# GAIS vs Degerfors > Allsvenskan · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 13:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/851) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** GAIS 1–1 Degerfors ## Model verdict - **GAIS win:** 78% - **Draw:** 13% - **Degerfors win:** 9% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home heavyweights expected to control tempo and outcome ## The stage This Allsvenskan fixture kicks off Sat 16 May 2026 at 13:00 UTC, with home advantage baked into pre-match assessments.[^fact-1][^fact-3] ## Form & momentum Recent sequences offer a clear contrast. GAIS arrive with a last-10 sequence reading WWDDL, recorded as 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats, producing 1.20 points per game and scoring 1.30 goals while conceding 1.10 per match.[^fact-4] Degerfors’ last-10 sequence is LDDWL, recorded as 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats, producing 1.50 points per game and averaging 1.40 goals for and 1.40 against.[^fact-5] Behind those raw runs, the model gives a heavy edge to the home side: Home 78% / Draw 13% / Away 9%, with confidence flagged as high and a 65 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome.[^fact-2] That sits alongside a substantive Elo differential of +254 points in GAIS’s favour after home advantage is applied.[^fact-3] Taken together, the data paints this as a match where GAIS enter as clear favourites on form-adjusted ratings despite Degerfors posting slightly better recent points per game and higher goals-scored figures over the same sample.[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3][^fact-2] ## Personnel GAIS’s pick of the in-form player to watch is William Milovanovic, who has contributed 1 goal and 2 assists in his last 4 appearances and carries an average match rating of 6.97 across that run.[^fact-9] For Degerfors, Daniel Sundgren is the standout recent performer, providing 2 assists in his last 5 appearances and also averaging a 6.97 rating across those matches.[^fact-10] The heaviest absence noted is on the home side: Gustav Lundgren is out injured, and he logged 267 minutes in the recent run before that absence was recorded.[^fact-11] ## Where the model sees value Three market dislocations were analysed against the model.[^fact-12] The clearest edge is on the Match Winner market: the model rates a Home win at 78% while the Betfair Exchange price is 1.71, producing an edge of 19.4 percentage points and flagged with high confidence.[^fact-2][^fact-6] The second-ranked value view is on Both Teams to Score — No: the model gives No a 64% probability versus a Betfair Exchange price of 1.95, an edge of 12.8 percentage points and high confidence attached.[^fact-7] The third market inefficiency identified is Under 2.5 Goals: the model assigns Under a 63% chance while the market quotes 1.93 at Betfair Exchange, yielding an 11.4 percentage-point edge and, again, high confidence.[^fact-8] Each of these opportunities is reported alongside the model’s overall lean: a dominant home probability, a tilt toward a single-sided scoreline and a preference for fewer total goals than the market implies.[^fact-2][^fact-7][^fact-8] ## Verdict The model leans decisively toward the home side, assigning GAIS a 78% probability of victory and projecting an outcome where Degerfors struggle to both win and necessarily score, a view reinforced by a +254 Elo edge and three well-defined market edges on home win, BTTS No and Under 2.5 goals.[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 13:00 UTC — Allsvenskan [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 78% / Draw 13% / Away 9% (source: model; confidence high, 65 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — GAIS vs Degerfors — Elo differential +254 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **GAIS recent form** — WWDDL last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Degerfors recent form** — LDDWL last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 78% vs market price 1.71 at Betfair Exchange, edge 19.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 64% vs market price 1.95 at Betfair Exchange, edge 12.8 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 63% vs market price 1.93 at Betfair Exchange, edge 11.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **GAIS in-form player** — William Milovanovic — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 6.97. [^fact-10]: **Degerfors in-form player** — Daniel Sundgren — 0 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.97. [^fact-11]: **GAIS key absence** — Gustav Lundgren out (injury), 267 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .