# Getafe vs Mallorca > La Liga · Kickoff Wed 13 May 2026, 19:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/830) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Getafe win:** 60% - **Draw:** 33% - **Mallorca win:** 7% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | h2h | Home | 2.33 | 1xbet | 60% | +17.1 pp | | totals | Over | 3.30 | Unibet | 46% | +15.3 pp | | btts | Yes | 2.24 | 22Bet | 53% | +8.1 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Getafe favoured as model backs home edge despite tight recent runs ## The stage This midweek La Liga tie kicks off on Wed 13 May 2026 at 19:30 UTC, a fixture that lands late in the domestic calendar and carries standard league implications for both sides[^fact-1]. The model gives a clear home lean, assigning Getafe the strongest single outcome probability in the trio[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Getafe arrive with a ten-match line reading DLLWL and a points-per-game of 1.60, reflecting a run that mixes defensive solidity with intervention moments up the pitch[^fact-4]. Their measured attacking output — 0.80 goals scored per match — is matched by a low concession rate of 0.70 per match, a profile that underpins a conservative, hard-to-break team[^fact-4]. Mallorca’s recent ten matches show DWLDW and a PPG of 1.50, a sequence that contains more attacking intent: 1.40 goals scored per match and 1.10 conceded[^fact-5]. The model’s Elo application still favours the hosts, however, with an Elo differential of +134 points in Getafe’s favour once home advantage is accounted for[^fact-3]. That Elo edge helps explain the model’s probabilities, which put the home win well ahead of the alternatives[^fact-2]. Taken together, the numbers paint a low-scoring but home-tilted view: Getafe’s defensive numbers are superior, Mallorca carry slightly more attacking threat, but the model’s aggregate view is decisively in favour of the hosts[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Personnel On the in-form front for Getafe, goalkeeper David Soria has posted an average rating of 7.09 across his last five appearances, with no goals or assists in that span — a defensive form signal rather than an attacking one[^fact-9]. For Mallorca, Samú Costa has been more productive in the last five matches, registering 2 goals and 2 assists and an average rating of 7.39, an influence on the final third that Mallorca will hope to exploit[^fact-10]. Availability shifts that matter: Getafe will be missing Mauro Arambarri through injury; Arambarri accounted for 779 minutes in the recent run and his absence removes a sizeable midfield workload[^fact-11]. Mallorca’s Manu Morlanes is also out injured, having contributed 551 minutes in the recent block, which alters Mallorca’s midfield balance and possibly their capacity to control transitions[^fact-12]. Both absences reduce the predictability of starting shapes and could slightly tilt the game away from midfield control toward set moments and defensive organisation[^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value Three markets were compared against the model for edges[^fact-13]. The clearest single-market value is the home match-winner: the model assigns Getafe a 60% chance while the market price sits at 2.33 on 1xbet, a raw edge of 17.1 percentage points in favour of the home side[^fact-6]. The numbers stack with the Elo advantage and Getafe’s defensive economy[^fact-3][^fact-4]. The model also finds an edge on goals: Over 2.5 has a 46% model probability versus a market price of 3.30 at Unibet, producing an edge of 15.3 percentage points[^fact-7]. Despite Getafe’s low goals-for rate, Mallorca’s higher scoring average and the midfield absences could create conditions for a match that clears the 2.5 line[^fact-5][^fact-11][^fact-12]. A third, more marginal edge the model highlights is Both Teams to Score (Yes) at a market price of 2.24 on 22Bet where the model gives it 53%, an edge of 8.1 percentage points[^fact-8]. That pick threads the needle between Getafe’s defensive profile and Mallorca’s recent attacking returns[^fact-4][^fact-5]. Each value call is flagged by the model with high confidence, and all three were part of the market comparison set used in the analysis[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-13]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is clear: favour the home side — Getafe holds a 60% match-win probability against a 33% draw and 7% away win — driven by a +134 Elo edge, superior defensive numbers, and identified market edges in the match-winner and goal markets[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Wed 13 May 2026, 19:30 UTC — La Liga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 60% / Draw 33% / Away 7% (source: model; confidence high, 27 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — GET vs MLL — Elo differential +134 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **GET recent form** — DLLWL last 10: 5-1-4 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 0.80 goals scored / 0.70 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **MLL recent form** — DWLDW last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 60% vs market price 2.33 at 1xbet, edge 17.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 46% vs market price 3.30 at Unibet, edge 15.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Yes in Both Teams to Score — model 53% vs market price 2.24 at 22Bet, edge 8.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **GET in-form player** — David Soria — 0 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.09. [^fact-10]: **MLL in-form player** — Samú Costa — 2 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.39. [^fact-11]: **GET key absence** — Mauro Arambarri out (injury), 779 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **MLL key absence** — Manu Morlanes out (injury), 551 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . 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