# Hibernian vs Motherwell > Premiership · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 11:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/844) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Hibernian 0–1 Motherwell ## Model verdict - **Hibernian win:** 39% - **Draw:** 15% - **Motherwell win:** 45% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Elo edge for home, model surprisingly favours the visitors ## The stage Kickoff is Saturday 16 May 2026 at 11:30 UTC in a Premiership fixture[^fact-1]. This is a one-off league meeting with the model producing split probabilities rather than a blowout, so match context sits squarely on fine margins[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Hibernian arrive with a recent sequence shown as WWLLL in the last 10, recorded as a 4-3-3 (W-D-L) distribution and averaging 1.50 points per game, 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Motherwell’s last-10 read LDLWL, recorded as 2-2-6 (W-D-L) with 0.80 points per game, 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per match[^fact-5]. On raw Elo with home advantage applied, Hibernian carry an edge of +149 points[^fact-3]. The model’s probabilistic view still gives the away side a narrow lead at 45% vs home 39% and draw 15%, though the model flags low confidence with a 6 percentage-point gap to the runner-up[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Hibernian’s most notable in-form contributor over recent games is Jordan Obita, who has 1 goal and 2 assists in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.05[^fact-9]. Motherwell’s prominent form figure is Emmanuel Longelo, with 3 goals and an average rating of 7.04 in his last five appearances[^fact-10]. A significant availability note for Hibernian: Josh Mulligan is out injured after featuring 21 minutes in the recent run[^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value Three market comparisons were analysed against the model[^fact-12]. The strongest single-market edge is Home in Match Winner: the model implies 49% vs a market price of 2.75 at Paddy Power, an edge of 13.1 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. The model also flags Under 2.5 goals as good value: model 62% vs market price 2.04 at Betfair Exchange, edge 12.9 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-7]. Finally, the model surfaces No for Both Teams to Score at 54% against a market price of 2.25 at Unibet, an edge of 9.8 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-8]. ## Verdict The quantitative picture is mixed: Elo and home advantage favour Hibernian by +149 points while the model’s probabilities slightly favour the visitors at 45% amid low confidence (6 pp gap to runner-up), creating a tension between historical strength and short-term probability output[^fact-3][^fact-2]. Against that backdrop the model highlights clear market value on home match-winner and low-scoring outcomes, with three high-confidence edges identified across the markets analysed[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-12]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 11:30 UTC — Premiership [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 39% / Draw 15% / Away 45% (source: model; confidence low, 6 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — HIB vs MOT — Elo differential +149 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **HIB recent form** — WWLLL last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **MOT recent form** — LDLWL last 10: 2-2-6 (W-D-L), 0.80 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 49% vs market price 2.75 at Paddy Power, edge 13.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 62% vs market price 2.04 at Betfair Exchange, edge 12.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 54% vs market price 2.25 at Unibet, edge 9.8 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **HIB in-form player** — Jordan Obita — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.05. [^fact-10]: **MOT in-form player** — Emmanuel Longelo — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.04. [^fact-11]: **HIB key absence** — Josh Mulligan out (injury), 21 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .