# Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 > Bundesliga · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 13:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/852) **Status:** Scheduled ## Pre-match deep dive ### Zivzivadze’s hot streak meets Mainz’s weakened attack ## The stage Bundesliga business on Saturday lunchtime: kickoff at 13:30 UTC on Sat 16 May 2026, with the fixture listed as part of the Bundesliga schedule[^fact-1]. The supplied facts do not include a stadium, so this preview concentrates on timing and competitive context from the available data[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Heidenheim arrive with an uneven but recognisably resilient run: WDWLW over their last ten matches, translating to 1.20 points per game and an output of 1.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per match in that sample[^fact-2]. Mainz present a slightly cleaner recent ledger — LWLDL across ten, worth 1.50 points per game with 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per match in the same span[^fact-3]. On raw recent form, Mainz have the edge in points and a marginally superior goals balance[^fact-3]. That marginal advantage in recent returns frames the contest as finely poised: Heidenheim’s numbers show a side that produces goals but also concedes at the same rate, whereas Mainz’s figures suggest slightly better control over results and conceding less frequently than they score[^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Heidenheim’s primary attacking threat in the short term is Budu Zivzivadze — five goals and no assists in his last five appearances, accompanied by an average match rating of 7.14 across that run[^fact-4]. That sequence identifies Zivzivadze as the focal point for final-third production for Heidenheim in recent weeks[^fact-4]. Mainz’s most notable recent performer in the data is Sheraldo Becker, who registered two goals and one assist over his last five appearances with an average rating of 7.05[^fact-5]. The same dataset, however, lists Becker as a key absence through suspension, and his recent involvement totalled 775 minutes before that suspension[^fact-7][^fact-5]. For Mainz, losing a player who combined goal contributions and a high average rating in recent games represents a clear personnel shock to their attacking construction[^fact-5][^fact-7]. On the defensive availability front for Heidenheim, Marnon Busch is absent with injury after contributing 651 minutes in the recent sample[^fact-6]. That loss removes one of the minutes-heavy contributors from Heidenheim’s recent rotation and will force the side to reshuffle minutes in the areas Busch occupied[^fact-6]. Both absences are heavy in different ways: Mainz lose their most productive recent attacking outlet by suspension (Becker, 775 minutes) while Heidenheim lose a durable contributor in defensive minutes (Busch, 651 minutes)[^fact-7][^fact-6]. The interplay of those absences matters more than hypothetical tactical pivots because the facts supply minutes and outputs rather than detailed formation notes[^fact-6][^fact-7]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s edges are framed by three hard facts: Heidenheim’s goals-for and goals-against parity in recent matches (1.90 scored / 1.90 conceded) versus Mainz’s slightly cleaner recent profile (1.60 scored / 1.50 conceded), the concentrated scoring hot streak from Zivzivadze, and Mainz’s concurrent loss of their recent attacking contributor Becker[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-7]. Against market consensus, those elements imply value in markets sensitive to a single hot striker’s influence and to opponent absences — for example, player-goals markets that isolate Zivzivadze’s form relative to Becker’s unavailability, and match lines that price expected goal volatility given Heidenheim’s equal goals-for and -against rates[^fact-4][^fact-7][^fact-2]. Additionally, personnel minutes supplied in the facts (Busch 651 minutes; Becker 775 minutes) indicate genuine disruptions to recent rhythm rather than token absences, which lends weight to markets that adjust for availability shocks rather than long-term form alone[^fact-6][^fact-7]. The model therefore flags edges where the market underestimates the impact of Becker’s suspension on Mainz’s attacking cohesion and where Zivzivadze’s concentrated scoring run can be priced independently of team-level averages[^fact-5][^fact-4]. No specific market odds are supplied in the available data; all edges above are stated relative to the market rather than expressed as numeric price suggestions, using only the supplied performance and availability facts[^fact-1][^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ## Verdict This is a tight matchup on paper: Mainz hold a small recent-form edge by points and goals balance, but Heidenheim bring a red-hot finisher in Budu Zivzivadze and suffer a defensive minutes loss, while Mainz lose their recent attacking catalyst through suspension; those three facts together tilt the model toward expecting an open game where Zivzivadze’s finishing and Becker’s absence are decisive variables[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 13:30 UTC — Bundesliga [^fact-2]: **HDH recent form** — WDWLW last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.90 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-3]: **M05 recent form** — LWLDL last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-4]: **HDH in-form player** — Budu Zivzivadze — 5 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.14. [^fact-5]: **M05 in-form player** — Sheraldo Becker — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.05. [^fact-6]: **HDH key absence** — Marnon Busch out (injury), 651 minutes in recent run. [^fact-7]: **M05 key absence** — Sheraldo Becker out (suspension), 775 minutes in recent run. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .