# Bari 1908 vs Südtirol > Serie B · Kickoff Fri 15 May 2026, 18:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/837) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Bari 1908 0–0 Südtirol ## Model verdict - **Bari 1908 win:** 82% - **Draw:** 9% - **Südtirol win:** 9% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model overwhelmingly favours the home side; low-scoring affair likely ## The stage This fixture is scheduled for kickoff on Fri 15 May 2026 at 18:00 UTC in Serie B[^fact-1]. The context is straightforward: a regular-season meeting where match result and goal lines will matter for both teams’ immediate outcomes within the campaign timetable[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum The model makes a definitive call: Home 82% / Draw 9% / Away 9%, with a high-confidence gap to the runner-up of 73 percentage points[^fact-2]. That heavy probability sits alongside an Elo advantage of +121 in favour of the home side once standard home advantage has been applied[^fact-3]. Recent outcomes underline that gulf. The home side’s ten-match summary reads WWLLL, recorded as 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses in the last ten with 1.20 points per game, 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per match[^fact-4]. The visitors arrive on a colder run: DLLLD (0 wins, 4 draws, 6 losses in the last ten), 0.40 points per game, 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Those numbers make the home team noticeably better on both expected result and offensive output, while both teams share an identical defensive concession rate in recent matches[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Key attacking form for the home side centres on Kevin Piscopo, who has 2 goals and 0 assists in his last five appearances with an average rating of 6.97[^fact-8]. For the visitors, Nicola Pietrangeli is the most notable recent contributor with 1 goal and 0 assists across his last five outings and an average rating of 6.69[^fact-9]. Availability shapes selection decisions: the home side will be without Giuseppe Sibilli due to suspension[^fact-10]. The visitors are missing Filipe Bordon through injury; his recent appearances topped out at 74 minutes in that run before the absence[^fact-11]. Those are the headline absences on either side[^fact-10][^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value The model flags two clear edges versus market lines. First, the Under 2.5 goals market carries a 90% model probability versus a market price of 1.61 at 1xbet, representing a 27.5 percentage-point edge and high confidence from the model[^fact-6]. Second, the model puts an 81% chance on "No" for Both Teams to Score against a market price of 1.84 at Betfair Exchange, an edge of 26.2 percentage points and also labelled with high confidence[^fact-7]. These market-level insights are consistent with the match-level signals: the model’s heavy home probability and the low goal-scoring rates recorded by both teams in recent matches align with both the Under 2.5 and BTTS-No recommendations[^fact-2][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6][^fact-7]. The analysis compared three markets against the model to arrive at these edges[^fact-12]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is clear — a strong home favourite with low-scoring expectations, underpinned by an Elo edge of +121 and the home probability of 82%[^fact-3][^fact-2]. Recent form and the specific player availability profiles reinforce a scenario where chances could be scarce and the away side struggles to find the net[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-10][^fact-11]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Fri 15 May 2026, 18:00 UTC — Serie B [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 82% / Draw 9% / Away 9% (source: model; confidence high, 73 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — BAR vs SUD — Elo differential +121 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **BAR recent form** — WWLLL last 10: 4-0-6 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 2.00 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **SUD recent form** — DLLLD last 10: 0-4-6 (W-D-L), 0.40 PPG, 0.70 goals scored / 2.00 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 90% vs market price 1.61 at 1xbet, edge 27.5 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 81% vs market price 1.84 at Betfair Exchange, edge 26.2 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **BAR in-form player** — Kevin Piscopo — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.97. [^fact-9]: **SUD in-form player** — Nicola Pietrangeli — 1 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.69. [^fact-10]: **BAR key absence** — Giuseppe Sibilli out (suspension). [^fact-11]: **SUD key absence** — Filipe Bordon out (injury), 74 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .