, each with stated confidence levels from the model[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-12]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Wed 13 May 2026, 16:00 UTC — Ekstraklasa [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 9% / Draw 61% / Away 30% (source: model; confidence high, 31 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Arka Gdynia vs Górnik Zabrze — Elo differential -20 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Arka Gdynia recent form** — DLLDW last 10: 2-4-4 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Górnik Zabrze recent form** — LWWDW last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Draw in Match Winner — model 61% vs market price 3.50 at Betfair Exchange, edge 32.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 46% vs market price 3.80 at Unibet, edge 19.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.02 at Bet365 (no latency), edge 5.0 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-9]: **Arka Gdynia in-form player** — Vladislavs Gutkovskis — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.02. [^fact-10]: **Górnik Zabrze in-form player** — Rafal Janicki — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.98. [^fact-11]: **Arka Gdynia key absence** — Dawid Gojny out (suspension), 900 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .