# Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart > Bundesliga · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 13:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/856) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Eintracht Frankfurt win:** 10% - **Draw:** 84% - **VfB Stuttgart win:** 7% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model pins fixture to a draw despite Stuttgart’s sharper form ## The stage Kickoff is Sat 16 May 2026, 13:30 UTC in the Bundesliga[^fact-1]. This is a home match for Eintracht Frankfurt[^fact-3] against VfB Stuttgart[^fact-3], a late-season meeting with league points and momentum on the line. ## Form & momentum Recent sequences make for a clear contrast. Eintracht Frankfurt arrive on a run recorded as LLDLW over their last 10 matches — three wins, three draws and four losses — producing 1.20 points per game, scoring 1.30 and conceding 1.40 per match[^fact-4]. Stuttgart’s last 10 read WDDLW — five wins, three draws, two losses — worth 1.80 points per game, with 2.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The Elo ledger, with home advantage applied, gives Stuttgart a 48-point edge over Eintracht Frankfurt[^fact-3]. Taken together, form and Elo point to Stuttgart being the hotter outfit in attack and results[^fact-5][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Spotlight players are straightforward. For Eintracht Frankfurt, Can Uzun has two goals and one assist in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.15[^fact-6]. For Stuttgart, Chris Führich brings three goals and one assist in his last five with an average rating of 7.45[^fact-7]. The absences to account for are meaningful minutes lost: Eintracht Frankfurt will be without Nnamdi Collins (out injured), who logged 334 minutes in the recent run[^fact-8]; Stuttgart are missing Angelo Stiller (out injured), who contributed 873 minutes in the run before his absence[^fact-9]. Those minutes indicate which areas of each side might need reshaping, but the facts do not provide exact replacements or tactical adjustments. ## Where the model sees value The model’s verdict is heavily skewed toward a draw: Home 10% / Draw 84% / Away 7% (model confidence described as high, with a 74 percentage-point gap to the runner-up prediction)[^fact-2]. Markets were compared across three markets against the model’s outputs[^fact-10]. The single clearest edge is the draw: the model assigns an 84% probability to a stalemate, a margin that stands out against the markets analysed and against the split probabilities for either side to win[^fact-2][^fact-10]. Complementary edges follow from the same data: low-expectation outcomes for an Eintracht win (10%) and a Stuttgart win (7%) make heavy outright support for either side inconsistent with the model’s view[^fact-2]. Those are the principal divergences revealed by the three-market comparison; the supplied facts do not list market prices or exact odds. ## Verdict The model leans decisively to a draw, projecting an 84% probability and expressing high confidence in that result[^fact-2]. Form and Elo concede Stuttgart the momentum and attacking edge but not a clear win: the 48-point Elo advantage and superior recent scoring underline why Stuttgart look sharper, yet the model still resolves to parity[^fact-3][^fact-5]. Absent further market price details, the dominant story from the data is a fixture expected to finish level despite contrasting team trajectories[^fact-2][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 13:30 UTC — Bundesliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 10% / Draw 84% / Away 7% (source: model; confidence high, 74 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — SGE vs VFB — Elo differential -48 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **SGE recent form** — LLDLW last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **VFB recent form** — WDDLW last 10: 5-3-2 (W-D-L), 1.80 PPG, 2.50 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **SGE in-form player** — Can Uzun — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.15. [^fact-7]: **VFB in-form player** — Chris Führich — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.45. [^fact-8]: **SGE key absence** — Nnamdi Collins out (injury), 334 minutes in recent run. [^fact-9]: **VFB key absence** — Angelo Stiller out (injury), 873 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .