# Sporting Charleroi vs Westerlo > Pro League · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 14:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/866) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Sporting Charleroi 0–1 Westerlo ## Model verdict - **Sporting Charleroi win:** 76% - **Draw:** 14% - **Westerlo win:** 10% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Tight probabilities and defensive edges set to decide clash ## The stage Kickoff is set for Sat 16 May 2026, 14:00 UTC in the Pro League[^fact-1]. The match sits late in the campaign calendar and the model produces an almost binary match-up on win probability: Home 47% / Draw 46% / Away 7% (model confidence low, 1 pp gap to runner-up)[^fact-2]. There is no venue claim available in the supplied facts, so focus turns to the numbers the model and markets have produced. ## Form & momentum Sporting Charleroi arrive on the back of a WWWDL sequence across their last 10 with a points-per-game rate of 1.40; they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per match in that run[^fact-4]. Westerlo show an identical 4-2-4 W-D-L split in ten but with slightly different returns: 1.40 PPG, 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per match[^fact-5]. On pure Elo terms, Sporting Charleroi carry a sizable edge once home advantage is applied: an Elo differential of +144 points in SPC’s favour[^fact-3]. That Elo cushion helps explain why the model still leans to the home side despite the slim model margins between a Charleroi win and a draw[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel The most in-form Charleroi offensive influence in recent matches is Kevin Van Den Kerkhof: 1 goal and 3 assists in his last five appearances, with an average rating of 7.28[^fact-9]. Westerlo’s most notable form player is Allahyar Sayyadmanesh, who has 2 goals and 1 assist in his last five and an average rating of 6.95[^fact-10]. Each side is also missing a significant contributor through injury: Yassine Titraoui is out for Sporting Charleroi, having played 550 minutes in the recent run[^fact-11], while Isa Sakamoto is absent for Westerlo after 656 minutes in the recent run[^fact-12]. Those absences remove familiar minutes and must be weighed alongside the attacking returns of Van Den Kerkhof and Sayyadmanesh[^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value Three market lines were compared against the model[^fact-13], and the model highlights clear edges where market prices diverge from its probabilities. First, the model puts heavy value on a draw: model probability 46% versus a Pinnacle market price of 3.89, yielding an edge of 20.0 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6][^fact-13]. Second, the model favours under 2.5 goals — model 54% versus a bet365 market price of 2.30, an edge of 10.9 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-7][^fact-13]. Third, the model finds a smaller but notable edge on Both Teams to Score — the model says No at 47% versus a bet365 price of 2.37, an edge of 5.0 percentage points (mid confidence)[^fact-8][^fact-13]. The combination of Charleroi’s modest scoring and conceding averages and Westerlo’s similar defensive profile underpins the under-2.5 and BTTS-No leanings in the model[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The draw view is mechanically consistent with the model’s tight Home/Draw split and the small gap to the runner-up probability[^fact-2][^fact-6]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is toward the home side but only just — Home 47% with Draw 46% and Away 7% (low confidence and a single percentage-point margin between the top two outcomes)[^fact-2]. The statistical texture behind that split is a meaningful Elo cushion for Charleroi[^fact-3], mirrored by similar recent-form profiles and low scoring rates that drive value on under 2.5 goals and a neither-team-to-score outcome[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 14:00 UTC — Pro League [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 47% / Draw 46% / Away 7% (source: model; confidence low, 1 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — SPC vs KVC — Elo differential +144 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **SPC recent form** — WWWDL last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **KVC recent form** — LDLWL last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Draw in Match Winner — model 46% vs market price 3.89 at Pinnacle, edge 20.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.30 at bet365, edge 10.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 47% vs market price 2.37 at bet365, edge 5.0 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-9]: **SPC in-form player** — Kevin Van Den Kerkhof — 1 goals, 3 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.28. [^fact-10]: **KVC in-form player** — Allahyar Sayyadmanesh — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.95. [^fact-11]: **SPC key absence** — Yassine Titraoui out (injury), 550 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **KVC key absence** — Isa Sakamoto out (injury), 656 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .