# Motor Lublin vs Cracovia Kraków > Ekstraklasa · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 12:45 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/849) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Motor Lublin 3–3 Cracovia Kraków ## Model verdict - **Motor Lublin win:** 30% - **Draw:** 63% - **Cracovia Kraków win:** 7% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Underdog at Home, Draw Market Dominates the Picture ## The stage A late-May Ekstraklasa fixture kicks off on Sat 16 May 2026 at 12:45 UTC, bringing a compact timetable to the weekend slate[^fact-1]. The model gives a clear market signal: draw is the most likely outcome according to the algorithm, with the model verdict distribution showing Home 30% / Draw 63% / Away 7% and a high-confidence gap to the runner-up[^fact-2]. The same quantitative engine also applies a sizable Elo advantage to the home side, listing an Elo differential of +136 points with home advantage applied[^fact-3]. ## Form & momentum Recent results paint two different pictures. The home side has produced a mixed sequence described as WLLLD over the last 10 fixtures, translating to a 4-3-3 record (W-D-L), 1.50 points per game, 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded on average[^fact-4]. The visitors arrive on a poorer run, shown as DDDLD in their last 10, a 1-4-5 record (W-D-L), just 0.70 points per game, 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The Elo edge and the home side’s superior recent numbers suggest a theoretical edge for the hosts on paper, but the model’s match probabilities still favour a draw by a very wide margin[^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Personnel The home side’s most in-form attacking influence is Bartosz Wolski, who has contributed 2 goals and 2 assists across his last 5 appearances and carries an average rating of 7.31 over that span[^fact-9]. The visitors’ standout performer over the same sample is Ajdin Hasic, with 0 goals, 1 assist and an average rating of 7.14 in his last 5 appearances[^fact-10]. Key absences matter for both teams: the hosts will be without Ivan Brkic through injury, a player who has logged 563 minutes in the recent run[^fact-11], while the visitors will miss Gustav Henriksson through suspension, a player who has totaled 766 minutes in the recent run[^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value Three market comparisons were analysed against the model[^fact-13]. The clearest edge is on the low-scoring side: "No in Both Teams to Score" is flagged by the model at 65% probability versus a market price of 2.30 at 10Bet, an edge of 21.7 percentage points and described with high confidence[^fact-6]. That dovetails with the model’s separate lean toward fewer goals: Under 2.5 goals is scored with a model probability of 66% versus a market price of 2.15 at Pinnacle, an edge of 19.6 percentage points and again with high confidence[^fact-7]. The model also finds value backing the draw in the match-winner market, assigning a 36% chance to a draw versus a Betfair price implying a lower probability at 3.60, an edge of 8.6 percentage points with high confidence[^fact-8]. Those three edges line up: a strong probability of a draw, a strong probability of under 2.5 goals, and a strong probability that both teams will not score[^fact-2][^fact-7][^fact-6]. The statistical profile—home team with slightly better goal production and defensive solidity, away team struggling for goals and leaking chances—feeds into a match that the model sees as tight and low on finishes[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Verdict The quantitative consensus leans toward a stalemate: the model’s highest single probability is the draw, and that view is supported by value signals for both "no BTTS" and Under 2.5 goals alongside an explicit pricing edge on the draw itself[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. Given the Elo cushion for the hosts but the low attacking returns from both sides, the clean summary is a tight, low-scoring draw as the most likely match narrative according to the model outputs[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 12:45 UTC — Ekstraklasa [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 30% / Draw 63% / Away 7% (source: model; confidence high, 33 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Motor Lublin vs Cracovia Kraków — Elo differential +136 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Motor Lublin recent form** — WLLLD last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Cracovia Kraków recent form** — DDDLD last 10: 1-4-5 (W-D-L), 0.70 PPG, 0.80 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 65% vs market price 2.30 at 10Bet, edge 21.7 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 66% vs market price 2.15 at Pinnacle, edge 19.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Draw in Match Winner — model 36% vs market price 3.60 at Betfair, edge 8.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **Motor Lublin in-form player** — Bartosz Wolski — 2 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.31. [^fact-10]: **Cracovia Kraków in-form player** — Ajdin Hasic — 0 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.14. [^fact-11]: **Motor Lublin key absence** — Ivan Brkic out (injury), 563 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Cracovia Kraków key absence** — Gustav Henriksson out (suspension), 766 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .