# Fredrikstad vs HamKam > Eliteserien · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 14:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/865) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Fredrikstad 2–1 HamKam ## Model verdict - **Fredrikstad win:** 76% - **Draw:** 17% - **HamKam win:** 7% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Draw market dominates as home edge struggles to convince ## The stage This fixture kicks off on Sat 16 May 2026 at 14:00 UTC as part of the Eliteserien schedule[^fact-1]. Venue specifics are not provided in the supplied facts, but the model has already applied home advantage into its forecast[^fact-3]. That home-adjusted Elo tilt exists alongside a market where a draw currently represents the single largest model-implied outcome[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Formlines tell divergent stories. Fredrikstad arrive without wins in their last five and only two wins across the most recent ten outings, a sequence summarised as LLLLD and 2-1-7 (W-D-L), yielding 0.70 points per game with an attacking output of 1.00 goals scored and a defensive return of 2.30 conceded per match[^fact-4]. By contrast, HamKam show clearer forward motion: their last five read WDWWL and their last ten tally 5-1-4 (W-D-L), producing 1.60 points per game while averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Those raw results are reflected in a substantial Elo differential after home advantage is applied: Fredrikstad hold a +112 point edge over HamKam in the model’s Elo comparison[^fact-3]. Despite that positive Elo gap for the home side, the model still assigns the most probability to a draw in this fixture rather than a home win[^fact-2]. The model’s verdict is also presented with high confidence, a 15 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Fredrikstad’s attacking spark in recent weeks has been Daniel Eid, who has contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in his last five appearances and carries an average match rating of 7.20 over that span[^fact-7]. The club will be without Leonard Owusu due to injury; Owusu accounted for 815 minutes in the recent run prior to his absence[^fact-9]. That loss should be considered material when reading Fredrikstad’s low scoring rate in the supplied period[^fact-4]. HamKam’s primary form asset is Henrik Udahl, who has scored 4 goals in his last five appearances with an average rating of 7.19 over those matches[^fact-8]. The supplied facts do not list further absences or rotation notes for HamKam, so the focus falls on Udahl’s finishing form when projecting the away side’s chance generation[^fact-8]. ## Where the model sees value The model probabilities and market comparisons point to a single standout edge: the draw in Match Winner. The model assigns a 54% probability to a draw[^fact-2], while the Betfair Exchange market price is 3.75, representing an implied probability materially lower than the model’s view and creating a model-market edge of 27.3 percentage points[^fact-6]. Confidence in that particular edge is rated high by the model’s own assessment[^fact-6]. Two other market-versus-model comparisons were analysed in the supplied facts, bringing the total number of markets compared to three[^fact-10]. Those additional markets are not detailed in the provided facts, so the draw stands out both on the numbers available and in the supplied market analysis[^fact-6][^fact-10]. ## Verdict The model leans to a draw as the single most likely outcome with 54% probability, despite a +112 Elo edge for the home side and Fredrikstad’s possession of an in-form contributor in Daniel Eid[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-7]. HamKam’s superior recent points return and Udahl’s scoring run are the counterweights that keep a home victory from being the default expectation[^fact-5][^fact-8]. The clearest statistical arbitrage in the supplied material is the draw in Match Winner versus the Betfair price, flagged as a high-confidence value pick by the model[^fact-6][^fact-10]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 14:00 UTC — Eliteserien [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 39% / Draw 54% / Away 7% (source: model; confidence high, 15 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Fredrikstad vs HamKam — Elo differential +112 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Fredrikstad recent form** — LLLLD last 10: 2-1-7 (W-D-L), 0.70 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 2.30 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **HamKam recent form** — WDWWL last 10: 5-1-4 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 1.80 goals scored / 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Draw in Match Winner — model 54% vs market price 3.75 at Betfair Exchange, edge 27.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Fredrikstad in-form player** — Daniel Eid — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.20. [^fact-8]: **HamKam in-form player** — Henrik Udahl — 4 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.19. [^fact-9]: **Fredrikstad key absence** — Leonard Owusu out (injury), 815 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .