# Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 > Bundesliga · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 13:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/852) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Heidenheim 0–2 FSV Mainz 05 ## Model verdict - **Heidenheim win:** 13% - **Draw:** 14% - **FSV Mainz 05 win:** 73% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Away side shapes strong model advantage despite home comforts ## The stage This fixture between Heidenheim and FSV Mainz 05 kicks off on Sat 16 May 2026 at 13:30 UTC in the Bundesliga[^fact-1]. The scheduling places it at the tail end of the domestic calendar and frames it as a match where points and momentum can have outsized psychological value for both squads[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Mainz arrive into this tie with the clearer recent record: four wins, three draws and three defeats in their last ten matches, yielding 1.50 points per game and an output of 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Heidenheim’s last ten run is more muddied — three wins, three draws and four defeats, 1.20 points per game, and an identical goals-for and goals-against rate of 1.90 per match[^fact-4]. The Elo comparison, after the home advantage adjustment, gives Mainz a modest edge of 15 points over Heidenheim[^fact-3]. The model’s pre-match verdict is emphatic: 73% chance for the away side, with the home win and draw at 13% and 14% respectively; the model’s confidence gap to the runner-up is sizable at 59 percentage points[^fact-2]. Taken together, form metrics and the model both point toward Mainz being the team on better footing entering this game[^fact-5][^fact-2]. ## Personnel Heidenheim’s attacking thread centers on Budu Zivzivadze, who has scored five goals with zero assists in his last five appearances and carries an average rating of 7.13 over that span[^fact-8]. That kind of short-term goal run anchors Heidenheim’s offensive profile, especially given the team’s 1.90 goals-per-game rate across the recent sample[^fact-4][^fact-8]. The most consequential absence for Heidenheim is Marnon Busch, out injured after contributing 651 minutes in the recent run; losing that minutes-share removes a stable defensive presence from the rotation[^fact-10]. Mainz’s attacking rhythm has been helped by Sheraldo Becker across recent games — two goals and one assist in his last five appearances, with an average rating of 7.05[^fact-9]. That attacking influence will not factor into this match: Becker is suspended and therefore unavailable after 775 minutes in the recent run[^fact-11][^fact-9]. His absence strips Mainz of a recent goal contributor but the model still grades Mainz strongly overall, which implies adequate depth or structural resilience elsewhere in the squad according to the probabilistic estimate[^fact-2]. ## Where the model sees value Markets compared against the model total three in this analysis[^fact-12]. The clearest edge is on the Under 2.5 goals market: the model assigns a 40% probability to Under 2.5 while the market price sits at 3.00 with bet365 quoted in the comparison, producing an edge of 6.3 percentage points and a mid confidence assessment from the model[^fact-6]. The secondary selection flagged is “No” on Both Teams to Score: the model gives a 37% probability to BTTS = No against a market price shown as 2.99 at 22Bet, translating to an edge of 3.2 percentage points but with lower confidence[^fact-7]. Those two signals align with the match profile outlined above — relatively modest goals averages for both sides in their recent samples and the removal of a key Mainz attacker by suspension[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-11][^fact-8][^fact-9]. ## Verdict The model leans heavily to the away side, assigning Mainz the largest single-match likelihood at 73% versus 13% for a Heidenheim win and 14% for a draw, with a wide 59-point confidence gap to the runner-up[^fact-2]. The probabilistic picture, supported by the Elo tilt of −15 in Heidenheim’s favour-adjusted comparison[^fact-3], and the personnel picture — Heidenheim’s in-form scorer in place[^fact-8] and Mainz losing Sheraldo Becker to suspension[^fact-11][^fact-9] — creates a contest that the model rates as an away-favouring tie where low-scoring outcomes carry the clearest market edges[^fact-6][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 13:30 UTC — Bundesliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 13% / Draw 14% / Away 73% (source: model; confidence high, 59 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — HDH vs M05 — Elo differential -15 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **HDH recent form** — WDWLW last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.90 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **M05 recent form** — LWLDL last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 40% vs market price 3.00 at bet365, edge 6.3 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 37% vs market price 2.99 at 22Bet, edge 3.2 pp (low confidence). [^fact-8]: **HDH in-form player** — Budu Zivzivadze — 5 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.13. [^fact-9]: **M05 in-form player** — Sheraldo Becker — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.05. [^fact-10]: **HDH key absence** — Marnon Busch out (injury), 651 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **M05 key absence** — Sheraldo Becker out (suspension), 775 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .