# Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund > Bundesliga · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 13:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/860) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Werder Bremen 0–2 Borussia Dortmund ## Model verdict - **Werder Bremen win:** 10% - **Draw:** 15% - **Borussia Dortmund win:** 76% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model screams draw while markets favour the visitors ## The stage This fixture arrives on Sat 16 May 2026 at 13:30 UTC, closing a Bundesliga weekend with a crunch feeling despite the calendar slot[^fact-1]. The model markets the contest as overwhelmingly likely to finish level, assigning a draw probability that dwarfs either side: Home 8% / Draw 86% / Away 7%[^fact-2]. That distribution sets expectations: a limp, low-variance outcome is the statistical baseline rather than an open shootout[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Formlines point to contrasting rhythms. SV Werder Bremen’s ten-match readout stands LLDWL, recorded as 4-1-5 (W-D-L), producing 1.30 points per game and averages of 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Borussia Dortmund’s last ten shows WLWLL, given as 6-0-4 (W-D-L), with 1.80 points per game and 1.90 goals scored against 1.20 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The Elo differential, with home advantage applied, strongly favours the visitors: an edge of -177 points for SVW versus BVB[^fact-3]. That Elo gap underscores why the model’s probabilistic centre is so locked to a draw despite Dortmund’s superior form metrics—market-implied expectations are being pulled by the ratings gap and recent outputs[^fact-3][^fact-5][^fact-4]. ## Personnel Standout contributors to recent runs are compact and easily measurable. Romano Schmid is the in-form nod for Bremen with 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 appearances and an average rating of 7.46[^fact-9]. For Dortmund, Maximilian Beier has recorded 1 goal and 2 assists across his last 5 outings, averaging a 7.13 match rating[^fact-10]. Important absences are defined and cannot be ignored: Yukinari Sugawara is suspended after 678 minutes in the recent run and will be unavailable for SVW[^fact-11]. Dortmund travel without Ramy Bensebaini due to injury; he contributed 489 minutes in the recent run before being ruled out[^fact-12]. Those two absences are the clearest individual-level disruptions identified by the dataset[^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value The model highlights three specific market edges against the public pricing across the three markets analysed[^fact-13]. First, the model indicates clear value on an away Match Winner: model probability 72% versus a market price of 2.10 at Betano, producing an edge of 24.5 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. Second, the model flags "No" on Both Teams to Score as a value line: model 51% versus market price 3.20 at Betfair Exchange, edge 20.1 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-7]. Third, the model sees value on Under 2.5 goals: model 47% versus market price 3.22 at Betfair Exchange, edge 16.4 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-8]. These three edges together outline a coherent profile: the model simultaneously expects a low-scoring game environment and assigns an elevated standalone win probability to the away side when compared with market odds[^fact-8][^fact-7][^fact-6]. That combination is unusual only to the extent that the market treats those outcomes independently; the model’s probabilities suggest a single scenario where defensive containment and a narrow away victory are consistent outcomes[^fact-6][^fact-8]. All value calls derive from comparison across the three markets analysed by the model[^fact-13]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is a strong, counterintuitive draw-centred forecast—draw 86% is the modal outcome in the model’s book—even as it also detects mispriced value that favours a visiting win in isolated markets and anticipates a low-scoring game overall[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-8]. Personnel losses on both sides are concrete and measurable; in-form contributors exist but are not presented as gamebreakers in the supplied data[^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-11][^fact-12]. The clearest headline is the model’s conviction in a drawn match while spotting notable, high-confidence market edges across three markets compared to the public pricing[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-13]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 13:30 UTC — Bundesliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 8% / Draw 86% / Away 7% (source: model; confidence high, 78 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — SVW vs BVB — Elo differential -177 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **SVW recent form** — LLDWL last 10: 4-1-5 (W-D-L), 1.30 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **BVB recent form** — WLWLL last 10: 6-0-4 (W-D-L), 1.80 PPG, 1.90 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Away in Match Winner — model 72% vs market price 2.10 at Betano, edge 24.5 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 51% vs market price 3.20 at Betfair Exchange, edge 20.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 47% vs market price 3.22 at Betfair Exchange, edge 16.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **SVW in-form player** — Romano Schmid — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.46. [^fact-10]: **BVB in-form player** — Maximilian Beier — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.13. [^fact-11]: **SVW key absence** — Yukinari Sugawara out (suspension), 678 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **BVB key absence** — Ramy Bensebaini out (injury), 489 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .