# Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia Białystok > Ekstraklasa · Kickoff Wed 13 May 2026, 18:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/822) **Status:** Scheduled ## Pre-match deep dive ### Raków’s form edge vs Jagiellonia’s attacking spark under spotlight ## The stage Kickoff for this Ekstraklasa fixture is scheduled for Wed 13 May 2026, 18:30 UTC, which gives both sides a single fixture focus late in the domestic calendar[^fact-1]. The venue is the immediate battleground for form and fitness rather than a neutral marquee tie; the scheduled time concentrates attention on final domestic positioning rather than prolonged cup runs[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Raków arrive with a clear upward tilt in recent results: WWWDD across a ten-match window, a record expressed as 5-3-2 (W-D-L), producing 1.80 points per game and averaging 1.80 goals scored while conceding 1.20 per match[^fact-2]. Those numbers describe a team that is scraping wins more often than not and registering a positive goal differential across the sample[^fact-2]. Jagiellonia’s ten-match snapshot reads WLWDD, or 3-3-4 (W-D-L), and a lower output overall at 1.20 points per game; their attacking and defensive returns sit at 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per match[^fact-3]. Relative to Raków, Jagiellonia’s profile is more volatile and marginally porous at the back in this sample[^fact-3]. On balance of these supplied metrics, Raków carry the hotter recent form profile, both in points and goal balance across the same ten-match horizon[^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Raków’s immediate attacking threat is highlighted by Jonatan Braut Brunes, who has three goals in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.23 across that run[^fact-4]. That output places him as a decisive finishing option within the recent sample and a clear focal point for Raków’s forward play[^fact-4]. Jagiellonia counterpoints with Afimico Pululu, who has also been influential: three goals and two assists in his last five appearances, with an average rating of 7.28[^fact-5]. Pululu’s combined goals and assists in that short window signal a direct contribution to chances and goals at both ends of the final pass and the finish[^fact-5]. Availability notes matter: Raków will be without Fran Tudor through injury after 494 minutes in the recent run, a non-trivial absence in terms of minutes missed within the sample[^fact-6]. Jagiellonia’s reported absence is Leon Flach, out injured after 81 minutes in the recent run, a smaller minutes footprint but still a named unavailability to account for[^fact-7]. Both absences remove specific personnel options and will shape selection and matchups; Tudor’s absence is the heavier minutes-based loss in the supplied facts[^fact-6][^fact-7]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s edges come from the contrast in recent point production and goal balance, and from where the attacking returns are concentrated. Raków’s 1.80 points per game and a positive goals-scored versus conceded split in the ten-match sample underpin a model tilt toward their ability to control outcomes in the match period[^fact-2]. Jagiellonia’s 1.20 points per game and the marginally higher goals conceded relative to goals scored suggest greater fragility across the same window[^fact-3]. On personnel, both sides carry obvious threats: Brunes’ three-goal burst across five appearances projects finishing risk for opponents[^fact-4], while Pululu’s three goals and two assists across five appearances indicate game-breaking involvement in both scoring and chance creation[^fact-5]. The absence of Tudor (494 minutes missed in the recent run) is the larger personnel swing in the facts and could shift defensive matchups; Flach’s absence (81 minutes in the recent run) is noted but smaller by minutes in the supplied sample[^fact-6][^fact-7]. Market odds for this fixture are not supplied in the structured facts, so the model frames value qualitatively rather than against explicit price points provided by bookmakers[^fact-1]. The principal quantitative edges are: Raków’s superior points-per-game and goal differential in the ten-match sample[^fact-2], and Jagiellonia’s reliance on a compact group of contributors like Pululu for goal involvement[^fact-3][^fact-5]. Where an external market underestimates Raków’s recent point production or overestimates the smoothing effect of Jagiellonia’s attacking returns, that would be where the model registers value — though explicit odds are not available in the supplied facts to state a numerical overlay[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-5]. ## Verdict The dossier tilts toward Raków as the side carrying clearer recent momentum and a healthier goal balance across the ten-match sample; Jagiellonia’s pockets of attacking quality complicate the picture, but the net numbers favour Raków given the supplied facts[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Wed 13 May 2026, 18:30 UTC — Ekstraklasa [^fact-2]: **Raków Częstochowa recent form** — WWWDD last 10: 5-3-2 (W-D-L), 1.80 PPG, 1.80 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-3]: **Jagiellonia Białystok recent form** — WLWDD last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-4]: **Raków Częstochowa in-form player** — Jonatan Braut Brunes — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.23. [^fact-5]: **Jagiellonia Białystok in-form player** — Afimico Pululu — 3 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.28. [^fact-6]: **Raków Częstochowa key absence** — Fran Tudor out (injury), 494 minutes in recent run. [^fact-7]: **Jagiellonia Białystok key absence** — Leon Flach out (injury), 81 minutes in recent run. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .