# Castellón vs Cádiz > La Liga 2 · Kickoff Fri 15 May 2026, 18:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/840) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Castellón 1–1 Cádiz ## Model verdict - **Castellón win:** 48% - **Draw:** 9% - **Cádiz win:** 43% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Favourites on paper, but goals look likelier than a calm draw ## The stage Friday night in La Liga 2 arrives with a fixture that doubles as a momentum test and a form check: kickoff is Fri 15 May 2026, 18:30 UTC. [^fact-1] ## Form & momentum Castellón arrive with a markedly stronger recent record: their last 10 matches read DLWWD, a 4-4-2 split (W-D-L), delivering 1.60 points per game and averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-4] Cádiz, by contrast, carry deep negative form — LDLLL over their last 10, a 1-1-8 return worth 0.40 points per game and averaging just 0.70 goals while conceding 2.00 per match. [^fact-5] The Elo picture magnifies that gulf: with home advantage applied, Castellón hold a +342 Elo differential over Cádiz. [^fact-3] Those numbers push the narrative that Castellón are the operational favourite on the pitch, but the predictive model’s match probability split is narrower: Home 48% / Draw 9% / Away 43%, and the model flags low confidence with only a 5 percentage-point gap to the runner-up. [^fact-2] ## Personnel Castellón have a clear attacking focal point in Álex Calatrava, who has contributed 5 goals and 1 assist across his last five appearances while posting an average match rating of 8.08. [^fact-8] That form is a concrete offensive engine for the hosts given their season scoring rate. Cádiz’s most notable recent performer in the data is Suso, who has 0 goals and 2 assists in his last five matches with an average rating of 7.16 — useful creativity but less of a finishing threat than the Castellón focal point. [^fact-9] The hosts’ matchup is further skewed by Cádiz missing Jon Ander Garrido through injury, a named absence listed in the model inputs. [^fact-10] ## Where the model sees value Market comparisons were run across three markets against the model. [^fact-11] Two clear edges stand out with high confidence. - Both Teams to Score — the model prices a "Yes" probability of 69% versus a market price of 1.83 on Betfair Exchange, an edge of 14.6 percentage points (high confidence). [^fact-6] - Over 2.5 Goals — the model gives a 79% probability to Over 2.5, while the market price at Betfair Exchange sits at 1.47, representing an 11.1 percentage-point edge (high confidence). [^fact-7] Those two signals are coherent with the underlying stats: Castellón score at a rate near 1.8 per game and concede 1.6, while Cádiz’s defensive record (2.0 conceded per game) raises the likelihood of a match with multiple goals despite Cádiz’s poor scoring form (0.7 goals per game). [^fact-4] [^fact-5] The model’s own probability spread still keeps the contest competitive on the match-winner market, but both-goals and over-goals markets register the cleaner statistical divergences. ## Verdict The model leans to the home side but with acknowledged uncertainty — Home 48%, Draw 9%, Away 43%, and low confidence in the ranking gap. [^fact-2] The strongest, most robust model-to-market mismatches are in goal markets: Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals register the largest, high-confidence edges versus the market prices examined. [^fact-6] [^fact-7] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Fri 15 May 2026, 18:30 UTC — La Liga 2 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 48% / Draw 9% / Away 43% (source: model; confidence low, 5 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Castellón vs CAD — Elo differential +342 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Castellón recent form** — DLWWD last 10: 4-4-2 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 1.80 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **CAD recent form** — LDLLL last 10: 1-1-8 (W-D-L), 0.40 PPG, 0.70 goals scored / 2.00 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Yes in Both Teams to Score — model 69% vs market price 1.83 at Betfair Exchange, edge 14.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 79% vs market price 1.47 at Betfair Exchange, edge 11.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Castellón in-form player** — Álex Calatrava — 5 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 8.08. [^fact-9]: **CAD in-form player** — Suso — 0 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.16. [^fact-10]: **CAD key absence** — Jon Ander Garrido out (injury). [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .