# Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV > Bundesliga · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 13:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/854) **Status:** Scheduled ## Pre-match deep dive ### In-form striker carries heavy scoring load into midday fixture ## The stage This one lands at kickoff on Sat 16 May 2026, 13:30 UTC — a Bundesliga afternoon fixture that compresses end‑of‑season intensity into a lunch‑time slot[^fact-1]. The match reads as a straightforward measuring stick: a team with superior recent returns hosting a side that has struggled for consistency across its last blocks of matches[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Bayer 04 Leverkusen arrive in steadier nick: their sequence reads LWWLW in the most recent 10-match window, translating to a 5‑3‑2 record (W‑D‑L), 1.80 points per game, and an attacking output of 2.30 goals while conceding 1.70 per match[^fact-2]. That profile suggests a side producing goals at a healthy clip while still vulnerable at the back on occasion[^fact-2]. Hamburger SV's recent numbers tell a different story: WWLLL across their last 10 matches — a 3‑2‑5 record (W‑D‑L) — and a points yield of 1.10 per game, with 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per match[^fact-3]. The combination of a lower goals‑for figure and a higher goals‑against number than their opponents points to problems both in creating and in preventing chances[^fact-3]. On balance of form and basic output metrics, the momentum needle tilts toward the hosts, who have been more prolific and marginally more profitable in points per game over the period supplied[^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Bayer 04’s in‑form focal point is Patrik Schick: six goals, zero assists in his last five appearances, with an average match rating of 7.39 across that run[^fact-4]. That profile reads as a pure finisher delivering a high conversion rate inside a short sample; the host attack is clearly channeled through his finishes in recent weeks[^fact-4]. Leverkusen will be without Nathan Tella through injury; Tella has accumulated 424 minutes in the recent run and his absence removes a chunk of attacking minutes and rotation options[^fact-6]. That minutes total quantifies how much pitch time the side will need to rebalance without him[^fact-6]. Hamburg’s in‑form contributor is Albert Grønbæk, who brings one goal and two assists in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.15 across the same span[^fact-5]. His returns indicate influence in chance creation in the immediate term[^fact-5]. The visitors’ declared absentee is William Mikelbrencis, out injured after contributing 661 minutes in the recent run; that volume makes his absence meaningful to squad selection and minutes distribution[^fact-7]. The loss removes a steady allotment of playing time the side had relied upon[^fact-7]. ## Where the model sees value - Leverkusen’s finishing density through Patrik Schick is the clearest structural edge: six goals in five matches with an average rating of 7.39 suggests the team’s firepower is concentrated and currently clinical[^fact-4]. That concentration increases the host’s chance of converting fewer good opportunities into goals compared with a more diffuse attack[^fact-4]. - Hamburg’s defensive fragility, expressed as 1.90 goals conceded per match in the recent sample, contrasts with Leverkusen’s 2.30 goals scored per match in the same window; the intersection of those two metrics is the core statistical justification for expecting a higher aggregate in goals or favoring outcomes that credit Leverkusen’s attack[^fact-2][^fact-3]. - Both sides are missing players who logged significant minutes in the recent run: Leverkusen lose 424 minutes of involvement with Nathan Tella out, and Hamburg lose 661 minutes with William Mikelbrencis unavailable[^fact-6][^fact-7]. Those absences complicate any simple reading of squad strength and are a reminder to weight recent minutes‑based form lines rather than raw season totals[^fact-6][^fact-7]. Because market prices are not supplied here, the explicit edges are directional: favour outcomes that give credit to Leverkusen’s concentrated goal return through Schick and to match scenarios that exploit Hamburg’s higher goals‑against rate, while adjusting exposure for the minutes lost by each side through the named absences[^fact-4][^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ## Verdict Leverkusen enter with clearer attacking momentum and a match‑level profile that tilts toward goals, underpinned by Patrik Schick’s six goals and strong ratings in the last five matches; Hamburg’s recent struggles at both ends and the loss of substantial minutes to injury shape an uphill task for the visitors[^fact-4][^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-7]. The tie therefore reads in favour of the hosts, with caveats around the minutes lost to injuries on both sides that will affect rotation and intensity[^fact-6][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 13:30 UTC — Bundesliga [^fact-2]: **B04 recent form** — LWWLW last 10: 5-3-2 (W-D-L), 1.80 PPG, 2.30 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-3]: **HSV recent form** — WWLLL last 10: 3-2-5 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-4]: **B04 in-form player** — Patrik Schick — 6 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.39. [^fact-5]: **HSV in-form player** — Albert Grønbæk — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.15. [^fact-6]: **B04 key absence** — Nathan Tella out (injury), 424 minutes in recent run. [^fact-7]: **HSV key absence** — William Mikelbrencis out (injury), 661 minutes in recent run. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .