# Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart > Bundesliga · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 13:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/856) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Eintracht Frankfurt 2–2 VfB Stuttgart ## Model verdict - **Eintracht Frankfurt win:** 23% - **Draw:** 22% - **VfB Stuttgart win:** 55% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Visiting VfB Stuttgart arrive as clear model favourites ## The stage Kickoff is set for Sat 16 May 2026, 13:30 UTC in a Bundesliga fixture that pitches the home side against an away side carrying clear probabilistic momentum[^fact-1][^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent form lines tell a simple story: the home side has a LLDLW sequence in their last 10 matches, recorded as 3-3-4 (W-D-L) with 1.20 points per game and an output of 1.30 goals scored against 1.40 conceded per match[^fact-4]. The visitors arrive with the stronger recent numbers — a WDDLW run recorded as 5-3-2 (W-D-L), 1.80 points per game and a much higher attacking return at 2.50 goals scored while conceding 1.50 per match[^fact-5]. Those short-term trends are reinforced by the model’s pre-match probabilities: the away side is rated 55% to win, with the home side on 23% and the draw at 22%[^fact-2]. On an underlying rating scale that includes home adjustment, the Elo comparison gives the visitors a clear edge of -48 points in favour of the away side after home advantage has been applied[^fact-3]. The combination of superior recent attacking output and the Elo gap frames Stuttgart as the hotter side on the numbers[^fact-3][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Attackers supplying form are central to the matchup narrative. The home team’s in-form forward Can Uzun brings 2 goals and 1 assist across his last five appearances, with an average rating of 7.15 in that window[^fact-9]. The visiting side counters with Chris Führich, who has been more productive: 3 goals and 1 assist in his last five outings and an average rating of 7.45[^fact-10]. Availability issues also matter: Nnamdi Collins is out for the home side with an injury after 334 minutes in the recent run[^fact-11]. For the visitors, Angelo Stiller is listed out injured after contributing 873 minutes in his recent run[^fact-12]. Those absences are the heaviest confirmed personnel notes on each side and will shape selection and match rhythm[^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value Markets were compared against the model on three markets[^fact-13]. The clearest standalone edge is the away Match Winner: the model gives the away side 55% versus a market-implied probability from 22Bet listing of 2.04, yielding an edge of 5.8 percentage points (mid confidence)[^fact-6]. The model also sees a high likelihood that the game clears the goals line: Over 2.5 goals carries a 77% model probability versus a market price of 1.40 at 22Bet, an edge of 5.4 percentage points (mid confidence)[^fact-7]. Finally, Both Teams to Score (Yes) is judged likely by the model at 77% against a market price of 1.38 on the Betfair Exchange, an edge of 4.2 percentage points (low confidence)[^fact-8]. Those three signals paint a consistent picture: the model favours an open game with the away side driving the attack, and the market quotes examined show pockets of value on that simulated outcome[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-13]. The confidence tiers attached to each edge are explicitly mid for the two primary plays and low for the BTTS signal, which should factor into how the projections are weighted[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is unambiguous: the away side is the preferred outcome at 55% versus 23% for the home side and 22% for a draw, with a 32 percentage-point gap to the runner-up reflecting high model confidence[^fact-2]. Given the visitors’ superior recent attacking numbers and the -48 Elo differential after home adjustment, the statistical case favors an away win in a match likely to produce multiple goals[^fact-5][^fact-3][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 13:30 UTC — Bundesliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 23% / Draw 22% / Away 55% (source: model; confidence high, 32 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — SGE vs VFB — Elo differential -48 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **SGE recent form** — LLDLW last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **VFB recent form** — WDDLW last 10: 5-3-2 (W-D-L), 1.80 PPG, 2.50 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Away in Match Winner — model 55% vs market price 2.04 at 22Bet, edge 5.8 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 77% vs market price 1.40 at 22Bet, edge 5.4 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Yes in Both Teams to Score — model 77% vs market price 1.38 at Betfair Exchange, edge 4.2 pp (low confidence). [^fact-9]: **SGE in-form player** — Can Uzun — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.15. [^fact-10]: **VFB in-form player** — Chris Führich — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.45. [^fact-11]: **SGE key absence** — Nnamdi Collins out (injury), 334 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **VFB key absence** — Angelo Stiller out (injury), 873 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .