# SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig > Bundesliga · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 13:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/859) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** SC Freiburg 4–1 RB Leipzig ## Model verdict - **SC Freiburg win:** 33% - **Draw:** 38% - **RB Leipzig win:** 29% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Leipzig’s form says favourite; model insists draw is likeliest outcome ## The stage A late‑season Bundesliga fixture kicks off on Sat 16 May 2026 at 13:30 UTC, with home advantage nominally on the first‑named side[^fact-1]. This game sits on a compact calendar and the model produces a striking probability split that makes the draw the central storyline before a ball is kicked[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent results paint two very different pictures. The home side have gone LDLWW in their last 10, translating to a 3–2–5 W‑D‑L split and just 1.10 points per game, while averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per match in that span[^fact-4]. The visitors arrive on a hot run: WLWWW in their last 10, recorded as 8–0–2 W‑D‑L, worth 2.40 points per game and supported by 2.10 goals scored and only 1.10 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Despite the on‑pitch momentum favouring the visitors, the model still prices a stalemate at the center: Home 8% / Draw 85% / Away 7% — the draw probability dominates the projected distribution[^fact-2]. That view sits against an Elo differential of –72 points after home advantage is applied, signalling a nontrivial underlying edge to the visiting side on rating terms[^fact-3]. The contrast is clear: form and Elo point to a stronger away profile, but the probabilistic model concentrates mass on the draw[^fact-5][^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Personnel The creative fulcrum for the hosts in recent weeks has been Vincenzo Grifo, who brings 0 goals and 3 assists from his last five appearances and an average match rating of 6.86 in that run[^fact-9]. His numbers suggest creative output without finishing yield. The visitors’ key in‑form performer is Yan Diomande, who has 2 goals and 1 assist across his last five outings and an average rating of 7.49 — a clear offensive influence in the run that underpins their results[^fact-10]. Availability notes shift the fine margins. The home side will be without Yuito Suzuki through injury; he logged 492 minutes in the recent run before his absence[^fact-11]. The visitors are missing Xaver Schlager, who had played 535 minutes in the recent period prior to his injury absence[^fact-12]. These absences remove regular minutes on both sides and the model factors them into its output[^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value Three market comparisons were analysed against the model[^fact-13]. The clearest edge is on the away match winner: the model assigns the away win a 48% chance versus a Betfair Exchange market price implying 2.56, producing an edge of 9.1 percentage points and a high‑confidence flag from the model[^fact-6]. That is coherent with the visitor form and Elo profile, even though the aggregate model distribution piles probability on the draw[^fact-5][^fact-3][^fact-6]. Secondary opportunities sit on totals and both‑teams‑score lines. The model gives "Under 2.5 goals" a 38% probability against a Betfair Exchange market price corresponding to 3.05, a 5.1 pp edge flagged with mid confidence[^fact-7]. The same market price appears on "No" for both teams to score, where the model’s 37% probability creates a 4.3 pp edge but with lower confidence[^fact-8]. Both calls imply the model sees a meaningful chance of a low‑scoring affair or one side failing to score, even while assigning heavy mass to a draw overall[^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-2]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is emphatic: an 85% probability for a draw dominates its forecast, despite Elo favouring the visitors by 72 points and strong recent form from the away side[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-5]. Where the market diverges, the model spots value on the away match winner at Betfair Exchange (48% model vs price 2.56) and smaller edges on under 2.5 goals and BTTS‑No, each with graded confidence levels[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-13]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 13:30 UTC — Bundesliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 8% / Draw 85% / Away 7% (source: model; confidence high, 77 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — SCF vs RBL — Elo differential -72 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **SCF recent form** — LDLWW last 10: 3-2-5 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **RBL recent form** — WLWWW last 10: 8-0-2 (W-D-L), 2.40 PPG, 2.10 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Away in Match Winner — model 48% vs market price 2.56 at Betfair Exchange, edge 9.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 38% vs market price 3.05 at Betfair Exchange, edge 5.1 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 37% vs market price 3.05 at Betfair Exchange, edge 4.3 pp (low confidence). [^fact-9]: **SCF in-form player** — Vincenzo Grifo — 0 goals, 3 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.86. [^fact-10]: **RBL in-form player** — Yan Diomande — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.49. [^fact-11]: **SCF key absence** — Yuito Suzuki out (injury), 492 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **RBL key absence** — Xaver Schlager out (injury), 535 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .