# Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV > Bundesliga · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 13:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/854) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1–1 Hamburger SV ## Model verdict - **Bayer 04 Leverkusen win:** 74% - **Draw:** 16% - **Hamburger SV win:** 10% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home heavyweights expected to control tempo and the scoreboard ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Sat 16 May 2026, 13:30 UTC in the Bundesliga[^fact-1]. The fixture sits squarely in the final stretch where three points and goal difference matter; the model attaches a clear home bias to the outcome[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Leverkusen arrive with a W–W–L–W–L sequence inside their last 10 matches, translating to a 5-3-2 record and 1.80 points per game, while averaging 2.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per match in that span[^fact-4]. Hamburger SV’s recent ten shows more volatility: W–W–L–L–L, recorded as 3-2-5 and 1.10 points per game, with 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per match[^fact-5]. On raw rating terms the home side carries a substantive edge: an Elo differential of +290 points in Leverkusen’s favour after home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. Those three data lines—form, per-game output and Elo—point to a pronounced momentum mismatch heading into kickoff[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3]. ## Personnel The attacking tile for Leverkusen is hot: Patrik Schick has 6 goals, 0 assists in his last 5 appearances and an average match rating of 7.37[^fact-9]. That strike form is a clear outlet for the hosts. Hamburg’s most productive recent contributor is Albert Grønbæk, who brings 1 goal and 2 assists across his last 5 appearances and an average rating of 7.15[^fact-10]. His numbers suggest influence, but not the same scoring frequency as Leverkusen’s leading man[^fact-9][^fact-10]. Availability notes cut both ways: Nathan Tella is absent for Leverkusen with an injury and contributed 424 minutes in the recent run prior to his exit[^fact-11]. Hamburg will be without William Mikelbrencis, who logged 661 minutes in the recent run before his injury absence[^fact-12]. Those absences remove rotation options on either flank and should shape substitution windows and match management[^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s probabilities and market prices diverge most strongly on match scoring lines and goal-exposure props[^fact-2][^fact-13]. Top edges identified: - Under 2.5 goals: the model rates this outcome at 36% versus a market price of 4.12 at Betfair Exchange, creating a 12.0 percentage-point edge (high confidence)[^fact-6]. - Both Teams to Score — No: model 43% versus market price 2.50 at 888Sport; edge 3.3 percentage points (low confidence)[^fact-7]. - Both Teams to Score — Yes: model 64% versus market price 1.66 at Betfair Exchange; edge 3.3 percentage points (low confidence)[^fact-8]. Three market options were analysed against the model in this briefing[^fact-13]. The standout is the under 2.5 goals line, where the model’s edge is largest and signalled with high confidence[^fact-6]. The two Both Teams to Score metrics point in opposite directions on probability versus market pricing but show only small edges and lower confidence, indicating model uncertainty between a clean-sheet outcome and a goal-exchange game[^fact-7][^fact-8]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively to the home side with a 74% probability, a 58 percentage-point margin to the nearest rival, and a 16% chance of a draw with an away chance of 10%[^fact-2]. Layered with a +290 Elo cushion and superior recent goal output, the picture favours Leverkusen controlling the match tempo and converting chances while Hamburg must contend with both a defensive strain and lower attacking throughput[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. The clearest market inefficiency is the under 2.5 goals line, where the model’s high-confidence edge stands out against the prices available[^fact-6][^fact-13]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 13:30 UTC — Bundesliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 74% / Draw 16% / Away 10% (source: model; confidence high, 58 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — B04 vs HSV — Elo differential +290 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **B04 recent form** — LWWLW last 10: 5-3-2 (W-D-L), 1.80 PPG, 2.30 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **HSV recent form** — WWLLL last 10: 3-2-5 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 36% vs market price 4.12 at Betfair Exchange, edge 12.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 43% vs market price 2.50 at 888Sport, edge 3.3 pp (low confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Yes in Both Teams to Score — model 64% vs market price 1.66 at Betfair Exchange, edge 3.3 pp (low confidence). [^fact-9]: **B04 in-form player** — Patrik Schick — 6 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.37. [^fact-10]: **HSV in-form player** — Albert Grønbæk — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.15. [^fact-11]: **B04 key absence** — Nathan Tella out (injury), 424 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **HSV key absence** — William Mikelbrencis out (injury), 661 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .