# FC Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg > Bundesliga · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 13:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/853) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** FC Union Berlin 4–0 FC Augsburg ## Model verdict - **FC Union Berlin win:** 39% - **Draw:** 23% - **FC Augsburg win:** 37% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Narrow home edge, low-scoring market shows clearest value ## The stage Saturday’s midday kick-off lands at 13:30 UTC in a Bundesliga fixture that will matter for both sides’ season finales[^fact-1]. Union Berlin host Augsburg with the model assigning a razor-close split between home and away outcomes: Home 39% / Draw 23% / Away 37%[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Union Berlin arrive off a shaky run: two wins, two draws and six defeats in their last 10 matches, a 2-2-6 sequence that translates to 0.80 points per game and an attacking return of 1.10 goals scored while conceding 2.10 per match[^fact-4]. Augsburg’s more consistent block reads W-W-D-W-D across ten outings, a 4-3-3 record worth 1.50 points per game with 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded on average[^fact-5]. Elo gives the home side a very small edge once home advantage is applied: an Elo differential of +3 points in Union’s favour[^fact-3]. Taken together, form and Elo point to a match that is finely balanced but slanted toward a slightly tighter Union marginality rather than a one-sided affair[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Union’s in-form attacking outlet in the recent run was Andrej Ilic, who produced one goal and two assists across his last five appearances with an average rating of 7.27[^fact-9]. That attacking threat will be absent through injury; Ilic is out after contributing 675 minutes in the recent run[^fact-11][^fact-9]. Augsburg counter with Michael Gregoritsch as their most dangerous recent performer: three goals and one assist in his last four appearances, averaging a 7.41 match rating[^fact-10]. Defensively, Augsburg are missing Dimitrios Giannoulis due to injury; he leaves a 684-minute gap in the recent run[^fact-12]. The personnel picture matters because Union lose their most productive forward over the last five matches, while Augsburg are without a defensive regular who has logged significant minutes[^fact-11][^fact-12][^fact-9][^fact-10]. Those absences help explain why the model’s projected probabilities remain tightly clustered between home and away and why the match looks prone to fewer clear-cut chances from either side[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value Three market comparisons were analysed against the model[^fact-13], and all three point to value away from the headline match-winner price. - Under 2.5 goals: the model assigns a 50% probability while the market price at Pinnacle sits at 2.93, implying a model-market edge of 15.9 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. - Both teams to score — No: the model weights a 45% chance to the ‘No’ outcome while Betfair lists the market at 3.00, producing an 11.7 point edge (high confidence)[^fact-7]. - Match winner — Home: the model’s home probability is 47% against a Betfair Exchange market price equating to 2.78, an 11.2 point edge (high confidence)[^fact-8]. Those edges line up with the statistical footprint: Union’s recent matches have been leaky at the back while scoring little, and Augsburg are steadier but not prolific — circumstances that push the model toward compact scorelines and reward market offers on low-scoring outcomes[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6][^fact-7]. The absence of Union’s recent attacking contributor further tilts the expectation toward fewer goals and increases the credibility of the ‘Both teams to score — No’ angle[^fact-11][^fact-9][^fact-7]. ## Verdict The model leans to a narrow home advantage but paints this as a coin-flip contest: Home 39%, Draw 23%, Away 37% with low confidence between the top two outcomes[^fact-2]. Practical translation: expect a tight game with a reasonable chance of under 2.5 goals and a solid probability that one side keeps a clean sheet — those are the markets where the model finds consistent edges versus public prices[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 13:30 UTC — Bundesliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 39% / Draw 23% / Away 37% (source: model; confidence low, 2 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — FCU vs FCA — Elo differential +3 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **FCU recent form** — WDLLL last 10: 2-2-6 (W-D-L), 0.80 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 2.10 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **FCA recent form** — WWDWD last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.70 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 50% vs market price 2.93 at Pinnacle, edge 15.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 45% vs market price 3.00 at Betfair, edge 11.7 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Home in Match Winner — model 47% vs market price 2.78 at Betfair Exchange, edge 11.2 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **FCU in-form player** — Andrej Ilic — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.27. [^fact-10]: **FCA in-form player** — Michael Gregoritsch — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.41. [^fact-11]: **FCU key absence** — Andrej Ilic out (injury), 675 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **FCA key absence** — Dimitrios Giannoulis out (injury), 684 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .