# Juve Stabia vs Monza > Serie B · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 18:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/843) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Juve Stabia 2–2 Monza ## Model verdict - **Juve Stabia win:** 12% - **Draw:** 23% - **Monza win:** 66% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model strongly favours the visitors despite a small Elo gap ## The stage This fixture kicks off Sat 16 May 2026 at 18:00 UTC in Serie B[^fact-1]. The scheduling and competition context put pressure on both sides to deliver results late in the campaign, with home advantage already built into comparative metrics[^fact-3]. ## Form & momentum Monza arrive in the better recent rhythm: their last 10 matches read DLWWW (4-4-2 W-D-L) with 1.60 points per game, 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Juve Stabia's sequence is WDLDD (3-5-2) with 1.40 points per game, 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per match[^fact-4]. The model gives Monza a clear probabilistic edge — Home 12% / Draw 23% / Away 66% — a 43 percentage-point gap to the runner-up and high confidence in that ordering[^fact-2]. Elo, however, suggests a much tighter comparative picture: Juve Stabia carry an Elo deficit of only 8 points after home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. That small Elo gap implies the contest is not expected to be one-sided on raw strength metrics, but recent form and the model's estimation push the momentum toward the visitors[^fact-2][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Juve Stabia's most notable in-form outlet is Alessandro Gabrielloni, who has 1 goal and 1 assist in his last five appearances and an average match rating of 6.74[^fact-9]. The side also face a key absence in Salim Diakité, listed out through injury and responsible for 589 minutes in the recent run — a significant chunk of game time to replace[^fact-11]. Monza's game has been buoyed by Patrick Cutrone, who has 1 goal and 2 assists in his last four appearances and an average rating of 7.10[^fact-10]. Monza will be missing Pedro Obiang through suspension; Obiang covered 490 minutes in the recent run and his absence removes familiar minutes from the visitors' midfield rotation[^fact-12]. These personnel notes frame a game in which both sides lose regular minutes from a squad contributor, but Monza's attacking rhythm looks marginally sharper on the surface[^fact-5][^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value The model uncovers multiple edges versus market pricing across three markets analysed[^fact-13]. First, the clearest discrepancy is the Away in Match Winner: the model assigns Monza a 62% probability while the market price listed at bet365 implies a probability of 40% (decimal 2.50), creating an edge of 21.7 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. Second, the Draw remains underpriced relative to the model's 45% estimate versus Bet365's 3.50 (edge 16.3 pp; high confidence)[^fact-7]. Third, Both Teams to Score (Yes) shows a smaller but material edge: the model at 51% versus Betfair’s 2.20, an edge of 5.3 pp with mid-level confidence[^fact-8]. All three selections come from the set of markets compared by the model in the analysis (three markets analysed)[^fact-13]. These divergences reflect the model's heavier weighting of Monza's recent attacking output and the consistency metrics embedded in the probability engine[^fact-5][^fact-2]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively to the away side: Monza is the clear probabilistic favourite (66%) while Juve Stabia's chance of victory sits at 12% and the draw at 23%[^fact-2]. The small Elo differential of -8 points for Juve Stabia after home advantage tempers the narrative of a rout, but recent form, in-form attacking returns and the model's calibrated probabilities all point toward Monza as the side most likely to deliver on the day[^fact-3][^fact-5][^fact-10]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 18:00 UTC — Serie B [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 12% / Draw 23% / Away 66% (source: model; confidence high, 43 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — JUV vs MON — Elo differential -8 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **JUV recent form** — WDLDD last 10: 3-5-2 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **MON recent form** — DLWWW last 10: 4-4-2 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 1.70 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Away in Match Winner — model 62% vs market price 2.50 at bet365, edge 21.7 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Draw in Match Winner — model 45% vs market price 3.50 at Bet365 (no latency), edge 16.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Yes in Both Teams to Score — model 51% vs market price 2.20 at Betfair, edge 5.3 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-9]: **JUV in-form player** — Alessandro Gabrielloni — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.74. [^fact-10]: **MON in-form player** — Patrick Cutrone — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.10. [^fact-11]: **JUV key absence** — Salim Diakité out (injury), 589 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **MON key absence** — Pedro Obiang out (suspension), 490 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .