# FC Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg > Bundesliga · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 13:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/853) **Status:** Scheduled ## Pre-match deep dive ### Union’s attacking void hands Augsburg clear tactical momentum ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Sat 16 May 2026, 13:30 UTC in Bundesliga[^fact-1]. The fixture sits late in the domestic calendar and will be played under the usual pressure of season-closure consequences; specifics of the venue are those listed in the official fixture[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Form lines paint two different trajectories. FC Union Berlin arrive off a run that reads WDLLL over the last ten matches — 2 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats — producing 0.80 points per game and averaging 1.10 goals scored while conceding 2.10 per match[^fact-2]. By contrast, FC Augsburg come in hotter: WWDWD across their last ten, a 4-3-3 record, yielding 1.50 points per game with 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per match[^fact-3]. Those numbers locate Augsburg as the steadier side in recent weeks and suggest momentum favors them coming into the weekend[^fact-3]. ## Personnel Union's offensive mojo has recently been concentrated in one player: Andrej Ilic, who registered 1 goal and 2 assists in his last five appearances with an average rating of 7.27[^fact-4]. That influence is now absent — Ilic is out injured after contributing 675 minutes in the recent run[^fact-6]. Augsburg's attacking form has leaned on Michael Gregoritsch, who has 3 goals and 1 assist in his last four appearances and carries a 7.42 average rating[^fact-5]. Defensively, Augsburg lose Arthur Chaves to injury after 608 minutes in the recent stretch[^fact-7]. Those twin absences — Ilic for Union and Chaves for Augsburg — are the heaviest personnel swings in the data set and will be decisive on how each side adapts[^fact-6][^fact-7]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s edges are shaped by two clear inputs: Union’s drop in attacking output with their key creator unavailable and Augsburg’s superior recent points and goal balance[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-6][^fact-5]. That combination reduces the expected offensive ceiling for Union while limiting the damage of Augsburg’s defensive absence; the data-backed view favours markets that reflect Augsburg’s steadier form rather than chancier lines that overvalue home recovery[^fact-3][^fact-2]. Because the available facts do not include market prices, the write-up does not append specific numeric odds. Instead, the actionable angles implied by the numbers are: favour outcomes that underweight Union’s attacking continuity given Ilic’s absence[^fact-6][^fact-4]; consider positions that credit Augsburg’s recent consistency and goal production anchored by Gregoritsch[^fact-3][^fact-5]; and be cautious about lines that assume a high aggregate goal total given Union’s defensive concession rate and loss of their main offensive outlet[^fact-2][^fact-6]. ## Verdict The model leans toward the side showing more reliable recent returns: Augsburg’s form and goals profile outweigh Union’s troubled sequence, particularly with Andrej Ilic unavailable and Michael Gregoritsch in clear attacking touch[^fact-3][^fact-6][^fact-5]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 13:30 UTC — Bundesliga [^fact-2]: **FCU recent form** — WDLLL last 10: 2-2-6 (W-D-L), 0.80 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 2.10 conceded per match. [^fact-3]: **FCA recent form** — WWDWD last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.70 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-4]: **FCU in-form player** — Andrej Ilic — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.27. [^fact-5]: **FCA in-form player** — Michael Gregoritsch — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.42. [^fact-6]: **FCU key absence** — Andrej Ilic out (injury), 675 minutes in recent run. [^fact-7]: **FCA key absence** — Arthur Chaves out (injury), 608 minutes in recent run. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .