# Fredrikstad vs HamKam > Eliteserien · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 14:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/865) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Fredrikstad win:** 39% - **Draw:** 54% - **HamKam win:** 7% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | h2h | Draw | 3.75 | Betfair Exchange | 54% | +27.3 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Draw priced up despite significant home Elo advantage ## The stage This is an Eliteserien lunchtime kick-off on Sat 16 May 2026, 14:00 UTC[^fact-1]. Fredrikstad are the home side[^fact-3], facing HamKam in a fixture that sits midweek on the calendar and will be judged by both sides as an opportunity to arrest form or consolidate momentum. ## Form & momentum Recent form charts two contrasting trajectories. Fredrikstad arrive on a poor run, collecting just 2 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses in their last 10 competitive outings (2-1-7), producing 0.70 points per game while averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per match[^fact-4]. HamKam look noticeably healthier: 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses in their last 10 (5-1-4), 1.60 points per game with 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Those form lines are complicated by an Elo picture that still favours the hosts: the model applies a +112 Elo-point edge to Fredrikstad after home advantage is accounted for[^fact-3]. That gap helps explain why the model produces a counterintuitive probability split where the draw is the single largest outcome at 54%, with a home win at 39% and an away win a long 7% chance — the model also flags that its top probability exceeds the runner-up by 15 percentage points, indicating high confidence in that ordering[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Fredrikstad's recent attacking spark includes Daniel Eid, who has 1 goal and 1 assist across his last five appearances and an average match rating of 7.13[^fact-7]. HamKam's form man is Henrik Udahl: four goals in his last five outings with an average rating of 7.19[^fact-8]. The most consequential absence named in the provided facts is Leonard Owusu, who is out injured after contributing 815 minutes in the run-up to this period; that workload suggests his missing influence on Fredrikstad's engine room will be non-trivial[^fact-9]. No other specific personnel details are provided in the supplied facts. ## Where the model sees value The model identifies one clear market discrepancy: the Match Winner market shows a substantial edge on the draw. The model prices the draw at 54% while the Betfair Exchange market offers about 3.75 on a draw, producing an implied model-market gap of 27.3 percentage points and flagged with high confidence[^fact-6]. Across the broader comparison set, three markets were analysed against the model[^fact-10]. Put together, the signals are distinct: form suggests HamKam are the hotter team[^fact-5], Elo (with home advantage) and the model still respect a measurable Fredrikstad edge[^fact-3], and market prices appear to underweight the draw relative to the model's probability distribution[^fact-6][^fact-2]. ## Verdict The model leans most strongly to a draw at 54% while still assigning a meaningful chance to a Fredrikstad home win (39%) and only a small probability to a HamKam victory (7%); the standout actionable mismatch inside the provided facts is the draw versus the market price[^fact-2][^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 14:00 UTC — Eliteserien [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 39% / Draw 54% / Away 7% (source: model; confidence high, 15 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Fredrikstad vs HamKam — Elo differential +112 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Fredrikstad recent form** — LLLLD last 10: 2-1-7 (W-D-L), 0.70 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 2.30 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **HamKam recent form** — WDWWL last 10: 5-1-4 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 1.80 goals scored / 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Draw in Match Winner — model 54% vs market price 3.75 at Betfair Exchange, edge 27.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Fredrikstad in-form player** — Daniel Eid — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.13. [^fact-8]: **HamKam in-form player** — Henrik Udahl — 4 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.19. [^fact-9]: **Fredrikstad key absence** — Leonard Owusu out (injury), 815 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .