# Borussia Mönchengladbach vs TSG Hoffenheim > Bundesliga · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 13:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/855) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Borussia Mönchengladbach 4–0 TSG Hoffenheim ## Model verdict - **Borussia Mönchengladbach win:** 17% - **Draw:** 22% - **TSG Hoffenheim win:** 62% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model leans Hoffenheim despite narrow recent margins ## The stage Kickoff is set for Sat 16 May 2026, 13:30 UTC in the Bundesliga[^fact-1]. This afternoon fixture is being read through a model that gives a decisive probability split rather than a coin toss: Home 17% / Draw 22% / Away 62%[^fact-2]. The model notes a 40 percentage-point confidence gap to the runner-up projection, signalling a pronounced lean[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Borussia Mönchengladbach arrive with a mixed set of results: LWDDL in their last ten and a points-per-game rate of 1.30, scoring 1.20 and conceding 1.40 per match in that stretch[^fact-4]. Hoffenheim have the fresher numbers on paper with WDWWD over ten, a 1.50 PPG rate, 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The model’s probability spread aligns with the underlying strength gap: an Elo differential of -44 points against the home side after applying home advantage, which favours Hoffenheim here[^fact-3]. ## Personnel Mönchengladbach’s most notable recent attacking contributor in the data is Rocco Reitz, who had 0 goals and 2 assists in his last five appearances with an average match rating of 7.50[^fact-9]. That influence will be missing: Reitz is out injured after 755 minutes in the recent run[^fact-11]. Hoffenheim’s hot player is Andrej Kramaric, with 4 goals and 1 assist in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.49[^fact-10]. Hoffenheim also have a defensive absence to account for, with Ozan Kabak out after 900 minutes in the recent run[^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value The model flags three standalone edges against the market across three analysed markets[^fact-13]. First, the model prefers Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 50% against a market price of 3.40 at bet365, yielding an edge of 20.3 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. Second, the model sees value in “No” for Both Teams to Score with a model probability of 46% versus a market price of 3.00 at Betfair, an edge of 12.6 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-7]. Third, the model’s core match-winner stance is Away, at 62% probability, contrasted with a 2.04 price at 22Bet and an edge of 12.5 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-8]. All three comparisons are part of the set of markets the model evaluated[^fact-13]. ## Verdict The model’s signal is clear: Hoffenheim as the away side carries the primary lean, reflected in a 62% match-win probability and a substantial confidence gap to the runner-up projection[^fact-2]; this sits comfortably with the -44 Elo differential after home advantage applied[^fact-3] and with Hoffenheim’s marginally stronger recent form numbers[^fact-5]. The absence of Rocco Reitz matters for Mönchengladbach’s recent attacking pattern[^fact-11][^fact-9], while Hoffenheim must cope without Ozan Kabak[^fact-12]. Secondary model preferences point toward a lower-scoring match and a non-both-teams-to-score outcome, where the model shows edges versus the market across three analysed markets[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-13]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 13:30 UTC — Bundesliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 17% / Draw 22% / Away 62% (source: model; confidence high, 40 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — BMG vs TSG — Elo differential -44 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **BMG recent form** — LWDDL last 10: 3-4-3 (W-D-L), 1.30 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **TSG recent form** — WDWWD last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 50% vs market price 3.40 at bet365, edge 20.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 46% vs market price 3.00 at Betfair, edge 12.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Away in Match Winner — model 62% vs market price 2.04 at 22Bet, edge 12.5 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **BMG in-form player** — Rocco Reitz — 0 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.50. [^fact-10]: **TSG in-form player** — Andrej Kramaric — 4 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.49. [^fact-11]: **BMG key absence** — Rocco Reitz out (injury), 755 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **TSG key absence** — Ozan Kabak out (injury), 900 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .