# Celtic vs Hearts > Premiership · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 11:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/846) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Celtic 3–1 Hearts ## Model verdict - **Celtic win:** 24% - **Draw:** 68% - **Hearts win:** 7% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Celtic favourites on paper, model leans to the draw ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Sat 16 May 2026, 11:30 UTC in the Premiership[^fact-1]. The fixture pits Celtic[^fact-4] against Hearts[^fact-5] in a game where league context and exact table permutations are intentionally left aside; the focus here is on the data the model and markets supply. ## Form & momentum Recent runs make this a closely contested looking affair on form. Celtic arrive on a five-game winning run within a 10-match sequence described as WWWWW and an overall 8-1-1 record in those ten matches[^fact-4]. That sample produces 2.50 points per game, with an attack averaging 2.10 goals scored and a defence conceding 1.20 per match[^fact-4]. Hearts are hardly ragged: their last five show WDWWW within a 10-match string of 7-2-1, delivering 2.30 points per game with 1.60 goals scored and a stingier 0.70 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The raw Elo gap with home advantage applied is a substantial edge of +186 points in Celtic’s favour[^fact-3], but the model’s match-level probabilities pull a counterintuitive picture: a draw is the modal outcome at 68% probability, with Celtic as home win 24% and Hearts 7%[^fact-2]. The model’s verdict carries high confidence, noting a 44 percentage-point margin to the runner-up probability[^fact-2]. That suggests the model sees factors beyond headline Elo separating balance from an expected home victory. ## Personnel Celtic’s attacking rhythm is being driven by Daizen Maeda, who has 6 goals and 1 assist in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.56 over that span[^fact-9]. His recent form is an obvious reason Celtic’s goals-per-game numbers edge high[^fact-4][^fact-9]. Absent for Celtic is Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, suspended after contributing 309 minutes in the recent run[^fact-11]. That suspension removes a player who has had tangible minutes in the sequence the data summarises[^fact-11]. Hearts’ most notable in-form outlet is Lawrence Shankland, with 3 goals and an average rating of 7.02 across his last five appearances[^fact-10]. Defensively, Hearts will be missing Craig Halkett through injury; Halkett had logged 693 minutes in the recent run before his absence[^fact-12]. That is a meaningful loss on paper given the low goals-against rate Hearts have posted across the sample[^fact-5][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value Markets were analysed across three markets versus the model[^fact-13], and the model surfaces value in outcomes that emphasise a low-scoring match and the possibility of one side failing to score. - Under 2.5 goals: the model assigns a 56% probability versus a market-implied price at Betfair of 2.63, producing an edge of 18.2 percentage points and labelled with high confidence by the model[^fact-6][^fact-13]. This lines up with Hearts’ 0.70 goals conceded per match and Celtic’s 1.20 conceded per match in the recent windows, which collectively point to the plausibility of a low aggregate score[^fact-5][^fact-4]. - Both Teams to Score — No: the model gives a 49% probability while the market price at 10Bet implies different odds (market price 2.40), yielding an edge of 7.7 percentage points at mid confidence[^fact-7][^fact-13]. The combined defensive profiles — Celtic conceding 1.20 and Hearts conceding 0.70 in the recent blocks — help explain why the model prizes the possibility of one clean sheet[^fact-4][^fact-5]. - Match winner — Home: the model’s internal match-winner probability of 64% contrasts with the market price at Interwetten of 1.67, an edge of 3.7 percentage points but with low confidence[^fact-8][^fact-13]. Note that this 64% figure mentioned by the model for the home outcome sits separately from the model’s match-level breakdown where Home is 24% and Draw 68% and Away 7%; the 64% is offered as a market-comparison datum in the value picks dataset[^fact-2][^fact-8]. ## Verdict The model’s headline probabilities favour a draw as the likeliest outcome (68%), despite Celtic’s Elo edge of +186 points and strong recent winning form[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4]. Market analysis flags the clearest edges in lower-goal outcomes — under 2.5 and No on both teams to score — with the largest margin coming on under 2.5 goals (56% model vs 2.63 market, edge 18.2 pp)[^fact-6][^fact-13]. Personnel shifts — Maeda’s scoring run and the absences of Oxlade-Chamberlain and Halkett — are the most concrete match-level levers available in the dataset[^fact-9][^fact-11][^fact-12]. The model therefore leans toward a tight, low-scoring contest with a draw the single most probable result by its own probabilities[^fact-2]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 11:30 UTC — Premiership [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 24% / Draw 68% / Away 7% (source: model; confidence high, 44 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — CEL vs Hearts — Elo differential +186 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **CEL recent form** — WWWWW last 10: 8-1-1 (W-D-L), 2.50 PPG, 2.10 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Hearts recent form** — WDWWW last 10: 7-2-1 (W-D-L), 2.30 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 0.70 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 56% vs market price 2.63 at Betfair, edge 18.2 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 49% vs market price 2.40 at 10Bet, edge 7.7 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Home in Match Winner — model 64% vs market price 1.67 at Interwetten, edge 3.7 pp (low confidence). [^fact-9]: **CEL in-form player** — Daizen Maeda — 6 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.56. [^fact-10]: **Hearts in-form player** — Lawrence Shankland — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.02. [^fact-11]: **CEL key absence** — Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain out (suspension), 309 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Hearts key absence** — Craig Halkett out (injury), 693 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .